NBA Playoffs 2023/24, 2nd Round, Game 1, Sunday, 05.05.2024
Minnesota was built in the offseason to take down the defending champions. That’s because a number of personnel and tactical changes have been made since the end of the preseason, including preventing another playoff loss to Denver.
A year later, the young squad from Minneapolis is therefore more experienced and much scarier than it was in 2023.
In my Nuggets Timberwolves betting tip, I will therefore blatantly state the opinion that the home side will lose the first game of this second round of the play-offs
Last year, the Nuggets defeated their opponents from Minnesota State in the first round of the playoffs with a 4-1 victory, although the last three games were really hard-fought.
At the time, however, the Wolves were missing a key player in Jaden McDaniels, while Bruce Brown played an important role for Denver and later became a champion.
However, Brown is no longer part of the team as he now plays for the Toronto Raptors, so the Timberwolves should have a much easier time in the half-court this time around.
Incidentally, only one win separated the two teams in the regular season. Denver will therefore have to get ready for a duel at eye level
It will be close, above all because the Timberwolves have made an outstanding start to the play-offs. Although they went into the series against the Suns as underdogs, they played cat and mouse with perhaps the best starting five of the last decade.
With an average lead of 15 points per match, the Wolves won all four games and caused what I consider to be the biggest surprise in a long time.
Minnesota already had the best defense in the league during the regular season and also achieved an outstanding offensive rating of 123.2 in a total of 192 minutes in these playoff games – an absolute best.
I stick to my guns: sports bettors could all be surprised at how much trouble this squad could cause the defending champions in Game 1…
With Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards, the visitors have top-class defenders at their disposal – and then there’s Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who came to the NBA as an offensive player and has developed into a defensive specialist in Minnesota.
That means a Jamal Murray – who will have to back up Nikola Jokic at forward for the Nuggets – will be under constant pressure as Minnesota can rotate almost at will.
However, this could pose a problem. If Murray can be taken out of the game, the outstanding Serbian could also struggle to conjure up points as usual
As a result, it’s worth reaching for the Betway app these days and selecting a win for the away team directly and without inhibitions on the display and placing a small double-digit euro bet.
The odds in the event of success are 2.60 on average, which I personally find completely convincing. In contrast, a value of around 1.53 beckons for an opening victory for the defending champions.
But keep in mind: The way the Wolves recently handled the powerful Suns, you shouldn’t be surprised if they show Denver their limits. I certainly wouldn’t be!
The Wolves couldn’t answer a question against Phoenix, but the circumstances weren’t favorable either. After all, they outplayed the Suns to the point where the game wasn’t even close.
To wit: Can they hold on in crunch time? According to the NBA’s definition, there were only three minutes of crunch time for the Wolves against the Suns, as everything was clear early in three of the four games
But slight doubts remain! Will Edwards and Towns make the right decisions here? Are they a match for the Nuggets in terms of fitness? The Lakers weren’t, which is why they lost in five games.
The athleticism favors Minnesota, but Denver has played 13 series (73 games) in six years with similar personnel. In the regular season, Denver was the best crunchtime team, while the Wolves only finished 27th.
For my part, however, I trust the visitors to hold their nerve in the decisive moments. Some of the Wolves’ key players have developed enormously over the last 12 months
Conclusion: This series promises to be extremely captivating.
The Wolves are probably the most challenging matchup in the Western Conference for the Nuggets, but at the same time they have the best player on the court in Jokic, who can dominate a game at any time.
Minnesota dominated rebounding against the Suns, but that won’t work against Denver, so a lot will depend on hitting shots. There may be some uncertainty here, but Edwards could make up for a lot of it.
The Nuggets, by the way, have won an impressive 14 of their last 15 playoff home games. This could tip the scales in the Nuggets’ favor in the long run:
But in tonight’s opening game of this series, I still expect a surprising win by the underdog for now in my Nuggets Wolves tip!
My prediction: Win Timberwolves
