ATP Masters Indian Wells, semi-final, Saturday, 15.03.2025, 00:30
Will it finally be enough for the title in 2025 or will he end up empty-handed again? Daniil Medvedev is just one step away from the final in Indian Wells. However, the man who already hurt him in 2023 and 2024 could be waiting in the final.
But first things first, let’s take a look at my Rune Medvedev tip. I’d like to tell you why I think the two-time finalist will come out on top and why I’m going for a win bet.
Lose the final of a major Masters twice in a row? More than annoying! That’s exactly what happened to Daniil Medvedev in Indian Wells; both last year and the year before last, Carlos Alcaraz was one size too big in the end.
Good for Medvedev: Not facing Alcaraz in the semi-finals. Bad for Medvedev: There is a very high probability that the Spaniard will be waiting again in the final! But first, of course, the Russian has to overcome the last hurdle before the final.
Holger Rune awaits, the two met here in Indian Wells last year. Medvedev prevailed in the quarter-finals just as easily as he did in the final in Rome in 2023, with a 2:1 lead in the direct comparison.
If our Apple Pay bookmakers have their way, Medvedev is once again ahead with average odds of 1.54 to 2.40.
The 29-year-old embarrassed himself at the Australian Open at the beginning of the year, losing early to Learner Tien. He also performed poorly in the following tournaments and never reached a final.
This makes it all the more important for him to survive in Indian Wells. He started off by beating Bu Yunchaokete 6-2, 6-2, before Alex Michelsen retired immediately after the start of the match.
Medvedev showed his best tennis against Tommy Paul, knocking the American out with a quick 6-4, 6-0. Medvedev had to fight hard in the quarter-finals against Arthur Fils. 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 – the spectators got their money’s worth!
Medvedev cheated his way through on serve, winning only 61% of the points on his first service. Three break opportunities were enough, he himself gave Fils the chance eight times.
Is it a good omen that the Russian has never failed to reach a semi-final in Indian Wells? If he loses, it will be much earlier in the tournament or in the final.
For Holger Rune, on the other hand, a semi-final in Indian Wells is a first. His best result in 2024 was a quarter-final, but he was beaten by the aforementioned Medvedev. How has the Dane performed so far this year?
His Australian Open was actually not bad at all, he was knocked out in the round of 16 against the eventual champion Jannik Sinner. After that, however, he was unable to confirm his promising form.
Rune only made it as far as the round of 16, so it was not necessarily to be expected that he would play in the final in Indian Wells. He started with a 6-2, 6-4 win over Corentin Moutet and then knocked out Ugo Humbert 5-7, 6-4, 7-5.
Stefanos Tsitsipas was also cleared out of the way, with Rune collecting a 6-4, 6-4 win. Against Tallon Griekspoor, the 21-year-old showed morale for the second time after falling behind, winning 5-7, 6-0, 6-3. There’s no question that he didn’t have the easiest of opponents.
While he made nine double faults against Humbert, he pulled himself together afterwards. Here in Indian Wells, he finally seems to have found the consistency that he simply couldn’t bring to the court before.
The problem: With Holger Rune, you never know exactly how long a supposed stability will last. Will the motivation to play his first final in 2025 be big enough now?
My Rune Medvedev tip
We’re up against a surprisingly strong Holger Rune! The Dane has shown his best side in Indian Wells, knocking out strong opponents. But now Daniil Medvedev awaits, who wants to reach the final for the third time in a row.
In my opinion, we will see a duel at eye level here. Medvedev’s experience could be decisive, which is why I’m betting on a close result and ultimately predicting:
Medvedev makes it to the final!
