Premier League, Sunday, 05.05.2024
West Ham United are aiming to win both Premier League games against the Blues in the same season for only the third time ever, having previously only managed to do so in the 2002/03 and 2019/20 seasons.
However, that’s just the tip of the statistical iceberg, which is why I’m awarding the Hammers goals but no wins in my Chelsea West Ham betting tip.
Their coach alone represents a good reason to avoid an away win bet on Sunday …
Chelsea v West Ham is nothing other than a qualifying match in the battle for a possible European Cup appearance in the upcoming 2024/25 season.
The loser of this game will probably see some of their stars move to clubs that guarantee them a starting place in an international club competition at the end of the season.
That could mean that I’ll have to place my Cole Palmer goal bets on another club in the future. Because the 21-year-old can be relied on in the betting shop almost every matchday!
Cole Palmer has already scored or provided an assist for Chelsea against 13 different Premier League clubs this season
Also interesting: Only six other players have scored or assisted against 14 different teams in a Premier League season for the Blues, most recently Eden Hazard in 2018/19 (15).
And indeed, I remain confident that the youngster could now also score against WHU. Especially as the statistics leave no doubt that this is a real favorite opponent of the blue and white fan masses at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea have lost just one of their last 17 Premier League home games against West Ham United (12 wins, 4 draws), a 1-0 defeat in November 2019 under Frank Lampard.
Digging deeper into the data, I’ve found further evidence that, with a bit of luck, a goal bet on almost any Blues player could pay off.
West Ham have not conceded a goal in their last 15 Premier League games, with the Hammers only going a longer run without conceding in the country’s top flight between March and November 2008 (24 games).
And after their 5-2 defeat against Crystal Palace on April 21, I can also see a long, hard day’s work ahead for Areola or Fabianski on Sunday. It was no different in the subsequent 2-2 draw against Liverpool last weekend.
In any case, my motto for the upcoming duel is: goals, goals, goals
Do you need any more evidence of a thunderstorm of goals pouring over Stamford Bridge? In five of West Ham’s last 10 Premier League games, both teams involved have scored two or more goals each, including the last two games.
In total, this has already occurred in 9 of their 35 point games so far this season, with the last time it happened more frequently being in the 2015/16 season (11 times).
And with the Blues’ recent performances also being accompanied by a veritable hail of goals, I remain optimistic about my over-3.5-goal add-on condition.
Especially as the award-winning bookmaker Interwetten is already offering me fair odds of 1.93 for this scenario alone. But as you know, I go one step further in my Chelsea West Ham betting tip …
The best argument for the double chance 1X option, which I have added to my soccer bet, is not so much the manageable odds of around 1.23 that providers are currently offering in this context.
Rather, it is the horrendous record of the opposing head coach that makes it almost impossible for a data analyst to bet his money on the Hammers.
Hold on, and hold on tight! Because West Ham manager David Moyes has never won an away Premier League game against Chelsea in 18 attempts (7 draws, 11 defeats).
The only thing that doesn’t really suit me from a data point of view is that Chelsea have only won one of their last 13 Premier League games played on a Sunday (5 draws, 7 defeats).
But I can overlook that, because the offer of 2.47 for the DC 1X & Over 3.5 goals scenario has been quoted generously enough at bookmaker Sunmaker not to bother me too much.
Little hint: The first goal won’t decide this game, that’s for sure! In Premier League games between Chelsea and West Ham, the team that scored first has lost on 10 occasions.
Only Southampton v Tottenham (13), Chelsea v Sunderland (11) and Liverpool v Newcastle (11) have seen more Premier League defeats for the team that took the lead first!
Conclusion: There will be plenty of goals on Sunday, two of them possibly even before half-time.
After conceding five goals against Crystal Palace, Moyes decided to try out a different goalkeeper against Liverpool, but it didn’t make much difference to the blunders of his defenders.
I trust both my impressions and the data in my Chelsea West Ham tip and they predict that the “Hammers” could score goals, maybe even two, but will still not be victorious in the end …
My tip: Double chance 1X & Over 3.5 goals
