Union Berlin – Stuttgart Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 1 on Saturday, 08/23/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
It’s that time of year again: the Bundesliga is back! We’re kicking off the 2025/26 season and expecting goals, excitement, and pure football drama. In my Union Berlin vs. Stuttgart prediction, the key question is: Can the Swabians bounce back after a weak preseason and get back into contention?
I’m expecting a high-scoring encounter against Union Berlin. It’s no coincidence that I’ve chosen “Over 2.5 goals” at Interwetten at odds of around 1.60.
This has mainly to do with Stuttgart’s rather turbulent recent results. In fact, at least three goals have been scored in seven of VfB’s last eight games.
My Union Berlin Stuttgart prediction: Over 2.5 goals
Here are the reasons for my prediction:
- The bet would have been successful in 7 of Stuttgart’s last 8 games.
- In VfB’s games last season, an average of just under 3.5 goals were scored.
- Union Berlin recently showed their attacking prowess in a 5-0 cup win over Gütersloh.
Furthermore, in my Union Berlin vs. Stuttgart prediction, I don’t expect the Berliners to prove themselves to be particularly solid. If we disregard the 5-0 cup win against lower-league FC Gütersloh, Union are not in a particularly stable phase.
In fact, they have not won any of their previous five friendly matches.
And so my first alternative tip pretty much writes itself. The combination of “Double Chance X2 & Over 1.5 Goals” comes in at great odds of around 1.60 and offers strong value given the starting position.
Union Berlin – Stuttgart Prediction & Bets
In recent weeks, it has been difficult to sense that Stuttgart are able to concentrate on the sporting tasks ahead. The transfer drama surrounding Nick Woltemade has dominated the headlines.
Can the striker provide a sporting response with goals against Union? A Woltemade goal is priced at around 2.32 by sports betting providers. This is definitely worth considering.
And while we’re at it, another player bet catches the eye. In Deniz Undav, Stuttgart has another accurate striker. The Union Berlin Stuttgart odds for an Undav goal are in a similar range.
As another betting alternative, I would suggest the classic “both teams to score.” The odds are around 1.55 and are well-founded. In 5 of Stuttgart’s last 7 games, this bet would have been successful.
What you need to consider when betting on Union Berlin vs. Stuttgart
- Union Berlin had the lowest average possession in the Bundesliga last season at 40.44%. They also had the second fewest shots on goal in their games, averaging 24.5 shots per game.
- In VfB Stuttgart’s games last season, an average of 3.44 goals were scored per game – the fourth highest in the Bundesliga.
- The “Over 2.5 goals” bet has been successful in Stuttgart’s last 10 Bundesliga games, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.
- In 2025, Angelo Stiller was among the top 1% of midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues in terms of progressive passes.
Union Berlin – Stuttgart: AI tip & odds analysis
Sebastian Hoeneß’s team could be particularly interesting to watch at the start of the Bundesliga season – after an ambitious transfer window and triumph in the DFB Cup.
Union Berlin is an outlier in a league where many goals are expected on every matchday. No team conceded fewer goals than Union (38) in the 2024/25 season. In a league dominated by Bayern Munich, that is remarkable – because Bayern also conceded exactly 38 goals last season.
The Berliners’ involvement explains why the bookmakers have set the goal line at over/under 2.50. Opponents Stuttgart are regularly involved in even higher-scoring games.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Union Berlin win |
Draw |
Stuttgart win |
| 30.7% |
23.4% |
45.9% |
In the 2024/25 season, 71% of games involving Stuttgart ended with over 2.5 goals. Only Bayern Munich and Holstein Kiel recorded more games with three or more goals.
However, Union Berlin could be one reason why betting fans are staying away from the goal market. In only eight of their 17 home games last season, “Over 2.5 goals” was a successful bet.
The best odds for Union Berlin vs. Stuttgart
One thing is clear: VfB are the favorites going into the game. However, the classic 1×2 odds make it clear that a Swabian victory is by no means a foregone conclusion. The odds for an away win are climbing noticeably above the 2.00 mark – even without the NEO.bet boost.
However, betting on a home win must be considered a risky bet. The odds of around 3.25 don’t lie and tell the story that Union only won 5 of 17 home games last season.
Of course, the two matches from last season should not be forgotten. In the first half of the season, VfB won narrowly at home 3-2. In the second half, the two teams engaged in a bizarre 4-4 battle.
Either way, both games were close. So it’s no surprise that the odds for a draw are relatively low at around 3.50. And a nice 2-2 draw between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart to kick off the Bundesliga season would be a great result.
Union Berlin vs Stuttgart Match Analysis:
Stuttgart had a disappointing second half of the season, finishing in ninth place.
This season, the Swabians are aiming for a place in European competition – a good start against Union Berlin is crucial.
Sebastian Hoeneß’s style of play has earned him much praise. His teams often build from the back, but are also willing to play direct balls into the front line when space is available.
VfB Stuttgart also works extremely hard against the ball. Their passes per defensive action (PPDA) last season were the fourth lowest in the Bundesliga. This approach enabled them to create many scoring chances – an important factor in their DFB Cup victory last season.
Union Berlin is a completely different team. Their pressing is among the least aggressive in the Bundesliga. Their average possession last season was just 40.44% – the lowest in the league.
This passive approach to defending means that Union has to defend for long periods of the game. Despite a change of coach in December, the tactical approach has remained the same. The best chance to threaten Stuttgart therefore lies in counterattacks.
The Iron Men exceeded their xG (expected goals) value by 7.01 last season. Steffen Baumgart will once again have to rely on his offense’s clinical finishing if Union is to cause an upset in the league opener.
Union Berlin form check
Union Berlin played in the Champions League in the 2023/24 season, but narrowly escaped relegation from the Bundesliga and continued to struggle last season.
The club appointed Steffen Baumgart as coach in the middle of last season. He eventually managed to improve the team’s form. Union lost only one of their last ten Bundesliga games – that was enough to finish the season eleven points clear of the relegation play-off spot.
Despite the positive development at the end of the season, Union’s form still leaves much to be desired. In the build-up phases (outside the final third), only 74.8% of passes were completed – the lowest figure in the entire Bundesliga. As a result, they averaged only 1.10 xG per game.
Union’s preseason preparations were also less than encouraging. They lost their last four friendly matches before recording a 5-0 victory over lower-league opposition in the DFB-Pokal last weekend.
Baumgart is likely to stick with a variation of his five-man defense here, but he needs brave players – especially against a team like VfB Stuttgart, which is capable of controlling the ball for long periods.
Stuttgart form check
VfB Stuttgart narrowly lost 2-1 to Bayern Munich in the Super Cup last weekend. However, the strong performance – following three wins in four friendly matches – should give the team confidence for the start of the Bundesliga season.
Sebastian Hoeneß’s team had 14 shots on goal and created three big chances against the reigning German champions. They also managed to maintain 47% possession against a Bayern team that normally dominates the game.
The Swabians will have significantly more possession in this game, which should particularly suit their dynamic midfielders. Angelo Stiller, who has averaged 9.93 progressive passes per 90 minutes over the past twelve months, will have plenty of opportunities to set up the attacking players with his passing.
Jamie Leweling should benefit particularly from this creativity. He was in strong form in the Super Cup, had three shots on goal and scored a late goal for VfB that shook Bayern once again.
Coach Hoeneß knows that his key players will have to deliver if VfB wants to compete in the top third of the table again, as it did in the 2023/24 season. The performances in preseason suggest that this is entirely possible.
