Bulgaria – Spain Tip World Cup Qualification, Matchday 5 on Thursday, 04.09.25 at 8:45 p.m.
In Group E of the World Cup qualifiers, there is only one favorite for first place in the table – and that is Spain. The Iberians do not want to show any weakness on their way to the 2026 World Cup finals and are looking to secure a clear victory against Bulgaria in the opening game of the four-team group.
And in my Bulgaria vs. Spain prediction, I have no doubts about the Iberians. The bet “Spain to win with Asian handicap -2.0, -2.5” becomes even more interesting when you look at the Bulgarians’ recent results.
In fact, Bulgaria has lost three of its last four games. In a test match against Greece, they were also soundly defeated 0-4. As an alternative tip, you could also consider betting on “Spain to win to nil.” The odds are around 1.45 and offer a safety-first approach.
My Bulgaria vs. Spain tip: ESP win Asian HC -2.0, -2.5
These are the arguments for my tip:
- Bulgaria lost 4-0 to Greece in June.
- The Bulgarians are struggling with form problems – they have won only one of their last eight games.
- Spain has scored a total of 14 goals in its last 5 games.
Bulgaria vs. Spain AI predictions:
No matter how you look at it, Spain is the clear favorite going into this match. Accordingly, our in-house AI model, with its Bulgaria vs. Spain AI prediction, is primarily targeting bets that favor a clear victory for the Iberians.
If you think the 2010 World Cup winners will be in full flow against Bulgaria in the first half, the tip “1st half: Spain to win with Asian handicap -1.0” is a good bet. I consider the odds of around 1.85 to be extremely generous.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Bulgaria win |
Draw |
Spain to win |
| 3% |
12% |
85% |
The second AI selection is much riskier. The classic “both teams to score” bet offers great odds of around 3.00 at VBET Germany, but it’s still not my first choice. After all, Bulgaria has scored at least one goal in five of its last six games.
The AI generally expects a high-scoring match. Another alternative tip is the “Over 3.5 goals” bet. The odds are around 2.40. The statistical background: this bet would have been successful in Spain’s last five games.
What you need to know about Bulgaria vs. Spain betting
- Bulgaria has not won in five games and has conceded a total of 16 goals in its last seven games, including friendlies.
- Spain is unbeaten in its last 20 games and has scored at least two goals in each of its last seven games.
- Of Spain’s last ten games in which the Iberians were rated between 1.05 and 1.20 (equivalent to -2000 to -500) in the 1X2 market, they have won all ten, scoring an average of 4.2 goals and conceding only 0.5 goals.
- These two teams have only met five times so far, with La Roja winning four of those encounters. In those head-to-head matches, Spain scored a total of 23 goals and conceded only two.
- With 23 progressive runs with the ball, Lamine Yamal is second only to Vinícius Júnior (29) in Europe’s top five leagues.
