Bundesliga 27th matchday, Saturday, 29/03/2025 at 3:30 pm
The pressure on Bayern is huge! After a few shaky weeks, the record champions cannot afford any further slip-ups if they want to keep their place in the sun. A win against the promoted team from the Hanseatic city is mandatory – anything else would be a disaster.
However, the Kiez club has shown that it is difficult to play against. Defensively compact and with brave forward thrusts, the Kiez kickers could at least cause unrest at times. But is that enough to seriously endanger FCB?
Ahead of the Champions League quarter-final, Bayern will also be looking to build up their self-confidence and get a clear lead early on. After all, dropping another point could well put the “Werkself” on course for the championship.
Yes, this is indeed unusual for FC Bayern! Two Bundesliga games without a win is almost a crisis by Munich standards – especially when you consider that they have only dropped a total of five points in the previous twelve games.
This period of weakness is a very bad time just before the important Champions League quarter-finals.
The big question now is whether they can get back on track against FC St. Pauli. Or is there a risk of another setback that would make the championship even more exciting?
The fact is, a convincing victory would be worth its weight in gold – both for the table and for morale. But they shouldn’t underestimate the guests from Hamburg.
The betting tipsters’ prediction?
The Bayern St. Pauli odds of any decent betting provider with PayPal leave no room for doubt: Munich are the overwhelming favorites. With 1.15 on the home win, the bookmakers are counting on a confident victory.
A draw, on the other hand, is around 9.00, while a sensational victory for St. Pauli would be rewarded with odds of around 15.0. Those who actually believe in such a surprise can make a killing with just a small bet.
AI prediction Bayern vs St. Pauli: That’s what ChatGPT tips
The Bayern St. Pauli AI prediction from ChatGPT brings some interesting betting options with it. But as so often lately, the risky suggestion has not been optimally chosen for me in relation to the probability of occurrence and the potential win.
For the high risk, “Bayern win with handicap -3” is suggested at 3.70, but ChatGPT can forget about that! Because St. Pauli will also do brilliantly in the second leg.
At medium risk, the tip is “FCB does not score in both halves” at 2.15. I like that a lot better, because I can well imagine that only one goal will be scored in this game.
Finally, for a safe bet, the AI recommends “Both teams score? No!” at odds of around 1.60. A very good suggestion, because Bayern will struggle, but the Kiezkicker should hardly get past the halfway line.
Analysis: Bayern vs St. Pauli
Bayern Munich are once again entering a break between international matches without having won in their last two Bundesliga games. They are now just six points ahead of Bayer Leverkusen, but under Vincent Kompany, a direct home win followed the last such phase.
Munich have also been dominant at the Allianz Arena, but they recently lost 3-2 to Bochum after leading 2-0. Prior to that, they had won ten Bundesliga home games in a row, which underlines their home strength.
St. Pauli, on the other hand, are not in acute danger of relegation despite a difficult start to the season and recently beat Hoffenheim 1-0.
They have shown their strength away from home: four of their Bundesliga wins so far have been away from home – in each case without conceding a goal. Nevertheless, the hoped-for result did not materialize recently, as they remained winless in their last three away games.
It is also striking that they have scored very few goals in their away games. None of their last six Bundesliga away games exceeded the 2.5-goal mark, with exactly two goals scored in the last four games.
Another hard-fought game with close results therefore seems possible.
Odds analysis
In the case of the Kiezkicker, defense is the best offense. Consequently, I am incorporating my impressions from the first-leg duel more strongly into possible football bets for next Saturday, which I would also place myself.
“Under 3.5 goals” at odds of 1.63 is such a value-packed Bayern St. Pauli tip that you can place yourself at any time on a secure betting app.
Because if Musiala hadn’t fired an insane shot from the second row, it would have been 0-0 at the end just under four months ago.
Bayern vs. St. Pauli: Bayern dominance!
The FCB cannot and should not show its nakedness – not against this opponent. Munich has dominated the duels with St. Pauli for years and has won eight of the last nine competitive games against the neighborhood kickers.
The only time the record champions were beaten was in February 2002, when they lost 2-1. Bayern have rarely let anything slip, especially at home: they have won six of their eight home games against St. Pauli and drawn the other, with their only defeat coming in March 1991.
With this record in mind, anything other than a clear victory for Bayern would be a huge surprise.
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By the way: Goal bets on Kane are no longer worthwhile at the moment. The Bayern striker is stuck in his longest Bundesliga goal drought and has not scored in the last five league games – something he has never done in Germany before.
Although he has scored against 18 of the 19 teams he has played against in the Bundesliga so far, he has not scored against his upcoming opponent St. Pauli, of all teams.
So it would be no surprise if his dry spell continued next Saturday.
Many goals at Bayern against St. Pauli? No way!
Two real defensive bulwarks will face each other here, which is why I can well imagine that it could be 0-0 for a long time. After all, FC Bayern has the best defense in the Bundesliga, with only 24 goals conceded.
But St. Pauli has also stabilized enormously defensively and has only conceded 30 goals so far – only two teams in the league are even more secure.
Impressive: Since 2000, only three promoted teams have conceded fewer goals after 26 matchdays, the last being VfB Stuttgart in the 2017/18 season with 29 goals conceded. A wear-and-tear battle with few goals is therefore entirely conceivable.
That’s the second-best figure in the league – only the upcoming opponents themselves are better, because Bayern only allowed 55 shots on target.
In the first leg in Hamburg, Munich already had major problems creating chances: their expected goals value was just 0.8 – only when they played 0-0 in Leverkusen in February was it even lower at 0.1 xG.
Another game of patience for the favorites cannot be ruled out.
My Bayern St. Pauli Tip:
The Bavarians will have to be patient and probably wait just as long for the opening goal as they did in the first leg.
In the first 15 minutes, it is unlikely to ring, because the Kiezkicker are known to be adept at forming deep and even slowing down strong opposing attacks.
A win for FCB seems likely in the end, but instead of a clear victory, it is likely to be a hard-fought victory.
Therefore, my Bayern St. Pauli tip is: Win Bayern & Under 4.5 goals.
