Premier League, Friday, 14/02/2025 at 9:00 pm
This is not going to work with Europe…! Brighton is currently stuck in really difficult times, the crowning glory was the recent 0-7 defeat against Nottingham. Now the seagulls finally want to produce positive headlines again, it’s against a club from the capital.
Easy, I can already anticipate, the protagonists in my Brighton Chelsea tip do not make it easy for me to name a favorite.
I finally decided to reveal to you now, as a result of my analysis, why I am opting for an Under 3.5 goals here.
Six wins, four draws and two defeats against Chelsea and Liverpool? Manchester United, Tottenham, Newcastle and Manchester City beaten? At the end of November, Brighton realized: a damn decent start to the season!
But before the year finally drew to a close, fans and officials alike were forced to recognize: the slump could not be avoided. Only two of the next twelve games ended in victory, meaning that Brighton had slipped into mid-table.
At first, things seemed to be looking up again, with the seagulls winning 2-0 against Ipswich and 3-1 against Manchester United. But the 0-1 defeat against Everton was a setback again, and things were to get even worse.
Just a few days ago, they conceded a whopping seven goals against Nottingham! It would be perfectly normal to be completely knocked out after such a humiliation.
But Brighton didn’t have much time to worry, because just a few days later they were back in the FA Cup. Funnily enough, their opponents were Chelsea, so within a week they met twice at Falmer Stadium.
And despite the defeat against Nottingham, Brighton pulled themselves together, took a 2-1 win and a place in the next round. The only goal against was scored by the Blues themselves, but that is often not the case…
In 14 of their last 16 Premier League games, a clean sheet was missed, until the end of January, the seagulls only scored twice. The problem: now, for the first time, exactly that has happened twice in a row.
What I also can’t see in the league is a strong record in their own stadium. Only one of the last seven home games ended in victory, and in the last four games only two goals have been scored.
0:1, 0:1, 0:0, 0:2, 1:0, 0:1, 1:0, 0:2, 2:1, 0:0, 1:0? This list of results shows that they regularly sleep through the first half. With 14 goals scored, the average is 2.5 goals per home game, while away from home the figure is almost one goal more.
Brighton have only won three times at home, but with six draws they have only conceded two defeats. Since there have already been five cases of falling behind at half-time, this could be a hot tip for you.
At Interwetten, the “Tip 1” after the first 45 minutes brings you odds of 2.65. Also advisable: claiming the €11 free bet, which you should definitely get with the code “SkiWM25”.
After conceding four goals in four straight matches, Brighton were able to stop their negative run against Chelsea in the FA Cup, securing a 2-1 win. Home wins in the league? A single one, and that was in October 2022!
In the first half of the season, there was nothing to celebrate in the 4-2 defeat, with Cole Palmer scoring all four Chelsea goals. The Blues are also favorites going into the game on Friday, although the lead is rather small with average odds of 2.25 to 2.95.
However, it is by no means the case that Chelsea are playing consistently at home. They have won two of their last three games, but that still only gives them two wins from their last eight rounds.
For a long time, it was the home games that were the problem, but now the situation is changing a little. They have not won away from home in four games, and in that time they have only managed two measly goals.
Are the days of 5-1 against Southampton, 4-3 against Tottenham, 3-0 against West Ham or 6-2 against Wolverhampton over? Let’s put it this way, the Blues are now playing differently…
So soon we meet again! A few days after the FA Cup, Brighton and Chelsea face each other again. Will the signs be different this time? After all, the Seagulls were able to redeem themselves a little with the 2-1 win.
After the 0-7 defeat against Nottingham, a reaction is now also needed in the league. The problem: the home side no longer like to play at home and don’t necessarily look that dangerous in front of goal.
The visitors from the capital were once the league’s away goalscoring machine, but now they’re happy if they score at all. So, I’ve decided on the following bet:
The 3-goal mark won’t be broken!
