Wolfsburg – Cologne Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 3 on Saturday, 09/13/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
In terms of euphoria, the city of Cologne is currently developing into an enviable hotspot. Having just returned from the second division, Effzeh promptly secured its place in the top third of the table with two wins.
In particular, the recent 4-1 home win against SC Freiburg saw the Billy Goats put in a performance that few would have thought possible. My Wolfsburg vs. Cologne prediction now addresses the central question of whether another wild party can be expected at the Volkswagen Arena.
While the betting provider Winamax may not quite trust this prediction, I don’t want to stand in the way of the good mood. In my opinion, there are good reasons to speculate that the promoted team will at least not lose its third Bundesliga match.
To justify my Wolfsburg Cologne prediction, it may even be enough to point to the Lower Saxony team’s record-breaking home weakness in recent months.
Since the last home win at the Volkswagen Arena actually dates back to the first half of last season, VfL fans have now been waiting nine games for another victory.
So, after their opening win in Heidenheim, they recently missed out on drawing level with Cologne in terms of their dream start in an extremely frustrating manner against FSV Mainz…
Why this tip?
- The Wolves are winless in 9 home games
- Cologne with two opening wins for the first time in 20 years
- Marius Bülter has already collected four points
Wolfsburg – Cologne prediction & bets
Although our in-house artificial intelligence estimates the chances of an away win at just under 25 percent, this may not fully reflect VfL’s poor home form.
In my opinion, bets on the visitors offer good value – so why not go all in? For Cologne’s third win in three games, the best sports betting apps are offering almost four times the stake back.
As for the expected number of goals, I’m expecting a cautious approach in the Wolfsburg vs. Cologne prediction, as was already seen in Effzeh’s opening win in Mainz (1-0).
Since neither team has conceded a goal from open play yet, I find the under 2.5 goals particularly interesting, for which there is currently a straight odds of 2.00.
What you need to know about Wolfsburg vs. Cologne betting
- The Wolves have not lost any of their last 17 home games against Bundesliga promoted teams – 11 wins, 6 draws.
- Only Eintracht Frankfurt (24 years and 177 days) and SV Werder Bremen (25 years and 25 days) fielded a
- on average than VfL Wolfsburg (25 years and 29 days) and 1. FC
- Köln (25 years and 205 days).
- 1. FC Köln is the first promoted team since Hannover 96 (2017/18) to start a new Bundesliga season with two wins.
- The last time Köln started with two Bundesliga wins was 20 years ago. The last time they had three wins at the start of the season was in 1996 under Peter Neururer.
Wolfsburg – Cologne: AI tip & odds analysis
Although artificial intelligence has repeatedly proven to be an ingenious tool for me to track down promising Bundesliga tips, this time I am not entirely convinced by all of the Wolfsburg Cologne AI predictions.
This is already the case with the tip with a supposedly low risk. It is very possible that both teams will actually score within 90 minutes, but odds of around 1.65 are only likely to correspond to the associated risk to a limited extent.
This finding also applies to the recommendation to go for over 2.5 goals in this match. Given the probability of occurrence I assumed, the odds of 1.80 offered here simply seem far too low to me.
However, it is interesting to note that, according to AI, the match between Wolfsburg and Cologne is the most likely of all nine Bundesliga matches on the third match day to exceed the 2.5 goal mark.
However, the AI can only dispel my own mistrust with the risk tip. The suggested 2-1 victory for the Billy Goats at mega odds of 10.0 ultimately points in a direction that I have been thinking about all along!
The best odds for Wolfsburg vs. Cologne
When two undefeated teams face each other directly, it can give betting providers pause for thought. In this case, however, the relevant bookies are not finding it difficult to settle on a clear favorite.
With fairly even odds of 2.00, the Wolfsburg Cologne odds make a home win almost twice as likely as the opposite outcome: the top odds for an away win are close to 4.0.
The payouts are also comparatively lucrative in the event of a draw, which – at least in my view – is not so far-fetched.
At around 3.55, the odds offered here are slightly above the usual average. Looking at the draw and away odds, it quickly becomes clear why, in my opinion, the double chance X2 has the potential for a bet.
Since the betting providers expect a high-scoring game, goal bets with low expectations in this regard prove to be a lucrative option.
If, as was the case in Cologne’s away game in Mainz, the score is 0-0 at half-time, the most generous bookmakers will reward this with odds of around 3.00.
Such a scenario would not be entirely unusual from the perspective of the Lower Saxony team, who tend to struggle at home:
Consequently, three of the last eight games at the Volkswagen Arena ended goalless in the first half!
Wolfsburg vs Cologne match analysis:
Considering Cologne’s goal fest against Freiburg following their victory in Mainz, it may come as a bit of a surprise that the majority of bookmakers don’t see the Billy Goats as having a real chance in the upcoming match.
Perhaps the betting providers simply haven’t forgotten that the last high-flying start didn’t end well. When Cologne last started the Bundesliga with six points two decades ago, they still ended up being relegated to the lower division.
However, the balance that already exists in the promoted team’s play currently seems to suggest that this scenario will not be repeated.
While the only goal conceded so far came from a set piece, all five goals scored were textbook examples of flawless play.
At least in defensive terms, however, the Wolves are in no way inferior. VfL were only beaten by Heidenheim (free kick) and FSV Mainz (penalty) from set pieces.
Statistically, however, the Wolves cannot afford to overemphasize this fact. With xGoal values of 0.62 to 1.95, it ultimately seemed to be mainly down to chance that the Rheinhessen equalizer came in the famous crunch time.
Despite a solid start with four points, it was already clear that Lower Saxony still has a problem dominating home games through superior control of the play.
The team didn’t even suffer a classic counterattack in their home debut. Rather, 60% possession showed that Mainz’s chances stemmed from at least a partially dominant style of play.
Wolfsburg form check
Of course, it did not escape the Wolves themselves that their recent home debut lacked the hoped-for control of the game. A personnel change that the club saved until after the end of the official transfer window could now provide a remedy.
Because Danish record international Christian Eriksen was without a club after leaving Manchester United, the 33-year-old was able to make a transfer after the end of August – and now represents an exciting alternative in the squad.
While this transfer has provided new impetus, the spark now needs to come from within the team. As expected, the fact that the last home win is now almost eight months in the past does not leave the VfL fans cold.
Wolfsburg fans are not known for their big emotions anyway, but against Cologne, it will take increased effort to knock the euphoric promoted team off their stride in every respect.
Cologne form check
While Wolfsburg’s solid start to the season is being viewed with a certain degree of composure, the initial assessment in Cologne is, as expected, much more enthusiastic.
While Cologne have had to practice patience in recent years, their current third place in the table almost seems like the promise of a golden future.
However, the Billy Goats wouldn’t be the Billy Goats if the first problems weren’t already looming on the horizon even in this moment of triumph.
Luca Kilian’s serious injury on Monday came as a real shock. After tearing his cruciate ligament for the third time in just under two years, the 26-year-old’s career is now in jeopardy.
