Bundesliga 18. Matchday, Sunday, 19.01.2025 at 3:30 pm
The good news for Union Berlin: at some point it can’t go any further down! The Irons are increasingly falling behind in the Bundesliga, but from Sunday, at the start of the second half of the season, there is the next glimmer of hope that something may finally change for the better.
So what are the chances of the Irons in my Union Berlin Mainz tip? I would like to put it this way: in theory, there is always a chance, but in practice, in my opinion, it looks relatively bleak.
The stumbling hosts only have history to thank for the fact that I am only betting on the double chance X2 here.
The 05ers lost very narrowly to Bayer Leverkusen last time out, will start the second half of the season in sixth place and are doing very well away from home. It must therefore definitely be due to the head-to-head that the win odds of the two teams hardly differ.
This is good news for the capital city team, because if you look at the last few weeks and months, you might well come to the conclusion that staying in the league could be incredibly difficult.
Well, I’ll now take a close look at what we can expect from both teams. And of course, I’ll also provide enough facts to show why I’m not predicting a home win here.
The betting providers’ prediction?
Two points from the last ten games (the match against Bochum ended 0:2 on the green table)? Union Berlin can’t actually go into the 18th matchday with this record! But in fact, there is still a minimal lead over the relegation zone.
If you want to bet on the Irons on Sunday, you get odds of 2.60. The odds for Mainz don’t go much higher, with 2.80 possible here. Knowing full well that the 05ers have only won one of their last twelve games against Union.
Mainz is looking up towards Europe, Union needs points to stay away from the relegation places. Who would benefit from a draw? Nobody, of course! Should we see a draw on Sunday anyway, the bookmakers would reward it with odds of 3.25.
KI-Prognose Union Berlin vs Mainz: That’s what ChatGPT tips for
The crisis at Union Berlin naturally also presents ChatGPT with an interesting task, because I have nevertheless had the AI make some hot betting tips for me. And especially the one that is high-risk is a tough one!
A home win with a 0-1 handicap? That would be a huge surprise! To be honest, I can’t imagine Union winning comfortably against Mainz, especially since all three home wins this season have been very close.
The bet “Union win draw no bet” quantifies the low-risk area. This means that you bet on a win for the hosts, but get your stake back and lose nothing if the game ends in a draw. My conclusion: possible, but also a bit risky given Mainz’s strength.
On the other hand, I agree with the bet that, according to the AI, is worthwhile despite the relatively low risk: Under 2.5 goals. Union have not scored in six of their last nine games (on the green table), and for that reason alone I don’t think we’ll see a spectacle here.
Analysis: Union Berlin vs Mainz
Please just forget the 2023/24 season! Union Berlin started the new season with this simple goal, and at first it looked like they would achieve it. That is, until the month of November sent disaster to the capital.
A 3-0 defeat at Bayern Munich marked the beginning of a dismal spell that continues to this day. This was followed by a goalless draw against Freiburg and seven defeats in a row, although the one against Bochum would have been a 1-1 draw from a purely sporting point of view.
But even that would not break the streak, since nine meetings were not won with only two points. Six times in the mentioned period, no goals were scored, only five goals (six with the against Bochum) were scored.
The year 2025 began with even more difficulties for the team. First, they traveled to Heidenheim, where the crisis was almost even worse. The result: a sobering 0-2.
Odds Analysis
I think the mood at Union Berlin is pretty tense, and I also know about the offensive weakness. Since Mainz has only conceded two goals before half-time in their last ten games, I can well imagine a 0-0 at half-time.
The odds for this are 2.55. Or should you also bet on Union not scoring at all on this 18th matchday? That’s also a good option, with the corresponding value being 3.30.
If I had to choose an outright betting option, a 0-1 scoreline would catch my eye. It perfectly encapsulates Union’s problems, and the odds of 8.50 are good enough for you anyway.
Union Berlin vs. Mainz: Will history decide the game?
A few days later, Union hosted FC Augsburg, a team that had not won a single away game. What happened? They lost again, 2-0. No goals, no points, and that against direct competitors in the relegation battle!
They have also conceded at least two goals in each of their last six games. The new coach Steffen Baumgart should know how much work awaits him in the coming weeks and months.
Does anyone still remember that this season began with four home wins and a draw against Eintracht Frankfurt? Josip Juranovi and Ivan Prtajin are still missing two important players, and Tom Rothe will still be suspended against Mainz.
Mainz wants to react immediately
At least the fans know: Union Berlin have only lost one of their last twelve games against Mainz and are currently on a four-game home winning streak! These victories produced an impressive 13 goals, something the Irons can only dream of today.
How do the Mainz players deal with the fact that they have such a poor record against Union? They can confidently focus on the current situation, because sixth place after the first half of the season is really strong!
Last Tuesday, they lost again after three wins in a row, but a 1-0 defeat at Leverkusen happened very quickly. In any case, the defeat was not what hurt the Mainz team the most afterwards.
Jonathan Burkardt, who had only just returned from injury in the 2-0 win over Bochum and scored twice, was substituted off injured. It is still unclear how long he will be out for.
Since the striker has already scored a strong twelve goals, an absence, no matter how long, would be very bitter. We are, of course, familiar with the carnival club’s away statistics: they have only suffered two defeats since the beginning of March 2024.
Three wins and a draw? After the first four defeats this season, the Rhine Hessians always came back very strongly. Well, maybe this time the situation is a little different, because for the first time the team is playing away twice in a row.
In mid-October, Mainz went into the break behind for the last time, so getting off to a good start in the first 45 minutes is definitely one of the team’s strengths.
My Union Berlin Mainz Tip:
The mood in the capital is not exactly bombastic, at least not if you support the Irons! Union Berlin continues to struggle, with goalless defeats against Heidenheim and Augsburg being alarming.
On the other side, Mainz 05 is an opponent that is in much better form. They may fear for Jonathan Burkardt, but the Rhine Hessians know how to convince, especially away from home, without their superstar.
The only reason I am not betting on an away win is because they have done quite poorly in direct comparisons. In this respect, I have decided on the following bet:
Mainz will not lose at the Alte Försterei!
