Conference League quarter-final second leg, Thursday, 18.04.2024
On Thursday evening, the Dogues and the Villans will face each other in the UEFA Conference League quarter-final second leg.
The first leg was an evenly-matched affair for a long time, but the English side came out on top in the end.
My Lille Aston Villa betting tip reveals whether they will just try to hold on to their narrow lead or whether they will also be active going forward
The Great Danes from northern France were robbed of the reward for their hard work in the first leg. Once again, it has to be said.
Even before the first leg, they were the most inefficient team in the competition with an xG value of 18 and an actual goal yield of 14.
A week ago, they also had more of the game and created the better chances. But in the end they lost 2:1.
Jonathan David’s failure to take his chances this season is emblematic of this. The Dogues striker has missed seven of his ten big chances in the Conference League so far
The Villans have been more clinical. Above all, Ollie Watkins is one of the players currently in gala form.
He has scored in four of his last five games at European level. Only Harry Kane (7) and Phil Foden (5) are the Englishmen who have scored more often than him (4) at this stage.
If he can score a goal on Thursday, as he did in the first leg, the NEObet bookmakers are predicting odds of around 2.70 in the Lille Aston Villa betting tip.
Another important factor is likely to be John McGinn again. The midfielder had a hand in both goals in the first leg (one goal, one assist).
But the men from Birmingham have always struggled on French soil in the past.
In three games so far, they have drawn two and lost one. This will be their first match in France since the 1-1 draw against LOSC in 2002.
However, based on the result of the first leg, a win is not a must. Another reason why the bookies at Bet3000 clearly expect the visitors to advance in the Lille Aston Villa betting tip (1.30).
Which could also have something to do with the fact that the home side have generally not been able to celebrate any success against English teams recently.
They lost at home to Chelsea in the Champions League in both 2019 and 2022. Certainly a better reference than the previous home game in the 2002 Intertoto Cup against the Villans.
The fact that the bookmakers believe so little in a semi-final appearance for the French is also due to their mediocre comeback qualities.
They have never reached the next round in a European competition after losing the first leg. Not even in 2022 against Chelsea (0:2 and 1:2).
In addition, the Villans have rarely given the impression of giving anything away lightly in the Conference League this season. They are unbeaten in eight games (6S, 2U).
I think it’s unlikely that Emery’s team will let the butter be taken off their bread. Nevertheless, they must learn a few lessons from the first leg.
The Dogues will certainly try with all their might to score a goal at the start of the game and set the score at zero. However, this will also leave gaps in the defense.
My Lille Aston Villa betting tip is therefore: Both teams will score
