La Liga, Saturday, 20.04.2024
Valencia managed to win a league game 1-0 on the last matchday for the second time this season. A clash with Betis Sevilla awaits the bats next weekend and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a repeat performance.
Valencia have already won four encounters at home to the Mestalla by exactly 1-0. In my considerations for the Valencia Betis Sevilla betting tip, this result is high on the list because of the frequency.
However, I do not want to commit myself to an exact result, but instead play “Betis Sevilla Under 0.5 goals” with odds of 2.45 at Oddset.
The 4-4-2 system is almost as old as soccer itself. Nevertheless, it continues to play a key role in top European soccer.
It is a popular system because it allows for simple defensive sequences. Ruben Baraja, coach of the home side, seems to attach great importance to this
His players blindly follow their coach’s preferred style of play and are prepared to show great commitment against the ball. That is paying off for the bats this season. The home side are currently just three points short of a ticket to the European competition.
Last weekend, the eastern Spaniards once again cheated their way to a 1-0 victory, allowing them to strut off the pitch without defeat for the third time in a row.
As has been the case throughout the season, it was the seventh-placed team’s defense that made a three-pointer possible. The last time Valencia went three matchdays in a row without conceding a goal
Highlight videos for the games involving the bats are usually shot in no time at all. None of the hosts’ last five league games have featured “Over 1.5 goals”.
Such encounters suit the minimalists from Valencia and their style of play has prevented defeat in seven of their previous eight games.
That will be one of the many reasons why the Baraja teams are also favored by the sports betting providers in this pairing with odds of up to 2.27.
Winning odds of over 2.20 are usually a sign that the bookmakers do not fully favor the host team.
This is also my impression for this match. The home side’s biggest problem is their own offense, which is extremely weak in the league comparison of expected goals (31.7 xG).
Only two teams (Las Palmas, Cadiz) are ranked worse in this category. Rivals Betis Sevilla are slightly better (35.7 xG), but are also in the bottom half of the table.
In my opinion, instead of predicting a winner for this comparison, you should take a closer look at the number of goals.
After all, your Interwetten betting bonus is still optimally invested in odds of 1.80 for “Both teams score: No” is still optimally invested.
The bats have played two thirds of their home games with a successful bet on “Both teams score: No” and are considered a specialist for such betting options.
At home, Valencia have prevented a goal in 60 percent of their league games played so far. Betis Sevilla also like it when the final whistle sounds before a goal has been conceded (35% white vests).
Visiting coach Manuel Pellegrini is an old hand in European soccer. He has passed on his wealth of experience to his team, who have just one fewer clean sheet than Valencia (12).
However, the expected defense of the hosts is slightly better positioned (37.7 xGA) than the defense of the Verdiblancos (42.6 xGA), which is why I am happy to take the risk and instead of BTS: No, I am betting on “Betis Sevilla will not score a goal” and aiming for the higher odds
I get backing for my Valencia Betis Sevilla betting tip from the strong Valencia defense against opposing teams.
Immediately behind Athletic Bilbao (4.97 xGA), the bats have the second-best expected defense on resting balls (5.36 xGA).
This means that Real Betis are already missing a beloved stylistic device for their own goal success (9 goals after resting balls)
The Verdiblancos are only mediocre from the running game (27.53 xG), which shouldn’t cause any major stomach ache for an in-form defense like Valencia’s.
Whether at home or away, Valencia concentrate on defending the critical spaces around their own sixteen and leave the rest of the pitch to the opposition.
No other team in the Spanish Primera Division currently has a higher number of passes allowed per defensive action than Valencia (14.5 PPDA).
Possession of the ball is treated poorly by the Bats, meaning that Pellegrini’s side are unlikely to be able to use their strength when winning possession at a high level (already 6 goals)
Valencia have won just one of their last four home games, but have gone three of their previous four matches at the Mestalla without conceding a goal.
Betis Sevilla (45 points) are currently just behind Valencia (47 points) in the table and do not have the necessary attacking resources to pose a major threat to the home side’s defense.
My Valencia Betis Sevilla betting tip is: Betis Sevilla will NOT score a goal
