Bayern – HSV Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 3 on Saturday, 09/13/2025 at 6:30 p.m.
How long have the Hanseatic fans been waiting for this moment – finally, it’s here! They can once again compete with the best that German soccer has to offer, and you can also be there live with the first-class Interwetten bonus.
However, it will be difficult for Hamburg to divert the record champions, who are aiming to defend their title, from their successful course. There is little to suggest that there will be a sensation at the Allianz Arena.
Consequently, I didn’t dare to experiment too much with my Bayern HSV tip. Especially since the northerners have only won one of their last 16 Bundesliga games on a Saturday evening.
HSV is clearly FC Bayern’s second favorite opponent – and there are reasons for that. Only against VfB Stuttgart have the Munich team celebrated more victories (71) in the Bundesliga than against Hamburg (65).
In addition, no other club in Bundesliga history has scored as many goals against one opponent as FCB has against HSV (247 goals).
Particularly impressive: the record champions won their last nine home games against the northerners with a total score of 51:3.
Bayern – HSV Prediction & Bets
Meanwhile, you can put two hand-picked Bayern HSV tips to the test on the best sports betting apps, which I have selected for you.
Michael Olise scores at Bayern HSV Betting odds of around 1.90 are particularly appealing to me! After all, the offensive all-rounder has scored in each of his last six Bundesliga appearances for the record champions!
Incidentally, FC Bayern Munich had the most shots on goal (20) in the first two matchdays of this Bundesliga season and also collected the highest expected goal value (6.0). So it looks like it’s going to be a thrashing for the Hanseatic team.
Consequently, I have also shortlisted a Bayern win with HC -3 at odds of around 2.30.
I found these odds at Betano, where you can not only get an additional $20 freebet on top of the new customer bonus, but you also have the chance to win a freebet of up to $5,000 and tickets for the Bayern vs. Dortmund clash with the Betano Master Tip.
In fact, the hosts should have everything wrapped up before halftime this coming Saturday.
What you need to know about Bayern vs. HSV betting
- Bayern scored 5.88 xG in the first two Bundesliga matchdays, the highest in the league.
- Merlin Polzin’s team only managed five shots and an xG of 0.35 in the Hamburg derby – both games this season ended goalless.
- The teams last met in the league in 2018; the visitors have not won a game against Bayern since 2009 (16 defeats in 19 games).
- Kompanys team had Europe’s most dangerous attack in the top five leagues last season with 2.91 goals per game.
Bayern – HSV: AI tip & odds analysis
Our Bayern HSV AI prediction senses a veritable flood of goals. A Bayern win & over 5.5 goals at odds of around 3.25 convinces me as a betting tip – statistically, there is little to argue with anyway.
In three of their last four Bundesliga home games against the Hanseatic team, the Munich offense broke this mark single-handedly with scores of 6-0, 8-0, 5-0, and 8-0.
Meanwhile, Luis Diaz scoring promises to double your stake and is also a very hot tip. After all, the new signing could score in his third Bundesliga appearance in a row.
Both teams to score – No! I wouldn’t necessarily go for Bayern HSV odds of 1.62 on average. If they take a big lead, the record champions could take their foot off the gas in the second half.
The best odds for Bayern vs. HSV
Bayern against HSV – on paper, it’s a clear-cut affair, but it’s precisely these kinds of games that appeal to all bettors who like to bet on outsiders.
Our bookies offer the best odds: up to 1.10 for a Bayern win, 15.0 for a draw, and a whopping 30.00 if Hamburg actually cause an upset.
Sure, the favorites are clear, but that’s exactly what makes it so exciting: those who dare to bet on the underdog could really cash in here.
These figures invite you to get creative with your betting slip and perhaps bet on the unlikely. A match that will provide thrills not only on the pitch but also on the betting slip.
Bayern vs. HSV Match analysis:
Everything points to a one-sided game at the Allianz Arena. Bayern are extremely dominant at home and are facing a team that is clearly still struggling to adapt to the higher quality of their opponents.
Vincent Kompany is relying on aggressive pressing. Last season, his team allowed the fewest passes per defensive action (PPDA) in the Bundesliga (8.99), and currently that figure is even lower at 8.1.
Thanks to their high defensive line and early attacking when building up play, Bayern often win the ball back in the forward areas. HSV lack the quality to bypass this pressing cleanly, so long balls are the logical consequence – Bayern clearly control the game as a result.
In addition, Bayern are brimming with quality in attack. With an xG of 5.88 from their first two Bundesliga games, they have the highest value in the league.
With Kompany’s team in top form against a side that hardly creates any chances, we sports betting fans are likely to see a classic David vs. Goliath game!
Bayern form check
As expected, Bayern has had a perfect start to the season: two Bundesliga wins and advancing in the DFB Cup speak for themselves.
Defensively, however, there have already been a few minor slip-ups. Wehen Wiesbaden, a third-division team, fought back from a 0-2 deficit in the cup before Harry Kane secured the victory in extra time.
Augsburg also scored twice in Bayern’s 3-2 win, but with an xG advantage of 3.73, Munich were clearly superior and somewhat unlucky not to have won by a bigger margin.
Offensively, everything is going according to plan for Kompany’s team: Last season, Bayern had the most dangerous attack in Europe’s top five leagues, scoring 2.91 goals per game.
This form is continuing: Harry Kane already has six goals and two assists in four games, and behind him, Michael Olise and Luis Diaz are also a constant threat.
A clear indication that Bayern will continue to dominate even against stronger opponents.
HSV form check
HSV once again revealed significant problems in attack and lost to FC St. Pauli on the second matchday.
It was the Hanseatic club’s first home game in the Bundesliga since 2018, and on this big occasion in particular, they lacked clear scoring chances – a worrying sign.
Under Merlin Polzin, HSV had only five shots on goal and scored an expected goals of just 0.35 in the Hamburg city derby. After two league games, the Rothosen are still without a goal of their own.
The departure of Davie Selke is a decisive factor here: the striker was the most successful goalscorer in the promotion from the 2nd Bundesliga last season with 22 goals.
Polzin urgently needs to find a solution to his team’s offensive woes, as HSV are far behind at the bottom of the table with an average xG of 0.38 per game.
By comparison, the only other club without a goal in the Bundesliga is Borussia Mönchengladbach, who average 1.43 expected goals per game.
