Bundesliga promotion prediction: Who will be relegated in 2026?
The battle for a Bundesliga spot could be relentless in this second division season. The Bundesliga promotion predictions from experts and bookmakers include 12 (!) teams that are believed to have a chance of finishing in the top three!
Here we provide a compact overview of the Bundesliga promotion candidates for 2026 – who could make it into the top flight of German soccer?
Bundesliga promotion predictions for Kiel & Bochum
The two relegated teams, Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum, are included in every Bundesliga promotion prediction.
If it’s all about the value of the squad, Kiel are the big favorites for promotion – and actually even for the championship title.
Measured by the market value of their squad (around €45 million), the Storks are by far the most expensive and valuable team in the 2025/26 second division season.
Despite the high-profile departures of Nicolai Remberg, Timo Becker, and Lewis Holtby, the team has changed only minimally compared to last season, and coach Marcel Rapp is still on board.
With a well-rehearsed team that has been strengthened in several positions, the North Germans are approaching their “mission to get back up” with optimism.
The same applies to VfL Bochum. There have been no major changes at the Revierklub since their relegation. However, Kevin Vogt has arrived as the new defensive boss. And here, too, the coach has stayed put. With Dieter Hecking at the helm, VfL wants to return to the Bundesliga.
Bochum is number 3 in the market value table of the 2nd Bundesliga, which inevitably puts them among the favorites for promotion.
What could speak against Kiel and Bochum in the Bundesliga promotion forecast: The recent past has shown time and again that one – or even both – of the relegated teams do not manage to return to the Bundesliga immediately.
Take SV Darmstadt in the previous season after their relegation in 2024, for example. The 2023 relegated teams – Hertha and Schalke – are still in the second division. The same goes for 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 (who came down in 2019) as well as SC Paderborn and Fortuna Düsseldorf, who joined them in 2020.
Promotion prediction: Will Elversberg make it this time?
SV Elversberg almost didn’t make it into this second division season. The “village club” finished last season in third place and had the chance to secure the last Bundesliga ticket in the relegation play-offs. However, this was awarded to 1. FC Heidenheim.
As the “best of the rest” from last season, Elversberg should be on the list of promotion candidates – or not?
The statistics certainly don’t favor Elversberg in the Bundesliga promotion forecast.
Since the 2010/11 season (!), no team that has failed in the relegation play-offs has managed to gain promotion to the Bundesliga in the following season. The last team to do so was FC Augsburg in 2011.
In the recent past, 1. FC Heidenheim, Holstein Kiel, Hamburger SV twice, and Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2024, among others, missed out on promotion to the Bundesliga after losing the relegation play-offs in the following season.
Another factor working against Elversberg’s promotion is the coach and the squad.
On the one hand, successful coach Horst Steffen has left (to Werder Bremen), and on the other hand, the team is only ranked 14th (!) in the market value ranking of second division clubs. This means that the team would have to have another outstanding season like the last one.
Bundesliga promotion prediction for Hertha & Schalke
Last season, Hertha BSC and Schalke 04 finished only 11th and 14th.
Ahead of this season, however, the two biggest names in the Bundesliga promotion predictions are doing quite well. This is reflected in the betting odds offered by sports betting providers as well as in many expert assessments.
Hertha BSC and Schalke have the quality of their squads going for them – at least on paper. Based on the market value of their teams, the Berliners and the miners are the second and fourth best teams in this second division season.
After two years in which Schalke even faced relegation to the third division, there is something of a spirit of optimism with new coach Miron Muslic.
In Berlin, too, people want to finally forget the last two mixed years. After a pretty good second half of last season under Stefan Leitl, expectations are now much higher in the capital.
The advantage of the two “second division giants”: There is no “super team” this season, but rather many evenly matched teams in the race for promotion. On the other hand, this also makes it very difficult for this duo.
Will Hannover 96 make a comeback?
Hannover 96, which finished only ninth in the previous season and was far from the promotion zone, is included in every Bundesliga promotion prediction before the start of the season this time around.
Christian Titz, the successful coach from Magdeburg, has been brought in and the club has invested heavily in the team. As a result, the 96ers are even the bookmakers’ top favorites in the promotion betting odds before the start of the season!
Can the Lower Saxony club live up to the hype?
That depends on how quickly the newly formed team can and will implement the new coach’s ideas. And also how calm things remain around the “Reds.”
Bundesliga promotion prediction: FCK’s chances
What are 1. FC Kaiserslautern’s chances of returning to the Bundesliga? The team finished seventh last season, and the bookmakers’ predictions for Bundesliga promotion do not really see the “Red Devils” among the favorites.
Although striker Ragnar Ache had to be let go (1. FC Köln), Ivan Prtajin from Union Berlin and Mahir Emreli (Nürnberg) have joined the team. Semih Sahin was brought in from Elversberg to play in central midfield.
And coach Torsten Lieberknecht knows how to get promoted to the Bundesliga. With the power of Betzenberg behind them, Lautern could be in contention for promotion. Even if the squad doesn’t seem to be cut out for it in terms of market value.
Ranked 11th in the second division market value ranking, FCK is only an outsider in the Bundesliga promotion forecast.
Bundesliga promotion forecast: Who still has a chance?
Who could still be in the running for Bundesliga tickets according to the Bundesliga promotion forecast?
If you take the market value of the teams as a reference, Fortuna Düsseldorf will be among the promotion contenders. Last season, the Rhinelanders finished sixth – F95 is also sixth in the market value ranking of the second division teams.
SC Paderborn finished fourth last season, but SCP had to let successful coach Lukas Kwasniok go. Can Paderborn still compete in the promotion race?
This question will also be asked at Karlsruher SC and 1. FC Nürnberg, who are in the chasing pack before the start of the season. 1. FC Magdeburg, who finished fifth last season, are also considered outsiders before the start of the season.
