Serie A, Friday, 14.03.2025 at 20:45
If you’re looking for a Genoa Lecce betting tip, it’s definitely worth taking a look at my predictions. The hosts are strong at home, while Lecce have big problems away from home. If my analysis is correct, no three goals should be scored at Luigi Ferraris on Friday.
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Genoa FC have proven to be a difficult team to beat in recent weeks, which is reflected above all in the recent draws. Patrick Vieira’s men have salvaged a point three times after falling behind – a clear sign of morale and fighting spirit.
Nevertheless, they have only managed one win in their last five games, and only against a team threatened by relegation.
Especially against mid-table Serie A opponents, the team lacks the necessary coolness to make the leap into the top half of the table.
However, the Ligurians’ great asset remains their strength at home – especially against weaker teams. And they will need to draw on that on Friday!
The traditional club rarely slip up against teams that are lower in the table. Only two defeats from 13 games against such opponents speak for themselves.
And the “Grifoni” have a particularly impressive record against Lecce in their home stadium. The southern Italians have not been victorious in Genoa since 1998, and the Ligurian hosts have always prevailed in the last four home duels.
With these statistics behind them, Vieira’s side will go into this clash with confidence – especially as their opponents from Apulia are currently in a very weak position.
Lecce are in the midst of a crisis. Before the match against Milan, the southern Italian side had not scored a single goal in four games and appeared to be completely harmless in attack.
They then took a surprising 2:0 lead against the “Rossoneri”, but still ended up with a bitter 2:3 defeat.
This was the third defeat in a row for Marco Giampaolo’s team – and it was always a close affair with just a one-goal difference. However, they have failed to pick up any points and their lead over the relegation places has shrunk dramatically.
Interestingly, Lecce have looked slightly better away from home than at home recently. They have won two of their last five away games, including important matches against direct rivals from the bottom of the table such as Parma and Empoli.
But as soon as they face stronger opponents, things start to look bleak. In the last ten away games against better-placed teams, Lecce have picked up just a single point and have failed to score seven times.
This statistic should give Genoa additional encouragement because, as I’ve already told you, the “Grifoni” usually manage to produce their best performances against Serie A clubs ranked below them.
I’m expecting a tight, low-scoring affair, as has often been the case between the two clubs.
After all, the first-round duel in January even ended in a draw. So I wouldn’t be shocked if there were very few goalmouth scrambles this time either.
Watch out: In just ten Serie A games played by Lecce this season, both teams scored a goal. That’s more than any other rival in the league!
There are hardly any promising scenarios in this match that have an extremely high probability of occurrence and at the same time have presentable odds.
Whether “Draw”, “Double chance 1X” or a “Home win” – with values of 3.05, 1.20 and 2.05 respectively, these scenarios are not exactly suitable for placing profitable soccer bets on this basis.
Conclusion: Both teams are expected to deliver an exciting, low-scoring duel reminiscent of the first-round match, which ended 0-0. The chances of a similar result are not bad.
Nevertheless, the hosts, Genoa, have slightly the better cards due to their home strength and current form and could end up with the upper hand – possibly only thanks to the only goal of the game.
My Genoa Lecce: Under 2.5 goals
