FA Cup, Round of 16, Saturday, 01/05/2025 at 1:15 pm
It’s time for the round of 16 in the FA Cup! Among the teams still in the running is second division side Millwall, who are hoping to pull off an upset on Saturday.
After their success against Leeds, they now face their first match against a Premier League club in the English Cup.
But after the resounding 4-1 victory against Aston Villa and the strong form they have shown, I expect my Crystal Palace Millwall tip to avoid an upset on Saturday.
That’s why I’m betting on Crystal Palace to win at Bet-at-home – and it shouldn’t just be a goal for the home side…
I already had the pleasure of writing you a preview for the last Crystal Palace game. With goals from both teams, I was spot on with my betting tip, and it even ended 4-1 in favor of the Eagles.
Now I’m going for my second win, this time in the FA Cup. In the match against Millwall, it doesn’t surprise me that the hosts are ahead at the bookies, although I even consider odds of 1.35 to be quite generous. That’s because I expect to see a visible difference in class.
The 1.35 is therefore wonderful material for a combination ticket on a Saturday full of sports and football in particular. Those who bet on Millwall can increase their stake tenfold if they win, while sports betting fans get 4.60 for a draw.
Nice, high odds, but I don’t see any value in them at all. Crystal Palace have been in really good form with Oliver Glasner since the winter, with only two defeats in their last 16 league matches.
Against the top team Aston Villa, I therefore took a conservative approach to the betting selection. This time, however, I am going for Crystal Palace to win at home by at least two goals.
The four goals against the Villans were well-deserved, with a whopping 4.31 expected goals. It’s not uncommon for the Eagles to score multiple times anyway. They have scored at least twice in eight of their last nine wins.
Therefore, the significant jump in odds with Over 1.5 home goals compared to the simple win odds is definitely worth it in my opinion. In addition, the game is being played at home again and all players are available in offense.
Only in defense do a few cutbacks have to be made. And Millwall? The total market value is not even ten percent of that of the hosts, but Alex Neil has plenty to choose from.
The Millwall head coach only took over at the turn of the year and, after a slow start, it can now be said that the move has paid off. After all, the club has only lost one of its last eight Championship matches and has thus stabilized in the middle of the table.
The Lions have kept a maximum of one clean sheet in seven of these matches. However, I am not overrating this impressive statistic before a game against a currently strong Premier League club.
The difference between the Premier League and the Championship is immense. Especially since Crystal Palace have the sixth-highest number of shots on target in the top flight.
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There you also have the opportunity to bet on goal scorers. A strong 2.50 odds await Jean-Philippe Mateta! The former Mainz player has scored eight goals in his last eight games.
Let’s take a look at the head-to-head. The last time the teams played in the same division was in 2012/2013. Back then, we saw no winners in the Championship, the games ended 2:2 and 0:0.
After that, there was a friendly match (1-0 to Crystal Palace, 2020) in the 2022 FA Cup, which was the last time the two teams met. The Eagles had to play away, but still managed to get the better of their opponents 2-1.
Millwall’s last win was on New Year’s Day 2011. Before that, we saw two consecutive away wins for the club, which is struggling on the road this year, winning just four of 17 Championship games.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, is not considered to be particularly strong at home either, bagging only its third home win against Aston Villa.
Conclusion: Crystal Palace is in really good form and, given that it is playing at home, can rely on the same team that played in the FA Cup without the hassle of traveling. I can recommend a goal scorer bet from Mateta at a whopping 2.50, but I would have to wait for the line-up first.
Either way, the Premier League team, with a squad that is worth about ten times as much and is currently performing very successfully, should manage a clear win against Millwall.
The basis is a strong offense, which is fundamental in games against smaller teams that like to sit deep at the back!
My Crystal Palace Millwall betting tip: Victory Crystal Palace & over 1.5 goals
