World Cup Qualifiers, Saturday, 22.03.2025 at 18:00
Group L – there is obviously no shortage of participants! The World Cup qualifiers in Europe start this week and I have to admit: Not all the games sound like an absolute treat at first.
My Montenegro Gibraltar tip … probably not at first either! The home side are clearly favored, because Gibraltar is one of the big soccer dwarves.
Accordingly, I’ll tell you in my analysis why I’ve considered betting on under 3.5 goals here.
If you’re number 73 in the world and get average odds of 1.06 to win, then you can only be in an international qualifier! The national team from Montenegro is determined to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
In qualifying Group L, they will be up against the Faroe Islands, Gibraltar and the Czech Republic. There’s no question about it: four wins are a must, but the Czechs will be a real tough nut to crack.
The Falcons failed to convince me last year, however, and their trip to Group B of the Nations League was short-lived. Wales, Iceland and Turkey were too demanding overall.
They only won against Turkey on the final matchday, but even before the 3:1 win it was clear that there was no chance of them making it out of the group. Before that, it had been one defeat after another.
Two 2-0 defeats against Iceland, 2-1 and 1-0 against Wales, a 1-0 loss to Turkey in the first leg – nothing at all offensively. It didn’t help the Montenegrins that the defeats were all pretty close.
Nikola Krstovic is to thank for the fact that they at least managed something against Turkey, as he scored all three goals. Incidentally, the other two victories last year came against Belarus and North Macedonia.
Montenegro scored exactly eight goals in their ten international matches in 2024, and the only credit I can give them is that they only conceded more than two goals once
2021, the last time they qualified for a World Cup, they won three matches. Two of them, you almost guessed it, were against Gibraltar, as they were also in the same group at the time.
The Falcons won 4:1 and 3:0. Clear victories, but you still can’t call these results a demonstration of power. What can the fans expect this time when the whistle blows in Niksic?
Your team is clearly favored, after all, your opponents are bobbing around many, many places further back in the world rankings. Gibraltar barely make it into the top 200, so it doesn’t get any more soccer dwarf than that.
I probably don’t even need to tell you that the visitors have never played in an international tournament and probably won’t in the future either
But beware: they didn’t lose seven out of ten international matches last year! Of course, this also has to do with the opponents, as Gibraltar played in the lowest Nations League group.
The results: 2:2 and 0:0 against Liechtenstein, plus 1:0 and 1:1 against San Marino. No, there really weren’t any game-winning revelations. The test matches perhaps brought slightly stronger opponents.
They lost 2-0 to Scotland and drew against Wales (0-0) and Moldova (1-1). They won 1-0 against Andorra. Goal threat? Rather less. Many blatant defensive errors? Just as little!
Defensively, Gibraltar were not so bad in 2024. In the last World Cup qualifiers in 2021, they conceded 43 goals in ten games, with Turkey, Holland and Norway in particular making life difficult for Gibraltar.
What is definitely interesting, however, is that they only conceded one goal before the break last year. If the defense is stable again in the first half on Saturday and Montenegro fail to score here, the odds at Betano will skyrocket to an incredible 3.35.
Can Gibraltar at least earn a point this time? The tiny soccer nation is regularly shot down, but now at least there are no really tough opponents in the smaller qualifying group.
Montenegro are clearly better individually, of course. The Falcons didn’t have a good year in 2024, however, and I noticed major deficits in attack in particular – Nikola Krstovic can’t do everything on his own.
That’s why I can well imagine that the favorites will need some time to get into the game. The visitors will probably concentrate on defending, so all in all I can only make a prediction:
The 3.5 goals will not be scored!
