Premier League, Saturday, 22.02.2025 at 6:30 PM
Two wins in the last nine games and still a more than realistic chance of making it to the premier league? We don’t experience that every day either! In my Aston Villa Chelsea tip, the current situation of the Blues really surprises me.
They are out of form, but not that far down the table. Their opponents are collecting domestic draws. I will explain exactly what that means in my analysis and also underline why the “Double Chance 1X” bet could be worthwhile here if there are over 1.5 goals.
Two wins from their last nine games for Chelsea, two wins from their last nine games for Aston Villa – I’m starting my betting tip with a fact on both sides that doesn’t trigger any celebrations.
At Chelsea, I still don’t really understand the current situation, because it actually seemed as if the Blues would finally be able to play a consistent season in 2024/25. In mid-November, they were doing really well and were even knocking on the door of the top four.
Two points from the last five games, plus two goals, Chelsea are now a welcome guest. With Everton, Crystal Palace and Ipswich, there weren’t exactly many superior opponents on the other side.
Since mid-September, Chelsea have only played out two clean sheets. At least once against Aston Villa, the upcoming opponent. For the first time this season, Chelsea have conceded a goal before half-time in four matches.
The Blues have only had two away games in which they didn’t concede a goal in the first half. But now there is a threat of something else, namely a triple pack of goals conceded away from home.
That has already happened against ManCity and Brighton. If we go by color scheme, Aston Villa also has a blue share in their jersey. If there are actually more than two goals conceded again, you can get odds of 4.33 for this bet in the Bet365 app!
With three defeats from their last 18 duels, looking at the history is of course not unpleasant if you are on the Chelsea side, especially when we consider that Villa Park has only been lost once in almost 11 years.
Perhaps that is why our bookmakers see the Blues as slightly ahead on Saturday. The odds range from an average 2.55 to 2.70, even though the hosts are actually strong at home.
Aston Villa generally have an average season, at least in the Premier League! In the premier league, the debutant has fought its way to the top without any playoffs, beating Bayern and RB Leipzig, among others.
In the league on the island, somehow there is no real sense of a new beginning. But: they recently managed to get a point against Liverpool, playing 2:2. Where? At home, of course!
In their own stadium, they only lost the first home game of the season (0:2 against Arsenal), otherwise they always get points. But please don’t think that the Villans are on a winning streak.
They have already shared points seven times at home, 0:0, 1:1 or 2:2, everything has been there. While a 2-2 draw against Liverpool is of course a welcome result, a 1-1 draw against Ipswich is not so pleasing.
Incidentally, Aston Villa have kept clean sheets just four times in the entire season, so they are certainly not among the best defensive lines. In seven of their last home games, they have conceded a goal after half-time.
That’s why you can place a bet on “Chelsea scoring in the second half” at Interwetten, with odds still as high as 1.60. Aston Villa have not been behind after the first half for three months.
In conclusion of my analysis, I can ultimately say that neither on the left nor on the right is there a superior team. Aston Villa share points an incredible number of times, regardless of whether the opponent is fighting relegation or is at the top of the table.
On the other hand, it is of course great that the Villans cannot lose at home. Since Chelsea are currently anything but confident away from home, history does not play a particularly important role for me and I am going with the “Double Chance 1X”.
Both teams don’t have a great track record of playing to a clean sheet. As a result, I can imagine one or other of them scoring on Saturday, and I’m going with the following tip:
Aston Villa scores over 1.5 goals!
