Europa League, group stage, Thursday, 09.12.2022
Benfica Lisbon and Olympique Marseille, two teams who originally started the European Cup season in the top flight, will meet in the quarter-finals of the Europa League. However, they were not able to stay there for too long, but the chance of winning the title in the second-highest international club competition is still alive.
For betting providers such as Intertops, Benfica is the favorite in the home game against Marseille with odds of around 1.9, but I would advise caution, as the Portuguese have struggled in home games so far this season.
Since both teams have their advantages in offense, I choose a goal bet with “over 2.5 goals” with a Bwin voucher at odds of around 1.7.
In contrast to Olympique Marseille, who were beaten by Panathinaikos Athens on penalties in the Champions League qualifiers, Benfica were the Portuguese champions in the group stage.
However, things did not go according to plan for Roger Schmidt’s team right from the start. They lost their first home game against Schmidt’s former club Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 and also suffered defeats in their subsequent games against Inter Milan (1-0) and Real Sociedad (1-0, 1-3).
This made it look like a quick farewell, but after a 3:3 draw against Inter, Benfica managed a 3:1 away win in Salzburg in the last game and, thanks to winning the direct duel, still finished third and thus made it into the Europa League.
The 10-time European Cup finalists did not have it easy there either, but qualified for the round of the best eight with victories over Toulouse (2:1, 0:0) and Glasgow Rangers (2:2, 1:0).
The Portuguese also had problems against the Scots, especially at home, falling behind twice but still managing to draw 2-2. They then secured promotion with a 1-0 away win.
However, their upcoming opponents Olympique Marseille also had some close results to offer. After being knocked out in the CL qualifiers against Panathinaikos, the French league runners-up from the previous season produced some spectacular matches in the Europa League against Ajax Amsterdam (3:3, 4:3), AEK Athens (3:1, 2:0) and Brighton (2:2, 0:1).
However, the only defeat in the group stage in the final match in the south of England cost them the group win. As a result, the French side had to progress to the intermediate round, where they beat Shakhtar Donetsk
After a 2:2 draw in the first match at Hamburg’s Volksparkstadion, Marseille won the second leg 3:1 at home in the first match under their new coach Jean-Louis Gasset and advanced.
Olympique had already parted company with coach Gennaro Gattuso after the club only finished 9th in the domestic championship. Under Gasset, the club initially went on a run of five consecutive competitive wins
This included an emphatic 4:0 home win over Villarreal in the last 16 of the Europa League. But despite this big lead, promotion was still in jeopardy, as Marseille were already 3-0 down in the second leg before scoring a goal in stoppage time.
But since that game, the thread has broken and Marseille have now suffered three consecutive defeats in Ligue 1. Will they now suffer their fifth defeat in a row in Lisbon? The trend is not in the French side’s favor.
On the other hand, Benfica are also currently struggling at home in their own stadium. Last weekend, both Marseille and Benfica lost away from home.
Marseille lost 3-1 at Lille and Benfica were beaten 2-1 by city rivals Sporting at their stadium. This defeat could also have cost them their successful title defense
The gap to Sporting is now four points, and Benfica have played one game more. As the performance gap in the Portuguese league is always quite high, I don’t rate the chances of a successful title defense very highly. But at least the team’s participation in the European Cup is not in danger.
In contrast to the situation at Marseille. In eighth place, Olympique would currently not be in the international competition next season, but there is still a chance to turn things around
In any case, both Benfica and Marseille are currently searching for their form. The winner of this clash would probably go into their domestic league fixtures with more confidence.
The two teams have met twice so far – four games in total. In 1990, Benfica prevailed in the semi-finals of the European Champions Cup on the away goals rule (1:2 and 1:0) and reached the final.
20 years later, the two clubs drew 1-1 in the round of 16 of the Europa League in Lisbon, but Benfica won the second leg 2-1 away from home
A lot of time has passed since that last competitive match in 2010, but I expect another close result.
Both clubs have already delivered one or two high-scoring games this season. That could also be the case this time.
Home advantage might not play too big a role. That’s why I don’t want to pick a winner.
My Benfica Lisbon Marseille betting tip is therefore: Over 2.5 goals in the match
