La Liga, Matchday 37 on Sunday, 18.05.2025 at 19:00
It’s decided: Real Madrid will end the 2024/25 season without a title. The Royals have already secured second place, but that is obviously not enough given their own expectations.
On Sunday, Real Madrid will travel to Andalusia. From a purely sporting point of view, the game is no longer of great significance. Accordingly, in my current Sevilla vs. Real Madrid prediction, I will tell you why I think a spectacle is unlikely and why I am going for a bet on “under 3.5 goals.”
It’s the first season with Kylian Mbappe, whom Real Madrid wanted so badly – and now, of all times, the team is facing a season without a title. Although they have won eight of their last ten games, their rivals have simply slipped up a few times less.
At the same time, we can see that the victories Real has achieved in recent weeks, or rather months, have been more than fortunate – and I’m not just referring to the recent 2-1 win against Mallorca, which came in the last second of stoppage time.
Three 2-1 wins, three 1-0 wins, plus a double 3-2? It’s always a one-goal lead. Accordingly, you can of course bet on Real winning on Sunday, but that it will be another narrow victory.
You’ll find what you’re looking for at Bet365, where the bookie is offering odds of 4.00. I would actually steer clear of a handicap bet, as this tip has only come in once since the end of January – and that was a very narrow 2-0 win against Girona.
Looking purely at away games, the last clear wins were even further back, with only a 3-0 win at bottom-of-the-table Valladolid since the beginning of December.
Kylian Mbappe, who has scored six times in the last three games, is of course having a strong debut season in Spain with 28 league goals. He scored three times in the most recent away game – and yet his team still lost the Clasico 3-4.
There have been nine away wins in total, giving them a success rate of exactly 50 percent. By comparison, 15 of 18 matches at home have ended in victory. Of course, Real are also struggling with injuries.
Lucas Vazquez, Brahim Diaz, Vinicius Junior, David Alaba, Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rüdiger, Eduardo Camavinga, Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal are all missing, which is not easy to compensate for.
So it’s very fortunate that Sevilla FC is one of their favorite opponents. With ten wins and two draws, their recent record is very successful. But seven of those wins were extremely narrow.
1:1, 2:1, 3:2, 1:0, 1:0? I could go on forever. Until it became clear that Real haven’t won by more than one goal since 2011.
But that’s no reason for our bookmakers to offer surprising odds. The Royals are clear favorites, with odds averaging 1.70 to 4.30. Knowing full well that there’s not much at stake for Sevilla FC.
The season will end in the lower mid-table, and the Andalusians may even find themselves in the last place above the relegation zone. After eight winless games in a row, they recently secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory against relegated Las Palmas.
And yet: three wins from the last 16 games are obviously far too few. The fact that ten of the 15 defeats this season have been very narrow does not help Sevilla in retrospect.
Their home stadium isn’t really helping either, with six wins, six draws, and six losses. They’ve scored 17 goals, which is less than one per game on average.
The 1-0 win against Las Palmas was their first home win since mid-December. And that despite the fact that the team only went into the break trailing three times. Eleven times, the scoreboard showed a draw after the first 45 minutes.
If that’s also the case this Sunday, you can secure odds of 2.55 at Merkur Bets. The Merkur Bets bonus also secures you a free bet of up to $40.
The runners-up are putting on a show – and on Sunday they face an opponent who also has nothing to play for. Will that make for a wild game or one in which no one really feels like playing?
The Royals are ending the season without a title, which is really bothering the superstars. Speaking of superstars, a whole host of stars are injured, and Real are struggling defensively in particular.
Accordingly, I don’t think the visitors will come away with a clear victory. Instead, I imagine a not too offensive affair, which gets the following tip:
There won’t be more than 3.5 goals!
