Bundesliga Matchday 28, Saturday, 05.04.2025 at 15:30
No three-pointer directly before and none after the international break for Mainz, yet FSV are still in a Champions League place after two games without a win. And the next task should be doable on paper.
The team bottom of the table is visiting! In my Mainz Kiel betting tip, I wavered between two bets. Ultimately, they are not mutually exclusive anyway.
I opted for the Winamax selection that both teams will score a goal. I’ll tell you why in the next few lines.
Mainz is the surprise team of the season, but I highly doubt that they’ll actually make it to the top flight in the end. A number of clubs are hot on the heels of the 0-fives and I wouldn’t even write off Dortmund completely, despite the large gap.
Mainz went down to defeat at Signal Iduna Park on Sunday, losing 1:3 to BVB, who have been so erratic this season. It was the fourth match in a row in which the clean sheet has failed to materialize and now the best offense from the bottom third of the table is visiting.
The betting providers’ forecast
Our betting providers with PayPal see Mainz ahead at home at 1.46, Kiel starts the 28th matchday with odds of 6.70 to win. The Mainz win is too low for me and the other odds are too hot.
I also don’t dare to go for the double chance X2 (2.56). The 0:3 in the northern duel against Bremen was simply too thin for me. Then I would rather use the 1.32 for the 1X with over 1.5 goals for a combination ticket.
AI prediction Mainz vs. Kiel: This is what ChatGPT
The AI doesn’t find the simple 1X2 odds really interesting either. Instead, ChatGPT has looked around the handicap market and recommends the -1 of Mainz. This gives us a 2.19, but the bet is too hot for me after the numerous goals Mainz have conceded.
The “medium risk” option is much more appealing to me. Here we get over 2.5 goals suggested. With both teams scoring, I’m already expecting a few goals. In the teams’ last three league games, we saw at least three goals
And then there’s the “low risk option”, which actually contradicts the medium risk option. Or rather, the artificial intelligence calculates exactly with three goals. Because the under 3.5 goals were selected here.
According to the AI’s assessment, 3.90 for exactly three goals should therefore also be lucrative odds. Incidentally, this number is also considered the most likely by the bookmakers. It comes in handy for this bet that we receive a 40 euro freebet as a new customer at Merkur Bets.
The new customer bonus also includes a €60 cashback freebet after the first losing accumulator bet with at least three odds, which must be at least 1.50.
Analysis: Mainz vs. Kiel
As already mentioned, Kiel have scored at least the most goals of the last six teams in the Bundesliga. A nice statistic, but the more important one is that they have only managed 17 points. This makes the promoted side the only club to have scored fewer than 20 points.
There were four wins in total, also the weakest figure, just like the whopping 67 goals conceded. We are talking about a 2.48 average. The only time they managed to keep a clean sheet away from home was the 1-0 win against Union Berlin.
However, here’s a hot fact: Kiel have not scored in six matches, but we’re only talking about home games. The North Germans have scored in every game on their travels so far. With an average of almost two goals scored by Kiel, they’ve still only managed one win.
I’m therefore not confident of a points haul, but the goal should be possible again. We get a 1.58 for that, but in view of the shooting gallery statistics, I’ll go for the goal of both teams for the much higher 1.81.
Odds Analysis
But beware! The Mewa Arena is not a coveted venue for the visitors this season, even though Mainz have only won every other home game. However, FSV have only conceded twelve goals, a record shared with FCA.
And the last home defeat was a long time ago, in mid-October against RB Leipzig (0:2). FC Bayern, among others, conceded one of their two Bundesliga defeats at this venue. But after the recent results, I’m optimistic that Kiel can at least score a goal.
In addition to both teams scoring, the 1X could be added for decent odds of two or the home win for a 3.00.
In addition to the goal of both teams, my consideration was to combine the home win with over 1.5 goals, so we are talking about a 1.70.
Mainz vs. Kiel: Mainz recently allowed many top chances
However, the last few games have put me off. Mainz have still conceded the fewest goals after Augsburg in 2025, but the last clean sheet was around a month and a half ago.
Before the 1:3 against Dortmund and a 2:2 against Freiburg, Mainz had won against Leipzig (2:1) and Gladbach (3:1) in that time. But in the two most recent matches alone, Dortmund and Freiburg have scored a total of six expected goals!
And now Kiel, who are highly accurate away from home, travel to Mainz in desperate need of points and unlikely to deviate from their bold style of play. For one thing, a draw is not enough and for another, the defense is too unstable to go for dirty 1:0 or 2:1 victories.
I see the goalless draw against Bremen as a slip-up. Niklas Stark, who got fit in time, was unfavorable for Holstein. Because together with Marco Friedl, he formed a stable chain.
Clear thing in the first leg
I just haven’t seen that in the past Mainz games. Overall, Mainz conceded the seventh most goals, with Kiel the unwanted leaders in this ranking.
However, the hosts are the most efficient team in the top flight with a chance conversion rate of 11.8%. Kiel also have a good rate of 9.8.
The first leg was a one-sided affair. Mainz took the lead in the eleventh minute and made it 3-0 shortly after the second half kicked off. The teams have faced each other three times in soccer history.
Twice before the current season in the DFB Cup. Holstein surprised them with a 2-0 win in the round of 16 in 2011, and FSV also worked up quite a sweat in the 2017 cup tie, which ended with Mainz winning 3-2 in extra time.
My Mainz Kiel tip:
Mainz should win this game, but it’s unlikely to be a walkover on Saturday afternoon after two weaker performances against Freiburg and Dortmund. Kiel are under a lot of pressure and will throw everything into it.
The Storks have always scored away from home, so a 1:1 or 2:2 wouldn’t knock me off my feet.
That’s why I’m not betting on the home win odds, which are too low anyway, and am placing the following bet!
Both teams to score
