Freiburg – Stuttgart Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 3 on Saturday, 09/13/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
SC Freiburg will already be facing a tough challenge on Matchday 3 of the Bundesliga. After two defeats and seven goals conceded at the start of the season, the Breisgauers need to pull themselves together in the southern derby against VfB Stuttgart – and finally score some points.
However, my Freiburg Stuttgart tip is not focused on the “points question.” Rather, with the bet “Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals,” I am aiming for a high-scoring match. I consider the odds of around 1.90 at Bet365 to be an extremely generous offer.
Why this tip?
- The predicted xG value is 2.83
- The bet would have been successful in 5 of the last 6 SCF games
- Freiburg conceded 7 goals in the first 2 match days
Things have been rather turbulent for Stuttgart recently. In 4 of VfB’s last 5 games alone, at least three goals were scored. The recent 6-2 win in the test match against Großaspach fits the picture all too well.
If you prefer a simpler bet, you can skip the combination bet and go for the classic “over 2.5 goals” without any extras.
Here, the odds climb to around 1.70. Either way, your personal Freiburg vs. Stuttgart prediction should assume that SCF and VfB will not be satisfied with a dull 0-0 draw.
Freiburg – Stuttgart prediction & bets
For all those who support SC Freiburg, the “double chance 1X” is of course a clear choice. On the one hand, the odds are above the 1.50 mark. On the other hand, Stuttgart lost their first away game of the season 1-2 at Union Berlin. And, as an added bonus, you can pocket the Interwetten bonus with your bet.
I also find the alternative bet “Over 3.5 goals” interesting. On the last match day, the SCF defense was anything but solid and conceded four goals against 1. FC Köln. One or two mistakes are therefore also likely against Stuttgart.
The bet “Stuttgart scores in both halves” at odds of 2.90 is similar. Against Cologne, Freiburg conceded three goals before the break and one after.
What you need to know about Freiburg vs. Stuttgart betting
- Freiburg has won only four of its eleven home games in the Bundesliga in 2025 and lost five of them. During this period, they scored an average of 1.73 goals per game but conceded an average of 1.82 goals.
- Since the start of the 2023/24 season, VfB Stuttgart has scored an average of 2.06 goals per Bundesliga game – only FC Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen, and Borussia Dortmund have scored more often.
- The “Both teams to score” bet has been successful in each of Freiburg’s last six Bundesliga home games.
- Vincenzo Grifo was the most prolific player in the current Freiburg squad last season with eight league goals. In addition, the Italian winger has averaged 0.37 assists per 90 minutes over the last twelve months.
Freiburg – Stuttgart: AI tip & odds analysis
As always, our AI assistant comes into play at this point and presents its very own Freiburg Stuttgart AI prediction.
Since there is no clear favorite for the match, the AI initially suggests a “draw at halftime” prediction. The odds are strong at around 2.20. A 1-1 score at halftime is not unrealistic when you weigh up Freiburg’s home advantage against Stuttgart’s playing strengths.
I also find the risky tip “Stuttgart wins after falling behind” particularly interesting. The odds are around 7.00. And in my opinion, it’s not an unrealistic scenario that Freiburg will initially pick up the pace after a weak start to the season, but then fall apart after a possible equalizer.
As a third tip, the AI assistant has its sights set on the bet “Freiburg scores first.” This fits the previous selection like a glove. With odds of around 2.25, this tip is definitely worth considering – with or without a free bet.
The best odds for Freiburg vs. Stuttgart
The odds for Freiburg vs. Stuttgart see the visitors as slight favorites. Two disappointing results for Freiburg in the Bundesliga do not seem to have escaped the attention of the oddsmakers – the home team goes into the game as underdogs with odds of 3.25.
Freiburg currently has the weakest defense in the Bundesliga – seven goals conceded after two games. However, an “expected goals against” (xGA) value of 3.5 suggests that the hosts were also a bit unlucky over the weekend.
However, the timing of Freiburg’s two goals could be cause for concern for some. The first came on the first matchday with the score at 0-3 – when the game was basically already decided. The penalty in the 58th minute merely made the result look better.
Shortly before the international break, Maximilian Eggestein scored Freiburg’s second goal in the 84th minute with the score at 0-4 in Augsburg.
Stuttgart starts the game with a -0.25 Asian handicap. This means that if the game ends in a draw, Stuttgart bettors will get half of their stake back. Those who bet on Freiburg will receive half of the possible winnings in the event of a draw.
The Asian goal line is set at 2.75 goals for the match at the Europa-Park Stadium. Many betting enthusiasts may wonder why the value is not at least 3.0, given Freiburg’s performance so far.
Especially since three or more goals were scored in 14 of the 17 home games last season – the best ratio in this market category in the entire Bundesliga.
The fact that 65% of Stuttgart’s away games saw more than 2.5 goals scored should also encourage those betting on “over.” With exactly three goals, half the winnings are paid out on the 2.75 line. With four or more goals, the bet on “over” is considered a complete win.
Freiburg vs Stuttgart match analysis:
Freiburg pressed much higher up the pitch on the first two matchdays.
Their “passes allowed per defensive action” (PPDA) value is 10.66, which is 3.91 less than last season.
The higher defending has enabled Freiburg to create many scoring chances.
Now they face a Stuttgart defense that looked vulnerable despite their 1-0 win over Mönchengladbach. Therefore, there should be scoring chances on both sides in this match. Attacking is an essential part of Sebastian Hoeneß’s success at VfB Stuttgart.
In recent seasons, they have been one of the most prolific teams in the Bundesliga, so they will not be shy about playing offensively against a Freiburg team that has already conceded seven goals in two games.
Similar to Freiburg, Stuttgart also relies on early pressing when the opponent has the ball in deeper zones. Hoeneß’s team currently has a PPDA value of 9.34 – the third lowest in the Bundesliga.
With both teams looking to win the ball back early, there will be a lot of space behind the defensive lines. Quick passing combinations through the opponent’s pressing or direct balls into the gaps could be the deciding factor in this exciting duel.
Freiburg Form check
Freiburg suffered a 1-4 defeat in Cologne on the second matchday. The promoted team had 18 shots – a worrying sign for a team that finished fifth last season.
Julian Schuster’s team showed some improvement in their only home game of the season so far.
Although they lost 3-1 to Augsburg, the underlying data suggests that the result was unfortunate. Freiburg ended the game with an xG (expected goals) value of 2.6 – 1.26 more than their opponents.
Despite the bumpy start to the season, Vincenzo Grifo has been one of the standout players in the Freiburg team. He scored from the penalty spot in the league opener against Augsburg. Against Cologne, he also played 38 accurate passes and was a constant threat.
Johan Manzambi could also play a key role. He spent most of last season on the bench, but he has made a strong impression in the first few games of this season. His xAG (expected assisted goals) value is 0.85.
Freiburg often relies on a more direct style of play to stay compact. In attack, they will have to rely heavily on individual actions to create creative moments.
Stuttgart form check
VfB Stuttgart surprised all the experts in the 2023/24 season, finishing the Bundesliga as runners-up – ahead of FC Bayern Munich. However, they were unable to maintain this level of performance in the 2024/25 season and ended up in ninth place.
Highly regarded coach Sebastian Hoeneß remains in charge, and there are many reasons to be optimistic.
VfB Stuttgart is one of the most aggressive pressing teams in the Bundesliga – with a PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) of 9.34 this season. Only Bayern and Mainz allow fewer.
In addition, Stuttgart has several strong runners who are capable of implementing this aggressive pressing. Players such as Jamie Leweling also stand out for their game intelligence and can flexibly switch positions – making Hoeneß’s forward line difficult to predict.
This approach has made VfB one of the best offensive teams in the Bundesliga. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, they have scored an average of 2.06 goals per game. Only Bayern, Dortmund, and Leverkusen have scored more goals.
Stuttgart’s attack will continue to play a decisive role this season if the team wants to be successful. However, the team has not yet really found its rhythm in the current season.
