Conference League round of 16, second leg, Thursday, 13.03.2025 at 6:45 PM
A goal is not a goal! In our UEFA Conference League tips, I am now focusing on the second legs in the round of 16.
My Lugano Celje tip is particularly interesting because the Swiss have to catch up from 0-1 down.
The home team are favored to win the game and are also ahead in my favor.
So I’ll tell you why I’m making it relatively easy for myself in my prediction: we’re seeing a home win!
Without play-offs, FC Lugano had made it to the knockout round of the Conference League and were drawn against NK Celje, a not-too-difficult opponent. The Swiss team was therefore slightly favored away from home, but they didn’t get a good starting position for the second leg.
Lugano dominated the game but still lost 0-1. Anything is possible in the second leg, especially since the team now has home advantage on their side.
The defeat was also surprising because Lugano had hardly any problems during the group stage. 3-0 against Helsinki, 1-0 against Mlada Boleslav, 2-0 against Ghent and 2-1 against Legia Warsaw – they won four times.
They also had a 2-2 draw against Pafos and a 1-4 slip-up against Topola. So at home, there have been two wins, and in the draw against Pafos, the equalizer was scored in the last minute in the most unfortunate way.
At FC Lugano, goals have been scored before half-time in every CL game. Three times 1-0, twice 0-1, once 2-1 and once 1-1. Overall, we get a total of ten goals in the first half.
There were nine in the second half, so the goals are evenly distributed. So it doesn’t surprise me that you have to be satisfied with odds of 1.35 at Betano when you bet on goals in the first half.
Does it matter that the form in the domestic league is not the best? Lugano have lost three times in a row here, and their most recent home game was anything but successful, a 3-0 defeat to FC Zurich.
In any case, Antonios Papadopoulos will not be able to play against Celje in the second leg on Thursday, as he received a red card in injury time. It’s unfortunate, because the center back has not only played seven games in the competition, but has also scored already.
Basically, the bookmakers with Apple Pay function are optimistic that Lugano will win at home against Celje. Accordingly, you can look forward to average odds of 1.70 to 4.40.
But: If we look at the odds that deal with pure progression regardless of the duration of the game, we end up with 2.00 to 1.75 from the Swiss point of view. Quite curious, because even a 1-0 or 2-1 would automatically lead to overtime.
Celje can of course play a waiting game to begin with and try not to put their own defense in a tight spot. It was only in the second leg of the intermediate round that the Slovenians managed to keep a clean sheet for the first time in the competition, so now they had to do so again.
With 2-2 and 2-0, APOEL Nikosia was knocked out, which not everyone had expected. In any case, Celje has made an impressive comeback, as the first five games in the Conference League were anything but positive.
1:3 against Guimaraes, 5:1 against Basaksehir, 1:2 against Betis Sevilla, 3:3 against Jagiellonia and 0:2 against Pafos, especially the defense showed itself to be very insecure.
The 3-2 win against New Saints broke the deadlock, and they managed to qualify for the playoffs at the last minute. Does it make a difference where you let the team play?
possibly. The three group games played away from home were all lost, with at least two goals conceded in each game, so the 2-0 win at APOEL Nikosia was all the more surprising.
With Armandas Kucys, they have a very dangerous attacker in their ranks, who has already scored five goals in the tournament. However, since he scored four of his five goals at home, he will have to work hard on Thursday.
Can Lugano make up the narrow deficit at home against Celje? The Swiss actually showed themselves from a strong side in the Conference League, so the defeat in the first leg was all the more surprising.
Now I assume that home advantage can be decisive. I wouldn’t count on Lugano progressing directly. Celje have always fought hard in recent games, so I can definitely imagine it going to extra time.
Since this will only happen if Lugano is victorious on Thursday, my tip is:
Lugano beats Celje!
