Bundesliga 27th matchday, Sunday, 30.03.2025 at 17:30
The third plays against the eleventh, Mainz face Dortmund. Well, the teams were written down in the wrong order, there’s no other way. What would Mainz want at the top of the table in the fight for a place in the Champions League at the end of the season?
My Dortmund-Mainz tip is a topsy-turvy world, because the teams were named in exactly the right order!
On Sunday, Mainz, who have been playing furiously, will travel to a BVB team that has been a mystery to us for months and is simply no longer getting going in the Bundesliga.
And so it will probably not surprise many that I am now saying: I am betting on the double chance X2 here and ruling out a win for the black and yellows. Interestingly, not only the current table, but also the recent history in this duel, speaks against it.
In my analysis, I will now provide you with all the important facts so that you too may consider the DC bet in the end. With odds of 2.24, which I found at NEO.bet, this tip is a bit riskier.
In any case, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jonathan Burkardt and Co. further exacerbate Borussia’s crisis. Or as they would say in Dortmund in this case: Well, let’s just focus on the Champions League, where, oddly enough, we’re playing really well!
The betting providers’ prediction?
Dortmund may have been in crisis for months, but our PayPal bookmakers still take the classic approach. That is: a home game, BVB has to be ahead. In terms of odds, that’s the case, you get an average of 1.70.
The Mainz team will certainly be able to cope with being sent into the race with 4.70. They know that we have only lost one of the last five duels in the Signal-Iduna-Park!
The 05ers could certainly live with a draw better than the Dortmunders. It is important to know that three of the last four direct duels in which BVB had home advantage did not have a winner. The draw odds of 3.95 are correspondingly interesting.
AI prediction Dortmund vs Mainz: That’s what ChatGPT tips
How does ChatGPT deal with the fact that Dortmund just can’t get consistency into their season? Let’s just say that the tips the AI provides me with for this encounter are really very interesting.
For example, we are offered the handicap bet “Dortmund -2 HC”. My opinion: Definitely not! In 2005, BVB only won one home game against 05 so clearly, and the current form curves really don’t match at all.
I’m more comfortable with the medium-risk bet that Serhou Guirassy will score. He has scored six times in his last five games against Mainz, and was also successful in the first half of the season.
How many goals will be scored in the game as a whole? The AI suggests a total under 3.5. This is entirely possible, because: Mainz has only conceded 16 goals away from home, keeping a clean sheet four times. I don’t think it will be a rout either.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Mainz
A sense of optimism after the change of coach? Not at Borussia Dortmund. Since Niko Kovac has been in charge of the team’s sporting fortunes, the results have by no means improved.
Four defeats and two wins, BVB cannot be satisfied with such a result. The season is getting more and more out of hand, and the club has now slipped to eleventh place in the table.
Well, since the competition is not exactly covering itself in glory either, a gap of ten points to fourth place can theoretically still be made up. But that would require a streak, and that’s exactly what people don’t really expect of Borussia.
What is a streak, anyway? A team that has only scored three goals in a double pack once in the entire season is entitled to ask that question! Two measly games were won away from home, and only against Heidenheim and St. Pauli.
But suddenly, Dortmund is also starting to weaken at home. They have already lost three home games in the second half of the season, most recently they were completely out of their depth in the 1-0 defeat to FC Augsburg.
Odds Analysis
Dortmund have already gone four games without scoring in the second half of the season. Since Mainz are really good at defending on the counter, the risky tip “BVB don’t score” might be something for you. At Winamax, it has odds of 5.50!
At the same time, I am of course also keeping an eye on Jonathan Burkardt, the Mainz high-flyer. Since he has scored nine of his 15 goals this season away from home, the weekend’s goal bet could definitely be worthwhile at odds of 3.30.
If I had to choose an outright betting prediction, I would actually go for a 1-2 scoreline. In three of the last four meetings, Mainz have scored at least twice, and I’m just not convinced by BVB’s form. If you want to take that risk, you can find a great odds of 15.5 at Betano.
Dortmund vs. Mainz: Dortmund’s offense has its work cut out
A 0-2 defeat to RB Leipzig followed on the heels of that, and it could be the third time this second half of the season (counting from match day 16) that there is a triple pack of defeats! Dortmund is playing the worst Bundesliga season in exactly ten years.
Could this even be topped? No goal has been scored twice in a row. If this happens again against Mainz, it would be the first time since March 2007 that the team has gone so long without scoring a goal.
With Marcel Sabitzer, an injured player is now also being added, which is likely to further dampen the mood. I’ve already touched on the fact that Mainz 05 is anything but a favorite opponent, and not just because of the 3-1 defeat in the first half of the season.
Dortmund have not won against Mainz in four games, and only two of the last seven home games have ended in victory. It has been nine years since the Black & Yellows last kept a clean sheet at home against 05ers, in March 2016.
Mainz sings and laughs
37 times the two teams have met directly, there has actually only been a really clear victory with more than two goals in the aggregate three times – although BVB would certainly be satisfied with a plain 1-0 on Sunday.
The Mainz team may be traveling as clear outsiders, according to the bookmakers, but that won’t bother them at all. After all, anyone who is in third place after 26 matchdays must be doing something right.
Although the competition is not far behind, Mainz definitely has what it takes to hold its own. The minor crisis around the turn of the year, when three out of four games were lost, has long been forgotten.
After four wins in a row, three of which had a two-goal lead, this streak has been broken, but a 2-2 draw against Freiburg is really no reason not to be satisfied.
Of course, Jonathan Burkardt was successful again here, who has only been left without a goal three times in a row once this season. The Rhine Hessians have also got back into form away from home.
The crisis in January brought three defeats, but now there have been three consecutive wins again. 3-1 against Gladbach, 2-1 in Leipzig, so they are also winning against teams that would like to be third themselves.
With 16 goals conceded, the Reds also have the second-best away defense behind FC Bayern with twelve goals conceded. It is interesting, however, that there have only been two 0-0 halftimes in away games.
Unfortunately, I also have to report that the 05ers will have to compensate for absences at the weekend. Dominik Kohr is missing due to a suspension, and Philipp Mwene cannot travel to Dortmund for the same reason.
When Kohr was last unable to play in Leipzig, the team still won 2-1 without him. Will Lee Jae-Sung play a special role? Anyone who scores six goals in six games against Dortmund should definitely be watched.
My Dortmund Mainz tip:
Dortmund looks enviously to Mainz, because what is happening there is also hoped for by the black and yellow. It’s a bit of an upside-down world in this duel, because suddenly Mainz are the candidates who want to get into the Champions League.
The 05ers are in great form, also taught Leipzig the meaning of fear and know that only FC Bayern defends better. As for BVB, I’m sorry for all the fans, but I can’t see any hope of an imminent turnaround.
They recently lost 1-0 at home to Augsburg and then failed to score in Leipzig. Since the direct comparison against Mainz also spoke against the Borussians, I have decided on the following tip:
Mainz takes something away from Dortmund!
