Süper Lig 24th matchday, Monday, 24/02/2025 at 6:00 PM
It’s the last chance for Fenerbahce. The last chance to put the squeeze on their archrivals, the last chance to keep their eyes on the league title, the last chance to give their fans hope. So here goes my Galatasaray Fenerbahce betting tip!
In Turkey, a hot fight for the championship already broke out in 2023/24, and now this duo is once again far ahead of its competitors. The canaries are under a lot of pressure this Monday, after all, they are starting the game six points behind.
One thing seems clear: one defeat and the game is over. Quite a few people expect a spectacle here, with one goal after another, but I’ll tell you now why I’m expecting the opposite and a maximum of three goals.
Of course, I now have to underline this assumption for you in the best possible way. To do that, I not only look at the current facts, but also at the history, because that is often particularly interesting in such a derby, and definitely so in this case.
Analyzing such a explosive derby naturally involves a few pitfalls, because as you all know, the laws here are very unique! So will the championship be decided here?
The betting tipsters’ prediction?
With ten wins and two draws this season, Galatasaray are a force to be reckoned with at home. Nevertheless, the bookmakers are well aware of the fact that home games against Fenerbahce have not been their favorite pastime for years. Consequently, the odds for a home win average 2.20.
Fenerbahce don’t come off that much worse, even though the majority of their fans will not be on the side of the guests. If you risk an away win, you can get odds of 2.90.
Draws are not uncommon in this derby, but of course today that would only help the Lions. In the event that there is a point for both teams after 90 minutes + X, you can get odds of around 3.60.
Analysis: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce
It’s a great chance for Galatasaray! A great chance to possibly distance themselves from their competitors (and very early on), to make defending the title more and more likely.
Last season, the Lions played the best round in their history, and it was actually clear to everyone that they couldn’t do it again in 2024/25. But lo and behold: after 23 matchdays, everything looks perfect!
20 wins and three draws, Gala won’t be able to pull off such a perfect season again! 59 goals scored and 23 conceded? I can tell you right away: Fenerbahce has a ratio of 60:23, which is almost identical.
With Epüyspor, Hatayspor and Kasaimpasa, three teams took points off the Turkish record champions, who are not actually among the opponents on an equal footing. However, I would like to mention that promoted Eyüpspor is currently in a sensational fourth place – 23 points behind!
Odds Analysis
I shirk the responsibility of having to choose a winner here and say: there might not even be one! Although there has only been one draw in the last eight derbies, there have been six in seven games before that. One point for Gala, one for Fener, that would be my 1×2 preference.
Six of the last nine derbies played at RAMS Park have had a maximum of two goals. Since the end of 2017, there have even been five 0-0 draws. Therefore, the bet “Under 2.5 goals” could be worthwhile, the odds of 2.62 certainly read very effectively.
Both teams were in European competition during the week, which is likely to have taken a toll on their energy levels. That’s another reason why I can imagine that we might see a lot of fighting but little goal-scoring. The possible result: a 0-0 draw! If that’s the case and you’ve placed the result bet, a great 21.0 will pop up in the Bet365 app.
Can’t Gala lose?
This shows how far ahead Gala and Fener are once again. When the Lions play at home, nothing can really go wrong. They have won ten times, drawn twice and scored 31 goals.
I don’t want to criticize unnecessarily, but seven of the ten victories were very close! The drama that is often typical of the Süper Lig is not missing out on the title defender either.
Apart from the first home game of this season, they always scored in the first half. If they manage to do that again tonight, top provider Interwetten offers odds of 1.63.
Beware of this derby!
In the last nine games, I think it’s worth mentioning, Galatasaray scored SEVEN TIMES from the penalty spot. It’s a good thing they have accurate shooters and that many people don’t even notice that Mauro Icardi, last season’s hero, has been out for a while with a cruciate ligament rupture.
Victor Osimhen is much more than just a substitute: the striker has already scored 14 goals in 18 games. He didn’t score in the 3-1 win against Fenerbahce in the first leg, but he did set up a goal.
The head-to-head against Fenerbahce is a bit of a story in itself. Gala has only lost three of the last 15 games, which is certainly a pleasing fact. There have been five wins in this period, so it was not a show of strength either.
0:1, 3:0, 1:2, 0:0, 0:0, 2:2, 0:0, 0:1, 0:0 – the most recent domestic derbies could definitely have gone either way. Fenerbahce will draw courage from the fact that there could be something in it today.
The canaries can’t win, they have to! Of course, with 18 wins, three draws and two defeats, they are playing well, but unfortunately there is this seemingly overpowering competitor.
The team is currently on a streak of seven wins in a row, more than ever before. And unlike Galatasaray, Fener has also managed to qualify for the last 16 of the Europa League!
So, the form couldn’t be better right before the derby. The aforementioned seven wins have yielded 20 goals, and the team scores even more often away from home.
And yet I have to say: Fenerbahce also prefer to play in their own stadium, which is of course rather inconvenient before the short trip. It’s good that they’ve now managed three consecutive away wins, which will give them a boost.
The canaries have never been behind at half-time, with four of the last five games seeing a draw on the scoreboard after the first 45 minutes. Incidentally, if we were to have a draw after half one, the odds at Bet365 would be 2.50.
Fenerbahce have an exceptional striker in Youssef En-Nesyri, flanked by Edin Dzeko, who has scored just as many goals. Twelve goals in his last nine games? En-Nesyri is in extremely good form!
He has scored a brace five times in that period alone. Admittedly, a risky bet, but if he does it again tonight, the odds at Bet365 are 8.50!
My tip
There can only be one champion, only one team that wears the pants in Istanbul, only one fan group that will be satisfied tonight! When Galatasaray and Fenerbahce meet, anything can happen.
RAMS Park will be on fire, and neither team will be too happy about having to leave points in Europe during the week. Gala has the advantage, is six points ahead, and is completely undefeated. But I have noticed that Fenerbahce has not been an easy opponent for years.
The visitors are under a lot of pressure and really need to win. In previous years, many derbies were not particularly spectacular, contrary to expectations. Since a lot is at stake and the Europa League was mentioned, I’ll venture the following tip:
There will be a maximum of three goals!
