Serie A, Friday, 02.05.2025 at 20:45
I just can’t shake the feeling that even the best bookmakers have miscalculated their Turin FC Venezia odds.
A glance at my Turin FC Venezia tip will quickly show you why I would always prefer a “Double Chance X2” bet combined with the additional option “Under 2.5 goals” to a classic home or away win bet.
Venice subsequently squandered one of their last remaining opportunities to secure some important points in the battle for survival with a 0-2 defeat.
However, the fact that the promoted team has lost only two of its last nine Serie A games – and that was against Champions League participants such as Milan and Bologna (0-2) – can be interpreted as a good omen, especially with the upcoming duel with FC Turin in mind.
The “Arancioneroverdi” currently seem to be losing only to the absolute top teams – and to be honest, I wouldn’t necessarily count their upcoming opponent among them.
Torino are returning home on the back of a 0-2 defeat to Napoli and seem to be primarily focused on getting through the season without any major incidents.
A glance at the table shows you why: the Granata are stuck in no man’s land in Serie A with 43 points. In 10th place, they are eleven points behind 9th and a whopping 18 points ahead of the relegation zone.
For FC Venice, on the other hand, it’s a matter of survival – and they would do well to continue throwing everything into the mix, because the upcoming matchday could be the decisive turning point.
Lecce currently holds the first non-relegation spot, but has not won a game in months.
If the promoted team remains stable on Friday, they could suddenly overtake the southern Italians with three points and at the same time prove that the bookmakers’ odds for Torino FC Venice were wrong after all.
In my opinion, the bookies did not take the starting positions of both teams in the table sufficiently into account.
I have a good feeling that Venice won’t come away empty-handed on Friday. However, even at odds of around 3.95, I can’t in good conscience back an away win.
The newly promoted side is the only club in the entire league still waiting for its first Serie A away win.
Still, they have eight draws and nine defeats on the road, which is almost a balanced record. So they are not necessarily the whipping boys of the league.
Particularly interesting: Each of Venezia’s last four away games has ended in a draw – from a 0-0 against Atalanta to a 1-1 against Como and Lecce to a thrilling 2-2 against Empoli, every common draw has been on the cards.
The odds for a draw after 90 minutes – currently around 3.10 – therefore seem much more attractive than those for an away win in Turin, which seems almost utopian statistically.
What you can almost bet your life on: This game has all the makings of a match that will end with fewer than three goals. Even the best bookmakers with PayPal seem to agree.
A quick glance at the figures is enough to understand this point of view: none of Torino’s last six Serie A games and only one of Venezia’s last eleven league games have seen more than two goals scored.
It’s just a shame that the 2.5-goal mark currently only promises average odds of around 1.58 – which I can only rate as “average” at best.
Interestingly, however, the first leg was surprisingly uneventful: Torino secured a narrow 1-0 win at the newly promoted side in August.
However, as the starting position is completely different this time and there is nothing at stake for the “Toro,” I ultimately decide on the combination bet “Double Chance X2 & Under 2.5 Goals.”
Conclusion: Relegation candidates Parma and Venezia have a lot in common – both were promoted together and are currently difficult to beat in the final stages of the season.
The “Arancioneroverdi” must keep pace and throw everything into the mix against a possibly complacent Torino FC, even if their offensive efforts continue to leave something to be desired.
The result on Friday could be a scrappy game with a lot of midfield skirmishes, which could end after 90 boring minutes with a 0-0, 1-1 or even a narrow 1-0 win for the visitors.
My Torino FC Venezia tip: Double chance X2 & Under 2.5 goals!
