FA Cup Semifinal, Sunday, 27.04.2025, 5:30 p.m.
Manchester City can at least still hope to reach the FA Cup final this season. For Pep Guardiola and his team, it is their last remaining chance to win silverware.
Two years ago, the Skyblues won this prestigious cup competition. Last year, they once again made it to the final, but the Citizens lost the Manchester derby.
In my Nottingham Manchester City tip, there is a possibility that Guardiola’s team will not even make it to the final this year. My recommendation: “Nottingham to win with a handicap of +1” at odds of 2.03 at Bet365.
Admittedly, Nottingham’s sensational season is blowing me away. Coach Nuno Espirito Santos already impressed with some tactical details when he was coach of Wolverhampton.
Now the Portuguese is writing a success story with the Garibaldi Reds, who are not only battling Manchester City for a place in the FA Cup final, but also for one of the coveted Champions League spots.
Nottingham is in the FA Cup semi-finals for the first time since 1991. Getting there took an enormous amount of strength and nerves of steel.
After Nuno Espirito Santos’ team entered the competition with a 2-0 win over Luton Town in the third round, they had to win three more penalty shootouts before reaching the semi-finals.
In the semi-finals, the Tricky Trees are clear underdogs against Manchester City with odds of just under 5.00. The Citizens are being touted as favorites with odds of 1.75.
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Pep Guardiola’s team has recently stabilized again and is unbeaten in seven competitive games in a row.
The Citizens suffered their last defeat in the Premier League. There, the Skyblues lost 0-1 to… drum roll… that’s right, Nottingham.
The Garibaldi Reds’ style of play is particularly uncomfortable for teams like Manchester City. With 15.7 passes per defensive action, the Tricky Trees leave large parts of the field to their opponents, only to counterattack at top speed after winning the ball.
No team in the Premier League covers more meters per second in possession than Nottingham (2.04). This style of play has seen them take the lead in 25 PL games. That’s why this Bwin voucher for odds of 2.70 on “Nottingham to score the first goal” might be worth considering.
The last four direct encounters between Nottingham and Manchester City have ended goalless.
From this perspective, the odds of 1.94 at Winamax for “Both teams to score – No” offer real value that you shouldn’t ignore.
The Citizens have had a relatively easy path to the last four so far. Before needing a 2-1 win over Bournemouth in the quarter-finals, Guardiola’s side saw off Plymouth Argyle (3-1), Leyton Orient (2-1) and Salford (8-0).
Nottingham can be considered a completely different caliber. In the Premier League, the Garibaldi Reds have collected 19 out of a possible 24 points against the following teams: Tottenham, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Liverpool.
In addition, top striker Chris Wood (19 Premier League goals) has finally recovered from his hip injury and scored his first PL goal since February 15 in the last competitive game against Tottenham (2-1 win).
Furthermore, Manchester City (3.8 xGA) and Nottingham (3.7 xGA) have conceded a similar number of expected goals in the current cup competition.
The solid organization of Nottingham’s defense around their own penalty area is likely to cause Manchester City major problems once again.
For this reason, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Citizens manage to score a maximum of one goal in this match. With this Merkur Bets bonus, you can target the odds of 1.92 for “Manchester City under 1.5 goals.”
The Garibaldi Reds’ preferred style of play fits like a glove and attacks the weaknesses in the Citizens’ game.
I expect a self-sacrificing Nottingham team that is aware of its chance and won’t let its nerves get the better of it. My Nottingham Manchester City tip is:
Nottingham to win with a handicap of +1
