Champions League, Wednesday, 12/02/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Just recently, Benfica Lisbon ensured an all-time classic in the premier class in a direct clash with FC Barcelona (4:5). I am hoping for another strong performance from the Portuguese team’s offense in the Monaco Benfica Lisbon betting tip.
This duel is taking place for the second time this Champions League season. The eagles already beat the Monegasques in their own arena (3-2) on matchday five.
However, I leave a classic win bet in the drawer in the Monaco Benfica Lisbon betting tip – the risk is too great for me if it should degenerate into another goal festival.
In addition, the scarlet reds missed a victory in four of the six previous Champions League games. On the other hand, I found consistency in the Benfica offensive values.
Based on this, I consider “Benfica Lisbon over 1.5 goals” to be a profitable bet. I came across some promising odds of 2.30 on the Bet365 site.
I like to browse through the offers on the sites of German betting providers to get a feel for the rough estimates for a pairing.
The odds for a classic three-way bet are close. If you factor in a small home field advantage, you could call it a coin toss game.
Monaco have won three of their four home games this Champions League season (their only home defeat was a 3-2 loss to Benfica), but they are still having to settle for win odds of up to 2.35.
This is less to be understood as criticism of the quality of the hosts and more an expression of the in-form guests, who have packed their bags with the confidence from three competitive wins in a row. Nevertheless, you get about three times the winnings for a “Benfica Lisbon win”.
KI prediction Monaco vs Benfica Lisbon: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Where there’s Champions League, there’s ChatGPT. In times when you suddenly depend on terribly intelligent LLMs to peel your oranges, it can’t hurt if the AI makes a few betting suggestions.
ChatGPT sees the high risk in the bet “Double chance X2 & Over 2.5 goals”. I have to admit that I don’t think the tip is that far-fetched. Would a 2-2 be a big surprise?
At medium risk, the AI has picked a classic – and rejected it. However, I find it difficult to agree with “Both teams score – No”. After all, a high-scoring contest is not unlikely.
The low risk is occupied by the “Over 2.5 goals” bet. And here I have to agree unreservedly. In Monaco, it should simply be a good game.
Eight match days were completed in the league phase. In the end, only the goal difference stood between Monaco (17th) and Benfica Lisbon (16th). Expect two very crisp matches at eye level.
I was a little more convinced by the Lisbon team. Although Barcelona got the better end in the 4-5 defeat, it was a pleasure for any fan of attacking football.
The scarlet reds did not have to worry about this defeat for long. One matchday later, Bruno Lage’s team beat Juventus Turin 2-0 (2.18:0.95 xG).
If I had to choose one of the two attacking lines in this comparison, I would always choose the away offense.
Monaco (13) scored only three goals less than Benfica (16). However, in my opinion, the quality differences are much greater. If you compare the expected goals of Monaco (11.6 xG) and the eagles (17.3 xG), you know what I’m talking about.
Even when comparing the expected goals against, the Lisbon team (10.2 xGA) performs better than Adi Hütter’s team (13.1 xGA).
After 180 minutes played, I therefore expect the Portuguese to advance. The odds for this are around 1.70, but can be increased with a odds boost.
Odds Analysis
Monaco impressed on the first matchday with a 2-1 win over Barcelona. The Monegasques took their momentum into the next CL matches and picked up 10 out of a possible 12 points from the first four fixtures.
However, the level of their opponents (Dinamo Zagreb, Red Star Belgrade and Bologna) was limited. As soon as they faced stronger opponents, their winning streak came to an end.
Hütter’s team have lost three of their last four games in the premier league and are in danger of another defeat in my Monaco Benfica Lisbon betting tip. An interest in an Interwetten freebet at odds of 2.90 for a “Benfica Lisbon win” definitely exists.
Monaco vs. Benfica Lisbon Odds: Accuracy Pays Off
For my Monaco Benfica Lisbon tip, analyzing the chances created is worthwhile. Let’s start with the following, perhaps surprising, info: Monaco and Benfica have each taken 70 shots so far.
Nevertheless, the expected goals of the hosts (11.6 xG) and the scarlet reds (17.3 xG) show a huge difference. To explain this absurd discrepancy, a glance at the rate of shots on target is enough.
In this category, Lisbon leads the entire field of participants in the Champions League (64.3 percent) – Monaco is more in line with the average (51.4 percent).
In addition, Bruno Lage’s selection has often found good ways to combine into promising finishing positions. Only five teams took fewer shots from outside the box than the Portuguese (30 percent).
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Escaped old age?
Angel Di Maria’s star once rose at Benfica Lisbon. That’s exactly where the Argentine returned to before the 2023/2024 season.
The left-footed player is now a proud 37 years old, but he still shows his individual talent on the biggest possible European stage.
Among all players in this year’s CL season, only Raphinha (8) has created more big chances than Di Maria (7). The winger most likes to cross the ball to striker Vangelis Pavlidis.
Pavlidis was signed from Alkmaar before this season and has been a ruthless finisher in this CL campaign.
He has already scored five goals and his 7.2 expected goals on target (5th) reveal that he should have been even more successful with his finishing.
The Monegasque defense will probably give the Adler striker further opportunities to celebrate. Monaco conceded at least 2.29 expected goals in three of their four previous Champions League games and were often outclassed by the top teams.
Adi Hütter doesn’t have a single player to fix the offense. Ten different players have already scored in the former Frankfurt coach’s team.
In the two previous home games, the Monegasques celebrated a total of seven own goals, which helped to boost the self-confidence lost in the most recent CL pairings.
Les Rouges et Blanc’s defense has rarely been fine-tuned lately, making costly mistakes. Monaco have conceded a total of nine goals in their three previous competitive games.
If Benfica simply fits into this average, my Monaco Benfica Lisbon tip is already successful.
The Portuguese top team should be able to create the necessary big chances. Only seven CL participants have had more big chances than the guests so far (30).
My Monaco Benfica Lisbon betting tip:
Benfica have won their last three competitive games in a row and scored “Over 1.5 goals” in each. The guests will confirm this form in France during the week.
Monaco only let themselves be shot down 4-1 by PSG last weekend, allowing the Parisians to score 3.14 expected goals. The number of expected goals conceded was similarly high in the last CL appearance against Inter Milan (0-3) (3.89 xGA).
Similar to the game during the league phase (3:2 win), I expect a formidable performance in the final third and the usual efficiency in finishing from Benfica.
My Monaco Benfica Lisbon tip: Benfica Lisbon over 1.5 goals!
