Champions League, Wednesday, 19/02/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
A French duel in the Champions League playoffs – but the excitement is no longer rising before the second leg! Paris St. Germain got into shape in time for the Champions League, and now goes into the second leg as the big favorite in my PSG Brest betting tip.
After the 3-0 first-leg win, both the bookmakers and I expect that the stars from the capital will have no problems at all in winning the game on Wednesday, so I’ll add the extra “Under 4.5 goals” for you.
A home win with a maximum of four goals, which I also justify with the current offensive weakness of the guests in international competition. Of course, I’ll also tell you what history says about Paris.
But one thing is also clear: PSG no longer has to give 100 percent, so it could let it peter out a little. For this reason, I have not made my choice with regard to a handicap bet that would aim for Paris to run away with it.
Ultimately, it depends on how seriously Dembele and Co. take the game. In my opinion, the concentration is at least enough to win the game – a comfortable win is no longer necessary.
The bookmakers’ prediction
Brest have been one of Paris St. Germain’s favorite opponents, not having lost a game since 1985. It is therefore not surprising that the odds of a home win on Wednesday are only 1.20.
On the other hand, you can surely imagine that a victory for Brest brings in an average of 13.0 – and a pure victory is not enough! If you want to bet on a sensation and let Brest advance, dizzying odds of 100.0 come into focus.
With a draw, Paris would of course easily advance, although I have to note here: both teams have only shared points once in the group stage. With odds of 7.50, a draw is not really expected anyway.
AI prediction PSG vs Brest: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
How do you approach the unequal knockout duel with the AI? I got three very interesting betting suggestions from ChatGPT again, which you are no longer familiar with from the premier class.
One bet that would carry a relatively high risk is “Ousmane Dembele scores at least twice”. The Frenchman is in top form, having scored six times in the last three CL games alone. He scored a hat-trick against Brest in the league at the beginning of February. Conclusion: a tip that could well work!
The “Both teams score” bet is priced at just under 1.90, so the risk is significantly lower here. In their last five CL matches, Brest have scored just one goal, but they have scored in six of their last seven games against Paris. Since PSG already have one foot in the next round, the BTS could be accurate.
The AI also stands by the “Under 4.5 goals” tip. I’ve already mentioned that Brest is relatively harmless in attack in the Champions League. That alone is enough to support the tip – and it also appears in my main bet.
Analysis: PSG vs Brest
Lucky draw – no ifs, ands, or buts! Paris St. Germain were slow to get into their stride in the Champions League XXL group stage, teetering on the brink of elimination after a 1-0 loss to Girona in their opener.
0-2 against Arsenal, 1-1 against Eindhoven, 1-2 against Atletico Madrid and 0-1 at Bayern Munich, there were hardly any points, hardly any goals! It was only with the 3-0 win against RB Salzburg that the team slowly got back into the swing of things.
Victories against Manchester City (4-2) and VfB Stuttgart (4-1) followed, so the results were finally back to normal. In the first leg of the play-offs against Brest, Paris didn’t give their opponents a look-in.
A penalty paved the way for the win, with Ousmane Dembele scoring twice to make the final score 3-0. He has scored six times in the last three games, and has scored 11 goals in the last seven Ligue 1 games.
Odds Analysis
How much will PSG score on Wednesday? It’s not an easy question to answer, but with a quick lead, you could probably sit back and relax. If exactly that happens in the first half, the odds reach 1.53.
This fits with the fact that Brest have trailed at half-time in four of their last five games. Is a clean sheet even conceivable? It would certainly fit with the guests’ results and would mean odds of 2.00 for you.
Of course, an outcome bet also makes it into my hot bets, after some deliberation I decided on a 2-0. PSG won their last two home games by two goals, if it comes to exactly this result and you have risked the tip, you will be pleased with the odds of 7.50 in the Bet365 app.
PSG vs. Brest: A favorite opponent in the playoffs
After six successful games in a row, Dembele was unable to score in Toulouse last time out, as his team won narrowly 1-0. It’s not surprising that he didn’t score, as he was only brought on as a substitute.
Luis Enrique made a host of substitutions, giving a number of stars a break. And he did so despite knowing that they had a considerable lead over Brest. Paris have now gone 31 games unbeaten against Brest.
They have won 23 of those games, an excellent return. The two last met in the league at the beginning of February, when Paris won 5-2. 21 goals from their last seven games against Brest? That’s an impressive average!
In Brest, of course, they know full well that they would have to pull off a real sensation to get past PSG. The Reds had started the CL season so well, even reaching the last eight for a long time.
2-1 against Graz, 4-0 in Salzburg, 1-1 against Leverkusen and 2-1 against Sparta Prague, they were justifiably proud of these results. Nothing was lost after the 3-0 defeat to Barcelona, after all, Brest immediately went out and beat Eindhoven 1-0.
The team ran out of steam towards the end. They squandered their great position after losing 2-0 to Shakhtar Donetsk and had nothing left to offer after the 3-0 defeat to Real Madrid.
The most recent 3-0 loss to PSG means that four of the last five games have been lost, with the only goal scored in the last five coming from Julien Le Cardinal. The results from Ligue 1? I don’t really need to look at them more closely.
Brest have, of course, the same opponents as PSG here, and last played 2-2 against Auxerre. The reds definitely have no reason to be down if they are knocked out on Wednesday, because: for a debut season, the performances shown were definitely worthy of praise!
My PSG Brest tip:
Paris St. Germain have everything under control in the Champions League by now, and are particularly convincing in offense. Admittedly, with Stade Brest, they drew a playoff opponent that is not on equal terms, as a quick look at history also shows.
Brest is one of the favorite opponents, nothing can go wrong here. Now, of course, the Parisians can decide for themselves on Wednesday how and when they want to seal the deal; theoretically, they could even lose by two goals.
However, I assume that there is enough stability in the team by now and that there is also an Ousmane Dembele in top form. Since Brest no longer has much of an offensive presence in Europe, I have decided on the following tip:
Paris wins with a maximum of four goals!
