Europa Conference League, Play-Offs, Thursday, 20/02/2025 at 6:45 pm
This will be another tough task for Heidenheim! In the first leg, Frank Schmidt’s team managed to turn a 0-1 deficit into a 2-1 victory. Now it’s at home.
Due to the weak league performance, I’m not really convinced that Heidenheim will reach the last 16 of the Conference League.
Rather, I expect a second leg on equal terms, the Danes will press! That’s why I’m betting on both teams scoring at strong odds with Merkur Bets in my Heidenheim FC Copenhagen betting tip.
This season, Heidenheim will probably be fighting for survival at best. After a strong debut year in the top flight, in which they even managed to qualify for the Conference League, the team is struggling mightily in what is known to be a particularly difficult second year.
They are currently only 16th, seven points from safety and just one point ahead of the even cheaper seats in Bochum and Kiel. The 2-0 defeat to Mainz last weekend was their fifth defeat in a row.
The betting providers’ prediction
Would the season have gone better without the double burden? Possibly. But it is also a fact that Heidenheim had to rebuild almost its entire offense due to the players who left this season.
After the away win a week ago, Heidenheim are slight favorites in the second leg, with a win rate of 2.20, while Copenhagen are at 2.94 with our betting providers. The draw is around 3.40.
ChatGPT prediction Heidenheim v FC Copenhagen: That’s what ChatGPT suggests
The AI has suggested three odds for the match. It sees little risk in the “double chance X2” selection. That’s my favorite bet in addition to both teams scoring.
Heidenheim needs only a draw to advance, the form is critical and Copenhagen is likely to exert a lot of pressure as the visiting team, did not play a bad game last week. Therefore, I can definitely recommend the odds offered by ChatGPT.
For the medium risk level, the artificial intelligence has selected over 2.5 goals, which is also a good choice and again offers slightly higher odds. Ultimately, however, I can also very well imagine a 1-1 draw, so I prefer to hedge.
ChatGPT reaches for the high odds shelf with the third option: “Copenhagen win and both teams score”. Given the whopping odds and the numerous Heidenheim defeats, the bet is not too bad.
Analysis: Heidenheim vs. FC Copenhagen
Heidenheim’s record is disastrous. In the first half of the season, the promoted team only managed a single win, a 2-0 victory over Union Berlin, and their last three points came in the away game against Mainz. That was 17 matchdays ago.
So Sunday’s reunion culminated in a 0-2 defeat. The downward slide continued after a 0-2 defeat against St. Pauli, 1-2 defeats against Augsburg and Dortmund and a 0-1 defeat against Freiburg.
I definitely didn’t see an away win in Copenhagen coming. Especially not when Heidenheim was once again behind. However, the second half was impressive. Overall, however, it was once again shaky in defense.
They only kept a clean sheet against the Iron in the last 17 competitive games, so I don’t expect a clean sheet against Copenhagen. The single goal bet for the guests is already at 1.31, a good choice for an international combination ticket on Thursday!
Odds analysis
Copenhagen are top of the Danish Superliga with the same number of points as Midtjylland, having lost just two of 18 games. The league only restarted last weekend.
The Lions won 2-1 at Randers. Before that, there were only test matches, three of which they won. The 3-0 defeat to Rapid Vienna in the Conference League was the only competitive game in the last 18 in which Copenhagen failed to score.
Like Heidenheim, Copenhagen thus missed the opportunity on the sixth matchday to qualify directly for the last 16.
Given their accuracy and the good opportunities in the first leg, I’m tempted by the over 1.5 Copenhagen goals at 2.45 in the Bet365 app. Besides, Copenhagen need at least two goals to reach the next round without a penalty shootout.
Heidenheim vs. FC Copenhagen Odds: Heidenheim concede many goals
This fits, Heidenheim has the second-weakest defense in the Bundesliga, having conceded 45 goals, topped only by Kiel with a whopping 57 balls that had to be fished out of the net.
Heidenheim slumped in the Conference League after three wins, picking up just one point from their last three matches in the league phase. 0-2 against Chelsea, 1-3 against Basaksehir and a 1-1 draw against St. Gallen at the end.
During this time, they also conceded two goals on average.
Heidenheim with full chapel in the second leg
At least Schmidt can draw from a full pool in the second leg. All players nominated for the Conference League are there.
Copenhagen has to make more compromises. In particular, Roony Bardghji’s long-term injury is painful.
In the center, the team has to manage without Andreas Cornelius, Lukas Lerager and Nicolai Boilesen.
The statistics are uncomfortable for the German club: Copenhagen has had the eighth-most chances per game on average in the current competition, and Heidenheim is also among the top 10 in terms of the most opportunities allowed.
Incidentally, we have not yet had a match between the two clubs before the first leg. Since this is the first time the hosts have played internationally, it would only have been possible in a friendly anyway.
On the goal scorer market, the 4.33 for Jordan Larsson particularly appeals to me. The Copenhagen winger had already scored in the first leg and also in the league against Randers.
But if you are looking for a very high odds with value here, you could also bet on the former Borussia player Thomas Delaney (9.00).
He may play between the number six and eight positions, but he also scored a goal on Monday and also had a shot on target against Heidenheim. In his Bundesliga era, he has scored eleven goals.
My Heidenheim FC Copenhagen betting tip:
After the many league defeats and the shaky defense in the first leg, I wouldn’t be surprised if Heidenheim still fails in the playoffs despite the lead from the away game.
I see advantages for FC Copenhagen, the Danish league leaders, who should now be in better form after two competitive games.
As in the first game, I expect dangerous scoring chances on both sides. I trust the guests more in front, but they also have to take risks because of the deficit. That’s why I’m placing the following bet, which in my opinion makes registering with Merkur Bets worthwhile!
My Heidenheim FC Copenhagen prediction: Both teams to score!
