Premier League matchday 26, Saturday, 22.02.2025 at 16:00
Gabriel Jesus? Cruciate ligament rupture, out until September. Bukayo Saka? Thigh injury, won’t be ready to play again for around two months.
Kai Havertz? Freshly injured, out for the season. Gabriel Martinelli? Injured, probably not an option for the weekend.
Before I start with my Arsenal West Ham betting tip, I have to remind Gunners fans who their team is currently missing. Will Liverpool therefore lead a lonely race at the top?
The Londoners are seven points behind, so they would do well to look at their own performances first. In any case, I’m taking the risk of an under bet for the next Premier League game and saying: We’ll stay under 2.5 goals behind here, also due to the many absences.
Of course, West Ham’s stats will have to play a part here to clearly back up this bet. The journey from the East End is short, but the current performance is unfortunately not particularly convincing.
Consequently, it is a match in which the bookmakers clearly see the hosts ahead. Are they right? I’ll try to find out in my analysis, and such an efficient 1:0 would confirm both the role of the favorites and my betting tip!
The bookmakers’ forecast?
Arsenal FC are still unbeaten at home, which nobody else in the Premier League has managed! As West Ham are at home in the lower midfield, I’m not surprised how low the bookies have set their odds for the Gunners to win (an average of 1.28).
The visitors, who also come from the English capital, are looking at completely different values, with double-digit odds across the board – on average, you’re looking at 11.0.
A draw would be far too little for Arsenal. However, as there have already been four draws at home (and at West Ham away), the points split at odds of 5.70 should perhaps not completely disappear from your field of vision.
Analysis: Arsenal vs West Ham
Seven points behind first place, six ahead of third – someone seems to be making themselves comfortable in second place! At the moment, Arsenal FC seem to be lacking the decisive energy to attack Liverpool once again.
The Gunners have just managed to win three in a row for the third time this season – but they have never won four in a row. That’s precisely the reason why they haven’t managed to finish at the top of the table
Several short streaks come to an early end, and the eight draws in particular often didn’t have to be. Of course, the Londoners are the only team in the league that has yet to lose at home.
It is not easy to predict how many goals Arsenal FC will score at home. For weeks, hardly any goals can be scored, but recently (2:2 against Aston Villa and 5:1 against Manchester City) things have been quite different.
Odds Analysis
I would not opt for a classic 1×2 bet this time, but instead go for a win with +2-HC for the visitors. Arsenal are missing a number of stars and the visitors have often lost narrowly recently.
At the same time, you can of course also say at this point: Arsenal will win, but by exactly one goal! In the Bet365 app, this bet would give you odds of 3.75.
Arsenal only conceded two goals in their own stadium before the break. In view of the injuries, I could therefore imagine that the first 45 minutes will not produce any goals. This bet is rewarded with odds of 3.20.
A result bet doesn’t always work, but it gives you an even better chance of winning. In this case, I would bet on a 1:0, as Arsenal already have eight wins to zero. The odds: 7.50.
Will Arsenal set the course in the first half?
The Gunners only conceded two goals in the first half, compared to eight after the break. Nine leads, three draws? No, I really can’t accuse Arsenal of having a weak start.
Six times it was 1-0 at the break, so that’s the favored result. Of course, it hurts the club from the capital a lot what is happening in terms of personnel. There might be very little hope for Gabriel Martinelli, but not for the other injured players.
No Saka, no Havertz, no Gabriel Jesus – you have to compensate for that first! In the first half of the season, Arsenal were in a scoring mood against West Ham, winning 5-2.
How much do West Ham have to offer?
Only one penalty was scored WITHOUT the involvement of Havertz and Saka, which quickly shows how important the duo are. Can West Ham somehow take revenge for this clear defeat? Very few can really imagine that.
The visitors have finished five of their last seven games without a point, and with just seven wins to their name, the Londoners are teetering near the relegation places. They are fortunate to still have an eight-point cushion – but that could be used up in no time!
In the past 12 games, just three goals have been scored in the first half, but with a total of twelve goals, the offense has not stood out positively anyway. West Ham are a team that is incredibly difficult for me to get to grips with
Sometimes they lose big, then they scatter a few white vests. West Ham have never lost three times in a row – most recently they lost 2-1 to Chelsea and 1-0 to Brentford.
So is this the first time they have failed to score three times in a row? It will also be interesting to see how the Hammers have fared against the top teams in the league:
1:2 and 0:3 against Chelsea, 1:3 and 1:4 against Manchester City, 0:5 against Liverpool, 2:5 in the first half of the season against Arsenal, 0:3 against Nottingham? The results against the top 6 teams in the league have been anything but encouraging!
Admittedly, West Ham are also plagued by bad luck with injuries. Niclas Füllkrug is injured, Michail Antonio is not on board and now Vladimir Coufal is likely to be sidelined
My Arsenal West Ham tip:
Will it be a game that can be categorized as David versus Goliath? Arsenal are clear favorites against West Ham, and as an unbeaten home team, I can’t see them losing either.
The Hammers are not in form, especially defensively they have big problems. It’s very important to mention that a number of the Gunners’ offensive stars won’t be able to play, especially Kai Havertz.
I was able to see that the defense at the Emirates defended well, especially in the first half. I’ve therefore decided to take a certain risk and make a prediction:
We’ll see less than 2.5 goals!
