Bundesliga 29th matchday, Saturday, 12/04/2025 at 3:30 pm
The three previous Bundesliga seasons have ended with the Foals in a double-digit place in the table. This season, that is likely to change.
Borussia has already exceeded the number of points it scored in the previous season (34) by ten. Last week, a point against St. Pauli (1:1) was enough to match the total from the season before last (43).
After years in the Bundesliga mid-table doldrums, Gladbach’s hunger for European competition has increased dramatically and even the premier class is a realistic prospect with two points behind Mainz.
Freiburg is also eyeing up qualification for the Champions League, or at least a place in a European competition.
However, the visitors have not won in five Bundesliga games. As a rule, the Freiburg defense works quite well, but there is a lack of real goalscorers in attack.
Since the Foals also perform better in their defense than some might expect, I am playing my Gladbach Freiburg tip at Winamax on a quote of 2.18 for “Under 2.5 goals”.
The betting providers’ forecast?
To get started, let’s take a look at the current odds of the best bookmakers for this match. Gladbach is the favorite at home.
The Foals call for a home win of about 2.20 times the profit. Freiburg, on the other hand, easily exceeds the 3.00 mark with an away win.
In terms of the entire second half of the season, the home side are the fourth-best team in the German top flight (20 points) and in my opinion are therefore the favorite to triumph on matchday 29.
AI Prediction Gladbach vs. Freiburg: That’s what ChatGPT tips
It has become part of everyday life to at least ask artificial intelligence for its analysis. As a rule, ChatGPT provides three answers with different degrees of risk.
As the first and thus supposedly safest option, the AI prognosis spits out odds of 1.62 at Bet365 for “Over 2.5 goals”. You can form an opinion on this topic at the end of this article.
As a second variant, the artificial intelligence mentions a bet on “Freiburg scores the first goal” with odds of 2.15 at Betano. So far, both teams have scored the first goal 14 times in their encounters. For me, therefore, there is no clear indicator.
The risk is even higher in the bet on “Half-time/final score: draw/Gladbach”. Bwin has given this offer odds of 5.25. However, SCF have only been tied at half-time in four of their last 11 Bundesliga encounters.
Analysis: Gladbach vs. Freiburg
The expected goals against of the Foals look bad (51.5 xGA) and are only surpassed by one team in the league – VfL Bochum (55.4 xGA).
However, the decisive factor is how this high value was reached and whether the right context might shed a different light on these statistics. Spoiler alert – it does.
According to Wyscout, only FC Augsburg (0.112) allows fewer expected goals per opposing shot on target than Gladbach (0.119). Gerardo Seoane’s team allows their opponents many shots on goal, which is why the overall xG value reads so poorly. But the individual finishing positions are often hardly worth mentioning.
SCF ranks fourth among all Bundesliga clubs in this category (0.121) and confirms my feeling about the Gladbach Freiburg tip.
Odds analysis
Freiburg rarely shows the same energy in away games as in its own stadium, which has a particular impact on the guests’ offensive department.
A little over a third of away appearances (36 percent) have ended without the Breisgauer scoring. Julian Schuster should be particularly concerned about how he will help his team create chances against the Foals.
For me, this presents an opportunity to profitably invest the Winamax Freebet at odds of 3.40 for “Freiburg under 0.5 goals”.
Gladbach vs. Freiburg: What does the striker’s job description say?
Let’s stick to the topic and focus on SCF’s forward line. In the last game against Dortmund (1:4), it was led by Junior Adamu and Lucas Höler.
It was not for the first time that SCF coach Julian Schuster attested both players great running ability and important energy, which is said to have had a positive effect on the rest of his team.
However, the Breisgau attackers have hardly fulfilled their central task of scoring this season. Höler has scored three goals in 26 appearances (17 starts). Adamu has scored two goals in 20 appearances (14 starts) and Gregoritsch has not scored more than two goals in 17 appearances (5 starts).
To further assess the quality of the finish, a look at more in-depth statistics helps. Adamu has an expected goal tally of 4.41.
However, the expected goals on target (xGOT) are lower (3.53 xGOT), which roughly means that his shots are weaker than the initial position promises. This makes it difficult for the guests to deny the foals a victory.
The whole package counts
There is no question that it is an added value for the team when the attacker not only sees his tasks in offense, but also works hard against the ball.
Ideally, a striker combines strong running behavior with composure in front of the opposing goal. Maybe Schuster would also like a finisher like Tim Kleindienst.
The German national player has not only scored more goals than all the SCF strikers mentioned (15) put together, but he also exceeds his expected goals (12.98 xG) by almost five (17.94 xGOT).
In addition, anyone who follows football knows that the DFB striker also works tirelessly defensively.
My Gladbach Freiburg tip:
goals remain in short supply in this comparison. Freiburg has made it through 43 percent of their away appearances without conceding a goal, thus concealing their own lack of scoring away from home in many cases (36 percent).
Furthermore, the guests have not even scored half as many goals away from home (12) as they have in their own stadium (26).
On the other hand, I have already mentioned the advanced statistics for the BMG defense and would like to add that Borussia has only conceded one goal in the two previous Bundesliga matches.
The result will not exceed two goals in the game!
