Bayern – Werder Bremen Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 5 on Friday, 09/26/2025 at 8:30 p.m.
0.13 – you should remember this microscopic value before kick-off tonight, as well as my reference to the first-class Interwetten bonus.
That’s because that was the combined xG value of Werder in their two matches against Bayern last year, both of which, unsurprisingly, ended in defeat without them scoring a goal.
These initial facts alone make it seem extremely difficult to place any confidence in the visitors from the Weser at the start of the fifth matchday when it comes to Bayern Bremen predictions.
My Bayern Bremen prediction therefore goes in the only conceivable direction! I emphasize the possibility of an early goal by the record champions, which could come within the first quarter of an hour.
After all, the Munich team are anything but slow starters – 10 of their 18 Bundesliga goals so far have been scored before half-time.
This game is crying out for goals and not a tough 0-0 draw – both old and new sports betting providers know this!
In Bremen’s eleven away games in 2025, a total of 44 goals have been scored – a balanced goal difference of 22:22.
That’s an average of four goals per game, which makes it clear that Werder’s away games are rarely boring.
With this record, it’s clear when visiting the Allianz Arena: the probability of multiple goals is extremely high for every Bayern Bremen tip.
Bayern – Werder Bremen prediction & bets
The Bayern Bremen tip 1st goal scorer: Harry Kane at 3.75 in the Bwin app has of course made it onto my shortlist. The Englishman is simply omnipresent and has scored 2+ goals in each of his last three competitive appearances for the record champions.
Based on that, I also have Kane with at least 2 goals at slightly lower Bayern Werder Bremen odds of around 3.40 on my list.
I don’t really need to say anything else, as perhaps the best Bundesliga striker of all time seems to be scoring from all positions at the moment.
What you need to consider when betting on Bayern vs. Werder Bremen
- Bayern Munich has scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in the league this season – more than any other team in Europe’s top 5 leagues. Last season, the average was already 2.91 goals per game.
- Bremen has conceded ten goals in four league games; only Union Berlin (11) has conceded more. The North Germans also have the fourth-highest xGA value (8.74).
- Bayern has kept a clean sheet in six of its last nine Bundesliga home games at the Allianz Arena.
- “Both teams to score – No” has been successful in six of Bremen’s last ten competitive games.
- Harry Kane is the Bundesliga’s biggest xG overperformer, scoring eight goals with an expected goals value of 3.18 (+4.27).
Bayern – Werder Bremen: AI tip & odds analysis
FCB to win without conceding at odds of around 1.90 is an obvious suggestion generated by our Bayern Werder Bremen AI prediction.
The northerners hardly stood a chance against Bayern last season – and I would venture to guess that Kompany’s team has become even stronger in the new 2025/26 season.
A Bayern win with HC -3 at odds of around 2.46 also has good chances of success as a Bayern Bremen tip, especially if the hosts play Hau-den-Lukas with SVW as expected. In any case, it should be a one-sided game, there’s no question about that!
Michael Olise to score at 2.20 is another selection from our AI betting friend that I like. The Frenchman has contributed greatly to his team’s success, but has not scored himself in 3 competitive games.
The best odds for Bayern vs. Werder Bremen
When Bayern Munich meets Werder Bremen, it sounds like a classic matchup to many – but to the oddsmakers, it’s more like a foregone conclusion.
Bet365 and Bet-at-home.de put it into perspective: 1.11 for an FCB win, a whopping 12.00 for a draw, and an unbelievable 20.00 if Werder actually manages to trip up the Munich team.
On paper, it’s an imbalance, but in practice, it’s the eternal question: will the favorites play cat and mouse, or will there be a brave underdog moment?
So if you like to take risks, you can give it a try, but in my opinion, a lot would have to happen for a Bayern Werder Bremen bet on the visitors to really be worthwhile.
Bayern vs Werder Bremen match analysis:
Bayern should dominate SV Werder Bremen this season in a similar way to last season (2024/25).
Back then, Bremen even managed an xG value of 0.00 in the first match, which was as smooth as glass!
The North Germans simply had no chance against the power and, above all, the defensive compactness of the Munich team.
This season, Bayern are even stronger than in 2024/25. That’s why I don’t see SV Werder getting anything out of this game. The Munich team play wide, pin Bremen back for 90 minutes and leave little room for relief.
However, late goals are unlikely: Bremen is one of only two teams that has not conceded a goal after the 75th minute in this Bundesliga season.
Everything points to a commanding performance from Bayern, with Bremen only posing a threat on rare occasions.
Bayern form check
Bayern go into their home game against Werder Bremen on the back of an impressive run. They have won seven competitive games in a row and, under Vincent Kompany’s leadership, the record champions currently seem almost unstoppable.
In the Bundesliga, Munich has scored a whopping 18 goals in four games and conceded only three – a clear demonstration of offensive power and defensive stability.
The recent 4-1 win over Hoffenheim underlines their dominance, as does the 3-1 victory in their Champions League opener against Chelsea. With this mixture of enthusiasm, efficiency, and international experience, Bayern now want to extend their streak against Bremen.
The statistics clearly favor the record champions in the Bayern Bremen prediction: Bayern have won six of the last eight direct duels at their own stadium.
In addition, Harry Kane is currently in top form – eight goals in just four league games speak for themselves.
Everything points to Munich capitalizing on their momentum and continuing their winning streak, while Bremen struggles for stability and defensive security.
Werder Bremen form check
Werder Bremen have been inconsistent so far, with no sign of consistency. Their convincing 4-0 win against Borussia Mönchengladbach was followed by a clear 3-0 defeat against Freiburg.
Bremen are likely to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation on Friday. Mio Bachhaus will be in goal, with Sugawara, Friedl, Coulibaly, and Agu forming a back four in front of him.
Lynen and Stage will form the defensive midfield, while Puertas, Schmid, and Njinmah will be tasked with driving the offense – Grüll is expected to be the lone striker.
It is still unclear whether Samuel Mbangula will be fit to play. His speed and unpredictability could be a decisive factor in the offensive play. If he is missing, as was the case in the recent 0-3 defeat to Freiburg, Bremen’s attacking momentum will be noticeably weakened.
