La Liga, 35th matchday on Saturday, 10.05.2025 at 21:00
This doesn’t look good at all for San Sebastian. Only eleventh place, four games without a win and qualification for next season’s international competition is in jeopardy. And now it’s off to the Estadio Metropolitano!
In my Atletico Madrid Real Sociedad betting tip, I opt for a goal for the visitors, who desperately need points in the closing stages. The odds are very high, especially when I add the “Under 4.5 goals” at Bet-at-home. Despite the Colchoneros’ fabulous home record, the selection offers value in my eyes!
Atletico are a difficult opponent to play against, especially at home. The Rojiblancos have lost just one game in the league, a feat only achieved by Bilbao. So a case for “double chance 1X”? Definitely not.
Firstly, the odds are ridiculous at 1.13 and secondly, Atletico themselves are not in great form at the moment, with just one win from their last three appearances and the season already over with third place virtually secured.
I find the “Double Chance X2” much more attractive at 2.25. It is so high due to the clear underdog role of the visitors (5.50). Madrid have odds of 1.63 to win, while the bookmakers have given the draw 3.90.
A distribution that I can understand. After all, only three teams have scored fewer goals than Sociedad. Spanish international and European champion Mikel Oyarzabal and Co. have scored a meagre 32 goals
The Europa League round of 16 finalists have failed to score in three of their last four games, with only the turbulent 2-2 draw against Villarreal this season. Funnily enough, Oyarzabal scored from the spot.
Funnily enough, because I’ve already written predictions for several Sociedad matches and usually recommended odds that included a goal from the team. This was the third time that a penalty goal from the number ten has helped us.
Accordingly, I’ve now had a look around to see what we’ll get for a goal from the striker, which turns out to be quite attractive at 4.50.
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The odds are definitely an eye-catcher, simply due to the fact that Oyarzabal has scored in six of his club’s last seven games. He is also a reliable man from the spot, having scored 39 out of 44 penalties.
Nevertheless, I prefer to hedge my bets in my final odds and choose the visitors’ easy goal, which is a decent 1.63. The decisive factor for me was Oyarzabal’s record against Atletico. In 13 duels, he has scored just one goal against the Colchoneros.
Diego Simeone knows how to set up his team in defense to get him under control. After being knocked out of the cup semi-final against Barca, they won three games against Sevilla (2:1), Valladolid (4:2) and Rayo Vallecano (3:0).
However, there was also a 0:1 against Las Palmas and a 0:0 against Alaves recently.
I don’t expect the big spectacle in this match late on Saturday evening. That’s why I’m adding an opposing under-odds to the visitors’ goal to push the odds up. With the “Under 4.5” line as a supplement, we get a strong 1.95.
If you dare to go for “Under 3.5 goals”, you can look forward to 2.45 with the Sociedad goal in the package. Together, the teams have a goals against average of just 0.93.
Or you can mix the goal of both teams with “Under 4.5 goals”, which also results in 2.45 odds. Sociedad are still without Igor Zubeldia in central defense, a serious absence in the middle.
Eight consecutive matches between Atletico and Sociedad have seen a maximum of three goals, and anyone looking for the last game with more than 4.5 goals will have to go back to 2010 in the Spanish soccer history book.
Back then, we saw a 4:2 win for Atletico. In the 31 games that followed, the maximum number of goals scored was four.
And 1998 was the last match in which this mark was exceeded at the Wanda Metropolitano.
Back to the current season: The teams drew 1-1 in the first leg, San Sebastian were the dominant team, trailing for a long time thanks to Julian Alvarez’s goal in the first minute before finally equalizing in the 84th minute.
The last Sociedad win in La Liga was a few years ago, in 2019, and we last saw them win away from home in 2013.
Conclusion: Traditionally, there aren’t many goals scored between the two teams. However, I definitely have one on the cards on Saturday for the visitors, who are still in contention for a Europa League place.
Atletico are very strong at home but have only won one of their last three matches and Sociedad have scored in five of their last games away from home, with Oyarzabal scoring from the spot in some of my recent Sociedad tips.
A goalscorer bet at a whopping 4.50 on the currently prolific captain is a great alternative for those who like slightly higher odds. On the other hand, I’m going for my final prediction at Bet-at-home. You can also top up your balance there conveniently via PayPal.
Real Sociedad will score at least one goal
