Europa League, Thursday, 23/01/2025 at 9:00 pm
In the Serie A, the train seems to have left the station for the championship, but another competition could still go in their favor. Because according to almost all sports betting providers, there are only three other clubs that could win the Europa League 2024/25 sooner than Lazio.
For the upcoming matchday against Real Sociedad, a win could not only secure the lead in the table for the Italians, but also pave the way for them to top the list of favorites.
In my Lazio Real Sociedad betting tip, I expect an open game and plenty of goal-scoring opportunities on both sides for a number of reasons.
The Romans’ rise in the bookmakers’ favor can be quickly explained. Lazio have won five of their six Europa League games this season and are aiming to win more games in a single European campaign than they have since the 2017/18 season (7 wins).
Consequently, they are slightly favored in the betting markets against the Basques on Thursday.
But does that also justify Lazio Rom Real Sociedad bets on the “Biancocelesti”? In my prediction, I will rather convince you that there are far more interesting betting options that are worth betting on without risk with the Interwetten free bet.
The bookmakers’ prediction
The Lazio Rom Real Sociedad betting odds published a few days ago reflect an interesting mix of respect and uncertainty.
Lazio are slight favorites with odds of 2.30, which seems justified given that they are playing at home and have been stable lately.
Nevertheless, at 3.35 for a win by the guests from San Sebastián, it is clear that Real Sociedad cannot be dismissed as outsiders either.
The 3.15 for a draw also underlines that the bookmakers tend to expect an exciting, hard-fought game.
KI prediction Lazio vs Real Sociedad: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
A Lazio Rom Real Sociedad AI prediction is now de rigueur. That’s because ChatGPT regularly provides me and my betting friends with meaningful suggestions – and this time is no different!
Because “Both teams scoring in the 1st half” is shown as a risky suggestion, but it does not have a microscopically small probability of success.
In 50% of all Europa League games involving Real Sociedad this season, both teams have actually scored at least one goal in the first half!
The second tip, that Lazio will win, is not a suggestion that I would immediately endorse at odds of 2.32.
I will give you a few good reasons later on why Marco Baroni’s struggling side could switch down a gear on Thursday.
The supposedly safe bet – no goals between the 30th and 45th minute – is quite interesting, though at odds of around 1.45, I wouldn’t necessarily call it profitable.
But in fact, the phase in which the Basques usually concede goals – and I will explain this in more detail later – is often at the very beginning or end of a game.
Analysis: Lazio vs Real Sociedad
The Stadio Olimpico is gearing up for an evening to remember as Lazio host Real Sociedad in the Europa League group stage match on matchday 7.
The hosts are currently in great form in general, having beaten Verona 3-0 to secure a place in the top four in the Serie A.
Internationally, things are going even better: the Eagles are top of the UEL table with an almost flawless record (5 wins, 1 draw).
Qualification for the knockout stage is now assured and they will be looking to better their record from the 2017/18 campaign when they celebrated seven wins in a single European campaign – a feat they have not achieved since.
Lazio will take extra confidence from the fact that Real Sociedad have never won an away game against a Serie A side (2 draws, 3 defeats) and are without a win in their last eight meetings against Italian teams.
“La Real” even travel to Rome with an embarrassing 1-0 defeat against La Liga bottom-of-the-league Valencia in their minds.
Lazio will want to take this opportunity to further harass the guests and continue their own European winning streak. At least that is the narrative proclaimed by the bookmakers for Thursday, which I do not quite agree with.
Odds Analysis
In my opinion, the selection “Over 2.5 goals” at odds of around 2.25 offers the greatest added value.
After all, both clubs have already scored more than 2.5 goals in 4 of their 6 Europa League appearances! So why not a fifth time?
Furthermore, the Basques would need a win to then storm into the top 8 with another three points against PAOK on the last matchday. A draw against Lazio, on the other hand, would probably not be enough.
So it is quite possible that Real Sociedad will want to play aggressively for the win on Thursday.
Lazio vs. Real Sociedad Odds: No La Liga clubs, please!
Are you sure you want to bet on Lazio? Take a look at these numbers and think again.
Lazio have only won one of their last 13 meetings with Spanish teams in all competitions, losing six of the last seven (1 draw).
Personally, this record has certainly prompted me to rethink my Lazio Rome Real Sociedad tip!
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Lazio must think of Fiorentina!
I don’t rule out that it will be a game on Thursday in which it comes down to business early or very late. After all, Sociedad has conceded a total of five goals in the first or last 15 minutes in their last four away games in the UEFA Europa League.
However, I tend to focus more on an early goal, since Lazio already scored against Ajax Amsterdam in the 12th minute on the last matchday.
For me, there are only two veteran players who are “eternal”. These are clearly the Portuguese Pepe and the Spaniard Pedro.
Speaking of Pedro: no player has scored more goals and provided more assists in this Europa League season than 37-year-old Pedro (4 goals, 2 assists).
He has only scored more than four goals in two other European seasons – 5 for Barcelona in 2010/11 and 5 for Chelsea in 2018/19. Given that he has just recovered and played well against Verona, he could now also be successful against Real.
Football is, of course, decided on the pitch, but there are still some considerations that coach Marco Baroni has to think about before he possibly throws his best players into the fray on Thursday.
Lazio are almost certain to reach the last sixteen and have to play in the Serie A against AC Florence just three days after the clash against the Basques in what feels like a “six-point game”.
Since they are already missing important players like Vecino and Lazzari, I could well imagine that the successful coach of the capital city team will give Pedro and other rotation players a chance against the Basques.
My Lazio Rom Real Sociedad betting tip:
Lazio are already safely through and at the same time have to think about the important Serie A game against Fiorentina next weekend, while Real Sociedad have to deliver a strong response on the pitch after their embarrassing defeat against Valencia.
Since they absolutely need back-to-back wins to advance directly to the last 16, I expect them to show their own fans what they are made of at the Olimpico on Thursday.
My Lazio vs Real Sociedad prediction: Over 2.5 goals.
