FA Cup, 4th round, Saturday, 08/02/2025 at 18:45
One cup competition follows hot on the heels of the next on the island! Newcastle have just reached the final of the EFL Cup, while the FA Cup is not until the 4th round a few days later. The trip that leads to the top of League One.
Surely an achievable task, but will the forces be enough against a highly motivated outsider? I would like to answer that now in my Birmingham Newcastle tip and also tell you why I am betting on a 2-0 handicap for the hosts here.
It’s quite simple with these cup games: they simply have their own laws! Newcastle United reached the final of the EFL Cup a few days ago, having little trouble beating Arsenal 2-0 in the second leg.
Brentford, Chelsea and Nottingham have already knocked the Magpies out of this competition, so it seems that 2024/25 is a particularly good time for them. Before the Premier League continues, another cup awaits.
Is Newcastle just as confident in the FA Cup? They last made the final in 1999, but in the last 18 seasons, they have been knocked out in round 4 or even earlier 16 times (!), and some of their opponents were quite small fry!
The white and blacks will have to be on their guard this weekend, because anyone who beats Arsenal twice to nil should not show any weakness against a third division club.
Sounds like there is a clear favorite? In this game maybe, because our German betting providers are showing average odds of 1.47 to 5.90. The situation is quite different on Saturday night.
That’s when the Super Bowl finally awaits us, with the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Philadelphia Eagles – again! Betting fans have carefully analyzed the repetition of the 2024 final for this very purpose and have all the odds ready.
At Bet365 you can benefit from odds of 2. What I don’t know, of course, is whether this is the first cup final they’ve reached, or whether Newcastle last made it this far in the EFL Cup in 2023.
Wins against Arsenal take a toll, so will they be resting players or rotating them on Saturday? The last time Newcastle and Birmingham faced each other was in the 2016/17 season, with the two teams meeting twice in the Championship and FA Cup.
Two draws and two wins, Newcastle came out of it unscathed. But you can ignore the history, because they haven’t played each other since. How will Birmingham approach the game against the EFL Cup finalists?
The League One leaders already have an eight-point lead over third place, so things are looking good in terms of direct promotion. Ten wins and three draws, four goals conceded, things are going well in the league!
In the FA Cup, the Blues recently knocked out Lincoln City 2-1, winning 2-1 against Blackpool and 1-0 against Sutton. Very close results, but they have only scored four times with three goals in the league.
Since 2012, the club has only reached the fifth round once in the current competition, and is facing elimination in the fourth round for the third time in a row. Eliminated by Leicester, Blackburn, Plymouth, Birmingham has not really felt comfortable in recent years.
Newcastle have to play in the next cup competition after their celebrated double victory against Arsenal, and from a purely historical point of view, they like the FA Cup a lot less! Will it be as close as the 3-1 win against Bromley?
Nobody knows for sure which stars will be given a break on Saturday. Birmingham are top of League One, which has made an excellent impression in my analysis from a defensive point of view.
Since the Magpies have not had the best results in the FA Cup in the last 20 years, I can well imagine that it will be a close game. And that’s why I’m betting:
Birmingham “wins” by a 2-0 handicap!
