La Liga, Monday, 15.04.2024
I don’t expect many goals in the game between Osasuna and Valencia on Monday evening. I could rather imagine a complete draw between the two opponents.
A quick glance at the bats’ recent results is enough to see that. Only three goals have been scored in the visitors’ last four league games!
For my Osasuna Valencia betting tip, I don’t need much imagination to package “Valencia under 0.5 goals” as a suitable option. I feel very comfortable with the odds of 2.20 at Tipwin
The route to a high-scoring game on the upcoming matchday leads past Osasuna’s Estadio El Sadar with a large safety margin.
Neutral spectators should only tune in to this encounter if they are die-hard defensive fans. Both Osasuna and Valencia finished 60 percent of their league games with “Under 2.5 goals” in the match!
I can really see a single goal deciding this clash. A low-scoring result also makes a soccer bet with a focus on a winner more difficult, which is why I won’t be targeting a three-way bet in this pairing.
Crazybuzzer and the other bookmakers do not expect goals on either side, otherwise the odds would be significantly higher than 1.62.
Of course, I can’t blame the bookmakers for this assessment, simply because six of the last seven league games of the visitors with a bet on “Both teams score: No” would have been successful
The bats don’t care much about possession (44.04 percent). In an emergency, they are even happy to give up big chances if that is the price of defensive stability.
Only two teams in La Liga have scored fewer expected goals than the Bats (31.5 xG).
The 51 “big chances” created are similarly poor, with only six La Liga rivals beating them. What is exciting, however, is that Valencia (3.5 shots on goal per game) even put slightly more balls into the opposing box than Osasuna (3.4).
But that’s not the point and it’s not really relevant, as both teams are in the bottom third of the Spanish Primera Division with their expected goals from play.
Valencia, however, have the disadvantage that this game takes place away from home and that has rarely ended well for the bats.
Visiting coach Ruben Baraja has not allowed his players to score in 40 percent of their appearances and has therefore only seen four away wins in the entire season
Osasuna have had little interest in setting up opposing teams with goals given away at their own stadium.
In fact, “Los Rojillos” have kept enough distance to concede a goal in 40 percent of their home games to keep a clean sheet.
Before the last home game against Real Madrid (2:4), the home side’s defense showed all its quality and kept a clean sheet in two consecutive appearances at El Sadar.
After five of the last six encounters between the bats have produced a maximum of one goal, my Interwetten coupon will fall on the odds of 2.50 for “Under 1.5 goals” in the match.
One of the reasons for this is the visitors’ defense, which is one of the four best defenses in the Spanish top flight with 1.1 goals conceded per game.
Of course, Valencia’s timid attack also plays a role, having failed to score in three of their last four appearances and four of their previous seven league games
There is little sign of Valencia’s interest in carving out goalscoring opportunities from the back row. According to Soccerment, the goalkeeper plays the fourth-highest percentage of long balls (74%).
So there is very little combination soccer to be seen from Ruben Baraja’s team. In addition, they tend to resort to long-range shots far too often.
Only three other teams score a higher percentage of their shots from outside the sixteen than Valencia (41%).
Of course, efficiency falls by the wayside with this type of finish. As indicated at the top of this article, the visitors are more concerned with closing down dangerous areas and taking few risks.
With the exception of Celta Vigio (14.3 PPDA), no other La Liga team allows more passes per defensive action than Valencia (14.2).
As a result, the visitors have few opportunities to be successful from winning the ball high up the pitch. So far, only one high ball win has led to a goal
This game is predestined to be a low-scoring encounter in which perhaps just one goal could decide the match.
If it goes like this, I think Osasuna are much more likely to score than Valencia. The visitors have already scored 40 percent of their guest appearances without scoring.
My Osasuna Valencia tip: Valencia will NOT score
