Bundesliga 24th matchday, Saturday, 01/03/2025 at 3:30 pm
The “Nullfünfer” have already proven several times this season that they can surprise even against supposedly stronger opponents – especially when the latter are not fully focused.
Mainz has now learned how to use a compact defense to launch pinpricks and cause even heavy favorites to falter.
So RB Leipzig have to be very careful on matchday 24 of the Bundesliga if the Bulls don’t want to leave points behind again. The Saxons are clearly superior individually, but especially in the Bundesliga, we have seen time and again that underdogs can be dangerous.
Will the home side remain in command or will the Hessian visitors pull off the next surprise? My RB Leipzig Mainz prediction will give you the answer in advance!
And you know what? The chances of the daredevil zero-fivers avoiding defeat against RBL this time are certainly not just in the per mille range.
M05 have only lost one of their last five Bundesliga duels against RB Leipzig (2 wins, 2 draws) – although that was the game in the first half of the current season. Can Mainz hit back this time?
I think so, because the carnival club is currently playing really good football. I even trust my RB Leipzig Mainz prediction so much that more than just a free bet without a deposit will be used.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The numerous betting providers with PayPal as a payment option make it easy for themselves and express with identical RB Leipzig Mainz 05 odds for a draw and away win that they have a lot of confidence in the Hessians!
RBL remains the favorite with an average win rate of 1.90, but we are far from clear dominance here. So if you bet on Mainz annoying the bulls, you can look forward to a juicy odds of around 3.75.
AI prediction RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
The RB Leipzig Mainz 05 AI prediction provided to me by request from what is probably the most popular AI assistant in the world doesn’t really convince me.
For the high risk, “Leipzig wins both halves” is suggested. But that won’t happen – in my opinion, ChatGPT is barking up the wrong tree here. Because Mainz will be able to keep the shop completely shut at the back for at least half the game!
For the medium risk tip, on the other hand, the “double chance 1X at under 3.5 goals” is suggested. My soccer expertise tells me “Yes, possible!”, even though I think a draw is much more likely than a home win for Leipzig.
For the low risk, “Both teams score” is recommended. Not a good tip, since a 2-1 or 1-1 are the only realistic results that could fulfill this condition in my opinion.
Analysis: RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05
Give the zero-five team a half chance and they’ll score! After all, Mainz 05 has converted 51% of its big chances this Bundesliga season – the highest in the league. The shot accuracy of 55% is also the second-best in the league.
It is precisely this trend that makes me fear that a home win bet on RB Leipzig could quickly come to nothing.
Because the Hessians will continue to be chronically underestimated after their victories over Heidenheim and St. Pauli, even though they are gaining more and more self-confidence.
Leipzig, on the other hand, is treading water a bit. Even though the Bulls have only lost one Bundesliga game in the new year, five draws in the last six match days are clearly too many.
Especially since the schedule was not particularly difficult: Union (0:0), St. Pauli (2:0), Augsburg (0:0) and Heidenheim (2:2) have much more modest goals for the season than RBL.
Odds Analysis
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“0:0 at half-time” at odds of 2.95 is an attractive offer. In recent games, Mainz has shown that it can defend well even in difficult situations, so it seems quite realistic that the score can be kept 0:0 until half-time.
In addition, “Under 3.5 goals” at odds of 1.40 is also a solid bet. Given that none of the last five direct duels has exceeded this mark, there is much to suggest that there will be few goals this time as well.
RBL vs. M05: Changeover could see Mainz defend more defensively than usual!
Without their preferred defensive midfielder, Mainz could play even deeper than usual on Saturday.
Because in his 300th Bundesliga appearance, Dominik Kohr saw his tenth yellow card of the season and is therefore suspended in Leipzig – just as he was in the first leg.
This is already the sixth Bundesliga season in which Kohr has been booked at least ten times – putting him on a par with Bernd Hollerbach as the record holder.
Incidentally, Leipzig’s Christoph Baumgartner is also missing this weekend due to a yellow card suspension (5 cautions).
Leipzig: The 0-0 could last a very long time…
There are many indications that suggest that we will see a low-scoring game in the Red Bull Arena on Saturday.
After all, FSV Mainz 05, with only 24 goals conceded, has the second-best defense in the Bundesliga – only FC Bayern (19) is even more stable. After 23 match days, this even means a new club record.
What’s more, Mainz have not conceded a single goal in the last three Bundesliga matchdays and could now equal the club record from the 2011/12 season (four games without conceding a goal in a row).
Only Bayern (12) and opponents RB Leipzig (11) have kept more clean sheets than the 05ers (9) this season. Do you also recognize an interesting pattern?
Furthermore, the zero-fivers are experts at stopping even ball-safe teams like RB Leipzig – as the following statistic proves:
On average, Mainz 05 only allows its opponents 11.3 passes outside of their own defensive third before the club actively presses.
Only FC Bayern (9.7) and Borussia Dortmund (11.2) have a lower PPDA value in this Bundesliga season. RB Leipzig, with 12.1, is in fifth place in this category.
In short, both clubs don’t waste any time getting in the way of their opponents’ build-up play!
My tip
The upcoming game between RBL and Mainz promises to be exciting. It is highly likely that Leipzig’s offense will have a hard time getting past the compact defense of the Hessians.
Mainz has been scoring defensively well lately and could even emerge from this game without conceding a goal. The Rose team must therefore be on its guard to avoid having to settle for another unsatisfactory draw…
My RB Leipzig Mainz 05 tip: RBL scores less than 1.5 goals.
