NFL 2024/25: Dolphins – 49ers
The official Dolphins 49ers odds from most betting providers without tax – but also those with tax – are trading the guests as underdogs in Miami on Sunday. No wonder I jumped at this opportunity!
In my Dolphins 49ers betting tip, I will go into great detail about the many reasons why the Californians have a clear advantage. From the returnees in the 49ers’ defense to the weak pass defense of the Floridians, I won’t leave anything out!
In this duel between the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers, it is strictly speaking about two teams that could theoretically still reach the postseason!
However, the 49ers are traveling to Miami in a significantly worse position after being beaten 12-6 by the Los Angeles Rams on the last day of play, reducing their playoff chances to just 1%.
Of course, hope dies last, and so San Francisco will do everything they can to experience a Christmas American football miracle and keep their now microscopic chance of making it into the postseason alive with a win against Miami!
Miami is by no means unbeatable this season. In particular, their defense has proven vulnerable in recent weeks.
In their last three games, the Dolphins defense has allowed an average of 5.8 yards per game and is thus among the weaker teams in the league in terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap – in fact, they rank 26th in the league in this rating.
In addition, they are quite vulnerable against zone defenses when playing the ball, which is particularly advantageous for quarterbacks with a high football IQ like Brock Purdy.
Purdy is one of the best QBs in the league when it comes to playing against zone defenses, as his outstanding passer rating against these game concepts proves.
A real advantage for the 49ers, who should be able to exploit these and other weaknesses in Miami’s defense.
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In addition, the Dolphins defense has the problem that it exerts little pressure on the quarterback. Their mixture of zone and man coverage often does not work as desired, as their weaknesses are particularly evident in zone defense.
They even rank 30th in team coverage according to PFF, which is an ideal scenario for a smart QB like Purdy. He will have little trouble finding open targets and dominating the game with plenty of short passes.
So unless Miami makes significant adjustments in Week 16, it could be a long afternoon for their defense.
But the 49ers have plenty going on on the other side of the ball as well. The return of key players like Dre Greenlaw and Joey Bosa significantly strengthens the defense. After a week of rest with a mini-bye last week, they can now travel to Miami as a cohesive unit.
This could be especially important to hold off the explosive Dolphins offense, which remains one of the most dangerous in the league.
But the 49ers have shown multiple times this season that when they are at full strength, they are able to stop even the strongest offenses! And when their defense is at its best, it will be difficult for Miami to maintain its own offensive flow.
Another aspect in favor of the 49ers is the “knowledge” they have of the Dolphins’ system. Mike McDaniel was once Shanahan’s assistant and built the Dolphins’ offense based on the 49ers’ model.
This means that Shanahan and his players should be excellently prepared and know McDaniel’s plays well. And if we look at the last time the two teams faced each other, in December 2022, this aspect actually speaks in favor of the 49ers!
They won 33-17, with the defense snapping three interceptions and recovering a fumble. San Francisco dominated the game thanks to its defense, which will certainly give them added confidence heading into Sunday’s game!
Last but not least, the Dolphins will have to do without some of their key players, most notably wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who is questionable with a knee injury, and starting left tackle Terron Armstead, who is still out.
This could significantly weaken the “Fins” offense, especially if Waddle is unable to play. Without him, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa might have a harder time maintaining the explosiveness in the passing offense that has made them so successful this season.
In summary, the 49ers have the better cards to win this game.
Despite their current difficult situation and playoff chances, which are now only 1%, they have a strong defense, excellent quarterback play and the necessary experience to hold their own against a struggling Dolphins team.
The Floridians may have their strengths in offense, but their defensive vulnerability and injury problems make them a vulnerable opponent. The 49ers will do everything they can to use their “last hoorah” and beat Miami.
My Dolphins 49ers prediction: San Francisco wins and hopes for help from elsewhere!
