Conference League Round of 16, second leg, Thursday, 03/13/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Only 2:2 in the first leg, I expected a lot more from the Andalusians in the first leg. So it will be an uncomfortable affair in Portugal on Thursday. Nevertheless, I think that the greater class will make the difference here.
Last week, Real Betis were already the clearly better team, but they were just too wasteful with their chances.
Accordingly, I am placing a bet with AdmiralBet that the guests will reach the next round, in line with my Guimaraes Betis Sevilla tips.
I wouldn’t overstate the fact that it was only a 2-2 draw in the first match. Yes, it’s harder to get a quarter-final ticket away from home, but I still see two teams here at very different levels – and Betis are currently in good form.
We are talking about five competitive wins in the last seven games. The only defeat was against Ghent in the second leg of the Conference League playoff. But Real Betis could easily afford that after the 3-0 from the first leg.
In the league, there was even a home win against the star ensemble of Real Madrid (2-1). The 2-2 draw against Guimaraes was followed by an unchallenged 1-0 win against Las Palmas at the weekend. I definitely see Betis as having the advantage on Thursday, and more so than our top betting providers.
Therefore, the 1.68 for the progression has value in my opinion. In the 1X2 market for the regular season, there is even a 2.35 for the away win, Guimaraes was assigned a 3.05, and the draw has almost the same odds.
The sixth-placed team in the Portuguese league has had a strong European Cup campaign so far. Vitoria SC, as runners-up behind Chelsea, have advanced directly to the round of 16, winning four of their six games and remaining completely unbeaten.
Speaking of unbeaten: the team has not left the pitch as a loser in a total of seven games. Estoril stopped Vitoria from their last league defeat at the end of January, and apart from a 2-1 loss to Elvas in the cup, it was actually the only defeat in 2025.
Ultimately, however, I don’t want to pay too much attention to this statistic. The difference between the Spanish and Portuguese leagues is enormous. Nevertheless, there were also duels against Sporting, Porto and Braga, from which a point arose in each case.
At home, there was only one defeat in the entire season, against Porto, almost half a year ago. Impressive – but in the end, despite the good first leg, the men in green and white are still a bit too big for me.
If Betis had problems scoring goals, which could quickly become fatal on such an uncomfortable evening away from home, I would be more skeptical about my bet. But Sevilla have scored 17 goals in the last nine games alone, almost two on average.
Therefore, the away win rate with over 1.5 Betis goals is an alternative. For this, we get strong and tax-free 2.95 odds at Bet365, where you can also get a strong new customer bonus.
I can well imagine that Betis will need two goals to advance anyway. After all, Vitoria had an average of around 20 chances per game in the league phase, making them the team with the most chances.
Betis are not far behind in this ranking and at the same time, they have allowed the fewest shots of any team. Keeping a clean sheet against the home side will still be a tough task though. Both teams scoring at 1.70 is also a hot tip.
Incidentally, the teams have met internationally before this season – in the 2013/14 Europa League. At the time, they played each other in the group stage. Guimaraes obviously didn’t score in the two 1-0 defeats.
But the team has developed well, putting together a stronger squad overall than they did twelve years ago. If you are looking for a suitable free bet for the match, you should sign up at NEO.bet.
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And the turnover conditions are very fair with a minimum odds of 1.50. As already mentioned above, there are some odds above this mark that are suitable for this match anyway.
Conclusion: Guimaraes has only lost one home game in the competition – and that was almost half a year ago. Vitoria is still unbeaten in the Conference League. So this will not be an easy task for Real Betis.
However, Sevilla have a well-oiled offense that was a lot more dangerous than that of the Portuguese last week.
I expect this visible class difference to continue in the rematch. And Betis concede the fewest scoring chances on average. In the end, I expect a 1:0, 2:1, 3:1 for Sevilla – but maybe only after 120 minutes!
My Guimaraes Betis Sevilla tip: Betis advances
