Serie A, Sunday, 26/01/2025 at 12:30 pm
Milan are by no means winning every game yet, but generally speaking, I’m confident that it was the right decision to replace the coach. With a little time and patience, Sérgio Conceiçãos’ work will bear fruit, I am sure of it.
What about the promoted team at the weekend? Actually, it looks good. The “Rossoneri” seem more stable and determined under their new head coach.
However, a potentially successful AC Milan Parma tip should better not assume a clean sheet for the home side, as you will soon find out.
If you look at Milan’s recent results, it is clear that their 1-0 win over Girona in the Champions League group stage on Wednesday was definitely an important step towards the top eight.
This success came after the 2-0 defeat to Juventus in Serie A, which of course still hurts a little, but did not break the positive trend.
With four wins from their last six competitive games – including the Supercoppa triumph – the Rossoneri have shown that they are on the right track under new coach Sérgio Conceição.
What’s more, the home record of the Milan team in the league is exceptionally promising – one of the best of the season, with only one defeat in 10 Serie A home games: 4 wins, 5 draws.
But if the Rossoneri really want to aim for the Europa League places, they have to finally end their recent streak of three draws at home. Especially because Parma is “only” a promoted team visiting.
And that should actually be possible! Because Milan has the quality to fight its way up… and with the new coach, the necessary motivator is now standing on the sidelines.
Parma, on the other hand, is in a very different situation. With just one win in their last seven games, the visitors are only one point above the relegation zone.
However, the 1-1 draw against fellow strugglers FC Venezia was a small sign of life.
However, defense remains a real problem – with 36 goals conceded, Parma have the second-worst defense in Serie A, only Verona have conceded more.
And the newly promoted team’s away weakness doesn’t make things any easier: three games in a row without scoring and four games without a win. That doesn’t bode well!
In their last few games against teams from the upper half of the table, there have also been some harsh defeats, such as against Inter and Roma, with a total of eight goals conceded.
Therefore, I believe that, regardless of the actual final score, if the home team plays seriously, they should also be able to score multiple times against the “Gialloblù”.
Parma’s poor record in away games against Milan is also striking. Nine of their last ten duels in Milan have ended in defeat for the “Gialloblù” – and Parma have always conceded at least two goals per appearance.
So, looking at the last trends and form curves of both teams, Milan are the clear favorites. Parma will have to work hard if they want to get anything out of this game.
And that will be difficult, especially against a team that now seems to be back on track.
If we take a look at the AC Milan Parma odds, there are a few interesting betting scenarios that you shouldn’t miss.
Milan have not conceded a goal in the first half in eight of their last nine home games. This suggests that the Rossoneri will not give the guests much space either, at least until half-time.
A betting tip based on this could be: “Parma not scoring before half-time” at odds of around 1.45.
However, the direct duels between the two teams have always produced goals. In 12 of the last 13 meetings, both teams have scored at least once.
“Both teams score” at an even slightly higher average odds of around 1.75, so I like it a little bit more.
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: In the end, after much deliberation, I decided on the special bet “Milan scores in both halves”.
Parma could lose without conceding a goal, especially since they have not conceded a goal in over 270 Serie A minutes of play away from home. But direct duels often develop a very special dynamic that seems to inspire the promoted team.
The “Gialloblù” were already able to shock the Milan side in the first leg, winning 2-1 – and I expect a somewhat fiercer defense this time as well.
But no matter how fierce it may be, Milan’s offensive department should still be able to score a goal in each half…
My tip: Milan will score at least once in each half against Parma.
