Bundesliga 29th matchday, Saturday, 12.04.2025 at 3:30 pm
It remains a duel! A year ago today, our Bundesliga tips were already boring, because Leverkusen was storming inexorably towards the title.
Now the Werkself itself is the hunter, six points behind FC Bayern. The home game on Saturday just has to be a safe bet.
In my Leverkusen Union Berlin betting tip, I am dealing with two completely different teams. While Bayer absolutely has to win in order to defend the title, the guests can play freely after their successful last few weeks.
The Iron have said goodbye to the relegation battle, but have annoyed numerous top clubs – including FC Bayern. Accordingly, I assume that they will not be without a chance against Leverkusen either. My betting tip is based precisely on a BTS.
Union have also become really dangerous away from home, as Freiburg and Frankfurt can tell you a thing or two about. So could it be the Berliners who decide the title fight in favor of FC Bayern? After all, FCB are not playing until 6:30 pm on Saturday.
Ultimately, the game seems like one that we have to put in the David versus Goliath drawer, and yet I have my doubts as to whether there will be a clear result here. And by that I don’t mean a victory for the home side in their much-loved injury time!
The betting providers’ forecast?
For our tax-free betting providers, however, one thing is clear: on Saturday, the three points can only go to Leverkusen. The Werkself’s odds of winning are estimated at an average of 1.32, which is of course an immense lead.
On the other side, Union Berlin is offering a tight 10.0. But that probably won’t bother the guests from the capital, because: they have also successfully defied the role of underdog against Freiburg, Bayern and Frankfurt.
A draw would probably not be enough for Leverkusen, as you don’t know how Bayern will play later. With odds of 4.50, the draw is on the cards, but you should know that Bayer has only shared the points at home once since November 1st.
AI prediction Leverkusen vs Union Berlin: That’s what ChatGPT tips
How do you assess this game at ChatGPT? This time, I can’t quite follow the AI’s tips, at least not all of them. In particular, the two riskier of the three bets would not be my favorites.
It is the tip “Leverkusen win with -1 HC.” In the last two months, there has only been one clear home win, and the 3-1 win against Bochum wasn’t THAT big. Besides, Union is in really good form.
The risk is even higher if we bet on a 3-0 result. Do you know how often Leverkusen (aside from the 0-0 games against Leverkusen and Bayern) have kept a clean sheet at home? Once, and that was a very delicate 1-0 win against Mainz!
So the first two bets don’t fill me with much euphoria. The third, Under 3.5 goals, is more my speed. Union only conceded one goal each against the three top teams from Munich, Freiburg and Frankfurt, so I expect a strong defense again on Saturday.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Duselkusen is back! Admittedly, I was also thinking along these lines last weekend. In Heidenheim, the Werkself secured a 1-0 win in injury time, keeping pace with FC Bayern.
First the last-second 4:3 in Stuttgart, then the reasonably commanding 3:1 against Bochum, and now this 1:0, the title hopes are still alive. The reigning German champions have scored seven of their last eight goals in the second half.
The fact that they kept a clean sheet is not a matter of course, because: With seven clean sheets in the entire season, you defend well, but by no means brilliantly. Besides, there have only been three home games without conceding a goal so far.
Speaking of home games, only two results (5:2 against Heidenheim and 5:1 against Freiburg) had more than two goals in favor. Extra time, last seen in Heidenheim, is still a friend of Leverkusen.
Odds Analysis
The fact that Leverkusen has not scored before the break in three of the last four games is very interesting. On the other hand, Berlin have only scored twice before half-time in their last ten games. Therefore, I can well imagine a 0-0 after the first 45 minutes.
At Betano, this bet has odds of 3.20. On top of that, you can get a welcome package here, which also includes a 20-euro free bet. In seven of the last nine games, Union have not conceded a goal in the second half.
If Leverkusen don’t score in that period on Saturday, the odds would climb to 3.10. What about the possibility of an outcome bet? I’m considering a 2-1 (as in the first half of the season) and a 1-1. The odds: 9.25 for victory, 10.25 for a draw.
Leverkusen vs. Union Berlin: Will the second half decide it?
If we take this season and last season together, there have been twelve goals after the regular 90 minutes – opponent Union Berlin only managed two late goals in this period.
Incidentally, Leverkusen have already won three home games 3-1 this year. So if you prefer to bet on this result, you can check out Interwetten’s odds of 11.5.
Leverkusen has won the last two duels against Union Berlin, but both the 1-0 and the 2-1 in the first half of the season were very close.
The only defeat came in 2021, when they lost 1-0 at the Alte Försterei. With five wins and two draws, the home record is anything but bad, whether 5-0, 2-2 or 2-0, there have been a wide range of results.
The Union players may know: Moussa Diaby scored five against us, so it’s a good thing he left for Saudi Arabia not too long ago.
The Iron Club has a trip with no pressure at all on the program. They have a 13-point lead over the relegation spot and a whopping 13 points to the direct relegation spot, so nothing should go wrong.
In the first half of the season, the club picked up two points against Frankfurt, Bayern, Freiburg and Wolfsburg, scoring a measly goal. This was followed by a further six defeats in a row.
Now it has worked much better. 2:1 against SGE, 1:1 against Bayern, 2:1 in Breisgau and 1:0 against Wolfsburg, ten points and only three goals conceded against these strong opponents are a real statement.
Union have now gone four games unbeaten, a run that was only bettered at the start of the season. Five consecutive wins? If they manage that, it would be a new record.
The fact that Berlin only manage an average of 40 percent possession doesn’t bother them, because they are on top of things in the decisive moments. After two consecutive away wins, they can also travel to Leverkusen full of confidence.
On the other hand, I have to mention that the Irons have not scored at all in seven away games. The fact that there have now been two brace games is an absolute first.
My Leverkusen Union Berlin Tip:
Leverkusen against Union Berlin, and at home too? Admittedly, at first glance this sounds like an easy task for the defending champions. The Werkself’s statistics are by no means bad, and yet the last few appearances could have been more convincing.
A cup exit in Bielefeld, a late 1-0 in Heidenheim, and a few wobbles in the 3-1 win against Bochum. The guests from the capital, on the other hand, can play freely, as they have probably already distanced themselves from the relegation zone.
That’s why I can well imagine that Union will give Leverkusen a tough fight – nine points against Freiburg, Frankfurt and Bayern are not easy to come by. So my tip is:
Both teams score!
