Premier League, Sunday, 14.04.2024
David Moyes has adopted a style of play that may not be to everyone’s taste, but often leads to success. West Ham are the reigning Conference League winners and are scratching at the top six in the Premier League once again.
The Hammers have only lost three league games at home at the London Stadium. There is a good chance that this number will remain high for the upcoming matchday. Fulham have not won more than two games away from home.
My West Ham Fulham tip is “West Ham over 1.5 goals” and has odds of 1.94 at NEObet.
West Ham United is a thankless opponent for many teams. The Hammers have little interest in possession (40.8 percent on average) and like to entrench themselves in their own defensive third.
High pressing is not one of the home side’s preferences (16.0 PPDA), but extremely quick switching with plenty of open space in front of them. No other Premier League team moves the ball around the pitch faster than David Moyes’ team (2.01 m/s)
This style of play often prevents defeat, especially at home. West Ham have only suffered three defeats at the London Stadium. It is therefore almost surprising that the win odds in the Interwetten app are quite high at 2.40.
Especially if you take a closer look at the visitors from Fulham. The Cottagers have not won more than two away games (0.69 points per away appearance) and still have only slightly higher odds to win up to 2.90.
In my opinion, the Cottagers’ desolate defensive behavior is reason enough to place my free bet on a home win for the Hammers.
Fulham have already conceded 35(!) goals away from home – only Luton Town (38) have conceded more away from home.
A perfect example of the sometimes chaotic conditions in the Cottagers’ back line was on display on the last matchday (0:1 against Newcastle). When they conceded, nine (!) Fulham players were standing in their own penalty area and were unable to prevent Bruno Guimaraes from casually slotting in the winning goal.
After these pictures, I’m no longer at all surprised by the Cottagers’ rate of 69 percent of away games with “Over 1.5 goals conceded”
Unconcentration like this is usually punished rigorously by West Ham. The Hammers dissect their opponents’ defenses with their counter-attacks and were the most successful team in the Premier League (9 goals) after transitional moments.
In addition, David Moyes has one of the best weapons after set-pieces – the foot of James Ward-Prose. The specialist for resting balls hits standards like other artists paint canvases.
So it can hardly be otherwise that the Hammers bring a certain standard strength to the pitch (10 goals). Only three league rivals have scored more expected goals after a stoppage than the home side (12.02 xG).
The visitors got off to a good start in the second half of the season, but then completely squandered their momentum. Fulham have been winless for three matchdays (2 defeats, 1 draw) and have conceded 6 goals in their last two away matches.
Since neither West Ham (58.2 xGA) nor Fulham (55.3 xGA) can rely on their backline, low odds for “Over 2.5 goals” in the match were to be expected. This is confirmed by the low odds of around 1.59.
If you would like to predict a specific goalscorer in this match, I advise you to pick Rodrigo Muniz. The visiting attacker has scored eight goals since February – only Phil Foden (9) has scored more in the same period.
According to my analysis, I see a good chance in a bet on “Over 3.5 goals”. Two of the six weakest expected defenses in the Premier League meet.
The visitors are the second-weakest away defense in the English top flight, conceding an average of 2.19 goals per away trip
In addition, 44 percent of home games at the London Stadium have been played with “Over 3.5 goals” in the match. The same rate was produced by the Cottagers’ previous away games.
Figures of this magnitude are actually hard to imagine when you consider that the two teams take to the pitch with the oldest starting eleven on average and there should normally be plenty of experience available.
West Ham are an unpleasant package with a clear philosophy that coach David Moyes has deeply embedded in the DNA of his players. Standing deep, counter-attacking quickly and being effective from set-pieces – that is the bread and butter of the home side.
Clarity and stringency in attack are poison for the visitors’ shaky defense, who have conceded more away goals than 18 other league rivals (35).
My West Ham Fulham tip is therefore: West Ham to score at least two goals
