Bundesliga matchday 14, Saturday, 14.12.2024 at 15:30
In the Champions League, Bayern claimed an important three points against Donetsk, the top 8 are still possible, which FCB desperately want to reach in order to qualify directly for the round of 16. Munich are at the top of the Bundesliga table.
On Saturday, they face Mainz on matchday 14, an opponent that has been able to hurt them from time to time and has recently picked up plenty of points. Bayern are also still struggling with injury worries. Harry Kane is unlikely to be back against the Nullfünfer.
In my Mainz Bayern betting tip at NEO.bet, I’m going for a classic “over 2.5 goals” sports bet.
A 4:2 win over Heidenheim last Saturday and a 5:1 win over Donetsk, FC Bayern’s offense had a lot of fun in the last two games. But as is so often the case, FCB did not have an easy game against Heidenheim, with the score standing at 2:1 for a long time and then 3:2 in the meantime.
Heidenheim were mercilessly efficient, scoring two goals from their two shots, and had just 17 per cent possession in the match. At Schalke, Kevin then shocked the German record champions by putting Donetsk ahead in the fifth minute. But the favorites only needed five minutes to equalize.
The bookmakers’ forecast
The bookmakers don’t see this match as a clear-cut affair, but I would actually have expected the odds to be slightly lower for the visitors. Bayern have tasty 1.50 odds, not bad for a team that has won ten out of 13 games and is still unbeaten.
Mainz start the match with odds of 6.00, with a draw (4.35) rated as slightly more likely. Where do the rather high odds for Munich come from? I’ll get to that in a moment, let’s first see how the AI rates the odds.
KI prediction Mainz vs. Bayern: ChatGPT
We asked ChatGPT again for three odds with different risk levels. She sees low risk in the bet that FCB will score the first goal of the match. We’re at around 1.42.
That’s too low for me and it’s generally not my market. Pressing Bayern can get a little shock at the start, as they did against Donetsk. Bayern haven’t scored first in their last four games, and didn’t score at all against Leverkusen.
In addition, Mainz have scored first in their last four games. So I don’t see any value in this bet, although the AI usually meets my taste so often, especially in the low-risk selection.
The AI probably refers the bet to the last duels, in fact Bayern has always scored the first goal in the last six duels, but most of the games were a while ago.
The over 3.5 goals that ChatGPT sees as medium risk make me laugh a lot more. We get odds in the mid-two range for this. Both the direct duels and the past matches between the teams have been spectacular.
From the high odds shelf, the artificial intelligence has brought out the Bayern handicap with -2 goals, where we are around 3.80.
I think Mainz will put in a strong performance, but ultimately FCB have scored nine goals in their last two games, even without Kane. On a very good day, I wouldn’t be particularly surprised if Munich won by a landslide. I wouldn’t rule it out, but it’s too hot for me.
Analysis: Mainz vs. Bayern
If the top striker with clearly the most goals is missing, that is first and foremost a weakening. At the same time, however, it’s also an opportunity for other players and a different offensive awareness. The task of scoring now weighs even more heavily on the other shoulders.
A good nine goals against the smaller teams Heidenheim and Donetsk should not be compared with the tight results against PSG, Leverkusen and BVB, but I would still say that FCB will get through this phase very well.
The English center forward may also be on the pitch on Saturday. Max Eberl at least said otherwise after the Champions League match. Thomas Müller, who scored against Donetsk, is currently leading the line.
He was surrounded by Jamal Musiala, Michael Olise and Leroy Sane, which is still concentrated top quality, even if Leroy Sane has not yet found his feet this season. In the center, Bayern can rely on its most important players.
Raphael Guerreiro is also no weak replacement for Alphonso Davies. Daniel Peretz has also done well between the posts so far.
Rating Analysis
So much for Bayern, who I still believe can win against any opponent even with this line-up. Nevertheless, I’m not taking the bet because they’re facing FSV, who have had a good few weeks.
Well, it wasn’t enough to score against Wolfsburg, but Bo Henriksen’s team delivered another strong performance in the 3:4 draw. The three league games before that were all won against Kiel (3:0), Hoffenheim (2:0) and Dortmund (3:1).
With the two draws before that against Freiburg (0:0) and Gladbach (1:1), it was five games without defeat before the narrow Wolfsburg defeat and the Nullfünfer were the team with the better chances against the Lower Saxons.
Wolfsburg only turned the game on its head in the closing stages after Mainz had previously taken the lead three times. However, the match also showed me that a well-formed offense can still hurt Mainz. Kiel and Hoffenheim before that weren’t exactly the benchmark.
That’s why I’m clearly leaning towards an over-goal bet. The goal alone for both teams is already around 1.65. In combination with over 2.5 goals, we are already scratching at a 2.00 mark. After all, Mainz have scored in five of their last six league games.
Mainz vs Bayern odds: Fewer personnel problems for the hosts
Of the two Bayern loan players Gabriel Vidovic and Armindo Sieb, we will see at most one face of Munich in a Mainz shirt on Saturday.
Vidovic is missing through injury. In contrast to Munich, Mainz have much more choice, with only Danny da Costa missing alongside the winger.
Bayern again with a shortage of outfield players
Bayern still have a good squad, but they cannot afford to have any more players injured in certain positions, as that would give the record champions a more serious quality problem.
As in almost every season, we’re mainly talking about the flanks, with Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman once again missing alongside Davies and Josip Stanisic.
This won’t be Bayern’s first trip to the Mewa Arena this season.
A month and a half ago, the teams faced each other in the second round of the cup, a clear 4-0 win for the Munich side, who have since been eliminated themselves after losing 1-0 to Leverkusen.
Last season, Bayern also won 3-1 in Mainz, at the time with Thomas Tuchel on the bench. The reunion at the Allianz Arena was an even bigger thrashing for the Nullfünfer in the form of an 8-1 defeat.
15 goals in the last three games against Mainz, a nice haul. As far as my bet is concerned, we’ve seen 14 matches in a row between the two clubs with over 2.5 goals
Lots of Bayern goals, so a goalscorer bet is also a good idea! Musiala is becoming more and more dangerous, whether with or without Kane on the pitch, the 3.05 for the dribbling man with the 42 is top, found at LeoVegas!
The ten-man has scored in three of the last four games, as he now does with his head in the German national team. He scored a total of seven goals against Heidenheim and Donetsk.
My Mainz Bayern tip:
The squad is currently thin at Bayern and there is a lack of an equivalent replacement, especially at the center forward position. And then there’s the double burden of the Champions League, which is slowly dragging on, and which was on the agenda again on Tuesday.
Against Mainz, who have only lost one of their previous six matches, I wouldn’t dare bet on Bayern winning. Especially as Munich have also lost a few games at the Mewa Arena this decade.
At the same time, I’m convinced that teams with a well-oiled offense can hurt the Nullfünner, who are currently very accurate themselves. And Bayern is definitely one of them, even without Kane after scoring nine goals in the last two games.
It didn’t take me long to find the perfect odds, and with over 2.5 goals in one match this Champions League week, I’ve already had the right instinct.
I expect the 15th game in a row between Mainz and Bayern with at least three goals! By the way, NEO.bet is one of the betting providers without tax.
My Mainz Bayern prediction: Over 2.5 goals
