Bundesliga matchday 28, Friday, 04.04.2025 at 20:30
Six points ahead – but appearances are still a little deceptive! FC Bayern has surprisingly started to slip, the championship title seems to be in danger. Tonight, Munich open the 28th round with a short trip on the agenda. The opponent: the current bulwark of Europe.
FC Augsburg, you wouldn’t believe it, have quietly crept up to the international places, are defending brilliantly and are hardly letting anything in.
And some of you will also know that FCB have often found themselves swimming in the WWK Arena in recent years.
So it should come as no surprise to you when I say that there is room for a handicap bet in my Augsburg Bayern tip. In this case, I’m giving the home side a 2:0 advantage and assume that will be enough for a “win”.
Away from home, the German record champions have been delivering one close result after another for months. What’s more, it could well be that one or two players already have the Champions League on their minds, which awaits a few days later in the form of the quarter-final first leg against Inter Milan.
To sum up, it will probably be anything but an easy away game for the league leaders. A slip-up wouldn’t come as a complete surprise to me – and at the same time, of course, would cause a storm of joy in Leverkusen.
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
It’s a bit like always: When Bayern meet Augsburg, they are favored regardless of the venue. But: This time the odds are quite close, almost approaching 1.50 on average.
On the other hand, FCA won’t be bothered at all by the fact that they are seen as underdogs. If you want to bet on a home win, you will be offered an average of 6.60 – of course, you should know that the Fuggerstädter have been unbeaten at home for almost three months.
A draw would of course be a major blunder for the visitors. However, as Augsburg have collected five draws in the last eight rounds alone, it’s better not to rule out a points split at odds of 4.60 from the outset.
AI prediction Augsburg vs Bayern: ChatGPT
How does ChatGPT manage to pigeonhole this Bavarian derby? The three bets with different levels of risk are very interesting for me, starting with the riskiest one.
This refers to a home win for FCA. Quite risky, given that Bayern have won their last five games by a total of 19 goals. However, Augsburg had previously suffered two defeats. So my conclusion is: really VERY risky, but not out of the question.
In addition, the AI recommends betting on the Bavarian Swabians to score the first goal of the game. Given that they are incredibly strong defensively and have gone behind exactly once since mid-January, I’m quite happy with this bet.
The classic BTS also finds its place in Chat GPT. Admittedly, FCA don’t score like crazy, but: In the last ten years, there has only been one home game against Bayern in which no goals have been scored. That’s why I fully support this tip:
Analysis: Augsburg vs Bayern
Powder keg FC Bayern! Things are not at all quiet at the Isar in the hot phase of this season. The injury misery has hit hard, the drama surrounding Thomas Müller is coming to a head and the table isn’t exactly providing much relief either.
But first things first. Munich went into the international break with very disappointing results of 2:3 against Bochum and 1:1 against Union Berlin. Unfortunately, not all the stars returned healthy.
Dayot Upamecano will miss a few weeks, but Alphonso Davies’ cruciate ligament rupture was even worse news. Manuel Neuer’s injury has flared up again and now Hiroki Ito has also been hit
Kingsley Coman’s participation in Augsburg is uncertain, Aleksandar Pavlovic is far from ready to return and, on top of that, Joshua Kimmich and Harry Kane will have to be careful not to pick up a fifth yellow card.
I mention this because the following matchday is against Borussia Dortmund. Although BVB are not a contender for the title this season, there is a lot of prestige involved in this duel.
Odds Analysis
Bayern and their tight away stories have been going on for almost half a year now. So my advice: If you want to bet on a win for the record champions, then perhaps not with trumpets and trumpets. The Bet365 app has odds of 3.75 for a win by exactly one goal.
If I had to decide on a result bet as a result, my choice would be 2:1. If you want to take this risk, you will be met with average odds of 8.50.
Since Christmas, the Fuggerstädter have only conceded one goal in the first half. My strategy is therefore clear: bet that FCB will not score before the break on Friday. The odds are a strong 2.30 at Betano.
Augsburg vs. Bayern: Will FCA inflict serious damage on Bayern?
Furthermore, the news that Thomas Müller will no longer receive a new contract caused a wave of indignation. So even before I look at the results, it’s already clear that things could be about to get really bad at the Isar.
The recent 3:2 win against St. Pauli hardly contributed to a sense of calm. Leverkusen are only six points away, and the first CL quarter-final against Inter Milan takes place just four days after the game in Augsburg.
Three wins from the last seven away games? I can definitely see some catching up to do here. I also have to mention that Bayern have found it very difficult to record really clear, commanding victories away from home.
Since a 5:0 win against Bochum at the end of October, there has only been one win with a lead of more than one goal – and the 3:1 against VfB Stuttgart only came about after falling behind in the meantime.
Bayern have the best record in both offense and defense, but somehow I get the feeling that they are not completely happy.
After all, the last results against Augsburg speak for themselves: 3:0, 3:2, 3:1, 5:3 and 5:2, you can’t score many more goals than that. Before this series, however, Munich had only won one of four away games against FCA.
FCA are floating on a defensive cloud
Which might be important: Augsburg’s four games without defeat since 2014 have all been in the first half of the season – so as soon as the second half of the season begins, the Fuggerstädter fail to win anything in the derby.
3:2, 0:1, 1:2, 1:0, 2:2, 3:2 – from FCB’s point of view, the list of recent encounters on Augsburg soil shows that they have to fight hard here. Especially this time, because FC Augsburg are stronger than they have been for a long time.
In eighth place, they are only six points behind fourth place, and with the competition not looking to be consistent, the Champions League may even be in the cards. Admittedly, everything would have to go perfectly for that to happen, but why not?
At the moment, nobody in Europe’s top five leagues is defending better. Three goals conceded in the last eleven games makes phenomenal reading. Why the streak was broken at the weekend after six white vests in a row?
Quite simply because there was a highly controversial penalty against FCA. Curious: The three goals just mentioned were conceded against Hoffenheim, St. Pauli and Heidenheim – against Dortmund, Wolfsburg, Freiburg, Gladbach, Leipzig and Mainz, on the other hand, the score stood at zero.
Need I mention that of the eleven games in question, only two just cracked the 2.5 mark? Probably not, because up front the Bavarian Swabians are just about doing what it takes to get the points.
Augsburg have not lost a home game since January 12, but the last time they conceded goals in the first half at home was in December. The incredible statistics of the past few months lead to some really strong facts.
In the home table, for example, nobody has conceded fewer goals, with Augsburg leading the competition together with Mainz with twelve. Keeper Finn Dahmen is even alone at the top with a defensive rate of over 90 percent.
My Augsburg Bayern tip:
Caution, FC Bayern, this FC Augsburg is even more dangerous than usual! Trips to the Fuggerstadt have never been particularly easy for the German record champions in recent years, but this time it could be a real bang.
Munich are severely short of substitutes, have the Champions League on their minds and have not performed as well as they would have liked in their last few games in the Bundesliga. FCA, on the other hand, are defending better than a number of top international clubs.
It’s almost impossible to get past them, and FCB are lacking clear victories away from home anyway. Taking all these factors into account, I have therefore decided to bet on a handicap and place my bet:
Victory Augsburg with HC +2!
