Bundesliga Austria, Champion’s group, 25th matchday, Sunday, 13/04/2025 at 5:00 PM
My personal experience with Bet-at-home has been so positive that I decided to put my SK Rapid Austria Vienna tip to the test there.
This and other verified bookmakers also regularly offer you increased odds – and with my prediction and a little luck, you could have the opportunity to make a big profit at the bookie on Sunday.
Anyone who follows Austrian football knows that when the big Vienna derby is on the agenda, there is an electric tension in the capital.
And this time there is real fire in the air, because a derby win for Austria Vienna would not only allow them to claim the joint league leadership with Sturm Graz, but would also condemn their local rivals Rapid to a 2025/26 season without European football.
However, the “Veilchen” arrive with a goalless draw against WAC in their luggage, which may seem unspectacular on paper, but in reality is once again an expression of their defensive stability.
And it is precisely this aspect that could become the deciding factor against a Rapid team that is exhausted after last Thursday.
Austria has conceded the fewest Bundesliga goals (19) so far, appears tactically disciplined, robust in duels and acts with a lot of game intelligence – especially in the tight games that you might expect in a derby.
And now for the numbers: The Vienna derby is a real local rivalry in the Turkish style – so two stadiums, two worlds.
And that is impressively reflected in the data: none of the last six competitive duels went to the respective away team.
If you go back even further, there has only been a single away win in the last 14 competitive derbies.
A series that shows just how much of an advantage the stadium has in Vienna – regardless of whether you come from the west or east side of the city.
That’s why you can expect a game in which the form on the day plays a role, but historical patterns should not be ignored.
But it gets even stranger: a total of eight of the last 14 duels ended either 0-0 or 1-1.
So the Vienna derby is a real special case – not a wild offensive spectacle, but a tactical sounding out with little space, few chances and rarely more than two goals.
If you’re clever, you’ll use this information and bet on “Under 2.5 goals & a draw” – currently available for about 2.33 in any good betting app.
For those who like it a little more conservative, my preferred “Double Chance X2” is available at about 1.60.
I think it’s rather unlikely that Rapid, in their current form, will win against a title-hungry Austria team.
Austria Vienna will not hide in the Allianz Stadium. They know that, in the best case, a point is enough to take the sole lead in the table.
At the same time, they have learned from the last few derbies how to neutralize Rapid. A defensively controlled performance should therefore be the goal – and that suits them.
My conclusion: In this derby, there is a lot to be said for a classic Viennese result – few goals, lots of tactics, and maybe a fair draw in the end.
Rapid appear to be physically and playfully weakened, while Austria, despite the shock defeat in the ÖFB Cup against Hartberg, seems to be a bit more stable.
And since the hosts have been treading water for weeks, a bet on “X2” or, alternatively, the combined “draw & under 2.5 goals” seems like a logical way to value.
If you’re feeling brave, you could even go for a straight 1-1 draw – the classic derby result.
My bet: Double chance X2
