ATP Masters in Miami, Quarterfinals, Friday, 28.03.2025
We are taking big steps towards the final! At the Miami Masters, Alexander Zverev is now the last German representative out. But a local hero is preparing to let the fans dream of an American final.
In my Berrettini Fritz betting tip, I am dealing with a match that, at least historically, can only have one winner. So now I’ll tell you why I’m backing Fritz – even though the bookmakers are being cautious!
Before I start my analysis, I’d like to tell you what the PayPal betting providers have decided. They already see Fritz in front, but average odds of 1.50 to 2.50 also show how close it can be in the end.
Well, let’s take a look at what both opponents have achieved so far in Miami. Taylor Fritz has not yet lost a single set, which is pretty strong.
He started with a 7-6, 6-3 win against Lorenzo Sonego, followed up with a 7-5, 6-3 win against Denis Shapovalov. In the round of 16, the current world number 4 defeated Adam Walton 6-3, 7-5.
Walton and Sonego had no chance at all to break, while Shapovalov defended three of four break points. For each of his own breaks, the American sent nine balls over the net.
In addition, he won 85% of his points on his first serve and only committed one double fault. There is no question that the 6’5” player’s service was on point in all three matches.
And Miami is not even his favorite Masters, he has only reached the quarterfinals once. In 2023, he lost here to Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets. So his best tournament result has already been achieved; a semi-final would be a pleasing first.
So far, 2025 has not gone according to plan for Fritz. At the Australian Open, he lost in round 3 to Gael Monfils, after which he only won a maximum of two matches per competition.
The fact that he is now facing Matteo Berrettini should please Fritz. The two have met four times so far – and all four duels went to the American. The last time they faced each other was at the 2024 US Open, which Fritz won 6-3, 7-6, 6-1.
Four duels, four tiebreaks – when two players with almost two meters in height meet, that’s not surprising. Accordingly, I can tell you: If you place the tiebreak bet at Bet365, the odds will be below 1.40!
So you would have to go over 1.5 tiebreaks to get a profitable 4.00 odds. However, both Fritz and Berrettini have only played one tiebreak in this Masters.
The Roman, who is back in the top 30 in the world after a series of injuries, has actually won a match in the Miami main draw for the first time ever this year!
So the curse has been broken. Berrettini began with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory over Hugo Gaston, then beat Zizou Bergs 6-4, 6-4. He caused a major upset in the round of 16.
He defeated Alex de Minaur 6-3, 7-6! On average, the 28-year-old does not quite reach the 80% first serve win rate, and de Minaur had nine break chances (only two used).
So in terms of service, I would rate Fritz as a little stronger. Berrettini had lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Indian Wells and Dubai, and was knocked out by Jack Draper in Qatar. That means: only strong opponents were involved in his defeats.
My Berrettini Fritz prediction
Will Matteo Berrettini sensationally make it to the Miami semi-finals? The tournament of hate and him, a friendship is finally emerging here. But in Taylor Fritz, he now faces a man he can’t stand, at least in terms of sport.
The American has won all four duels and, fittingly, has not yet lost a single set in Miami. It could be a close game, but in the end I have to go for the following tip:
Fritz beats Berrettini!
