Swiss Super League, Matchday 1, Sunday, 27.07.2025, 16:00
Season opener – always immensely important for a newly promoted team. FC Thun is returning to the Super League and naturally does not want to start with an ugly defeat. Is it really such an advantage that the new season starts away from home?
That is exactly the question I want to get to the bottom of in my Lugano vs. Thun prediction. The home team did not exactly impress me in their first minutes of the 2025/26 season. As a result, I am being extremely cautious here with a double chance 1X bet on under 3.5 goals.
Here to stay – that is FC Thun’s motto going into the new season. After returning to the Super League, everyone knows that a relegation battle is expected.
The team won the Swiss second division in 2024/25 in convincing fashion, despite failing to win 15 of their 36 games. Nevertheless, they recorded the best statistics in both attack and defense.
The Super League is obviously a different ball game. How will FC Thun fare? The one test match I can report on was a wild ride.
They lost 3-4 to Kriens, which didn’t show the defense in a good light. Coach Mauro Lustrinelli has been on the sidelines since 2022, so he knows his team inside out and can work on their weaknesses.
However, the departure of Declan Frith is likely to hurt Thun, as he moved to Peterborough in the UK for a transfer fee of one million euros. Miguel Castroman and Helios Sessolo also joined new clubs.
Thun last played in the top flight of Swiss soccer in the 2019/20 season, so you can imagine that there haven’t been too many matches against Lugano in the recent past.
The last match between the two sides was in the cup in February 2022. The result was a wild 4-3 win for Lugano. Interesting fact: In league play, Thun has not finished six of the last seven direct encounters without earning a point.
A nice fact, but the fans of the promoted team know that they have fought in vain for years to return to the Super League. So it’s no surprise that Thun will be the underdog on Sunday.
The average odds for the visitors at our bookmakers are 4.75 to 1.63, which is a fairly classic prediction.
What could play into FC Thun’s hands is that their opponents had to fight hard in international competition just a few days ago and left a lot of energy on the pitch.
FC Lugano finished last season in fifth place, which was neither particularly happy nor really dissatisfying. Last Thursday, they kicked off the second round of the Europa League qualifiers.
The team couldn’t get past a tired 0-0 draw against Cluj. Despite 78 percent possession, they only managed a single shot on target, so there was a lot of wasted time.
The three friendly matches I can now briefly present to you looked much more offensive. 2-1 against Rapperswil-Jona, 4-2 against Paradiso and 2-0 against Pro Vercelli – of course, I can’t compare these three opponents with Cluj (or Thun).
18 goals away, 30 at home? I can see this clear difference when I look at last season’s offensive statistics. The 0-0 home draw against Cluj certainly doesn’t fit in with that!
With Kevin Behrens, who was recently dropped by Wolfsburg, Lugano has signed a very experienced striker who should help in attack. The club is hoping for a similar good start to the 2024/25 season, when it got off to a flying start with four wins from its first five games.
How will the returnee from Thun fare in this difficult round? It’s never easy for a newly promoted team to hold its own against the competition. With FC Lugano, you don’t get a brutally easy opponent (if there is such a thing) or an absolute powerhouse.
The home team was in Europa League qualifying action during the week, putting in a lackluster performance in a 0-0 draw against Cluj. Possession alone was not enough to score a goal.
I am therefore approaching this bet with caution, because newly promoted teams often play rebelliously at the start of a new season. I have therefore decided to recommend the following tip:
Lugano will score a maximum of three goals!
