Luxembourg – Germany Tip World Cup Qualifiers, Group A, Matchday 9, 14/11/2025 at 20:45 CET
Although there are supposedly no more dwarfs in European football, Luxembourg has always stretched in vain for a point in all four games so far in the World Cup qualifiers.
In the first leg a month ago, the German national team was able to exude something like sovereignty against the eternal underdog. In Sinsheim, the Nagelsmann received a smooth 4-0 victory.
My Luxembourg Germany tip now assumes only a slightly closer event in the second leg – and considers at least a favorite victory with at least a three-goal lead to be sufficiently likely.
Although fortunate circumstances (sending-off, set-piece goals) also contributed to the clear victory of the German team in the first leg – but they certainly have every reason to aim for a clear result in the Stade de Luxembourg, not only in my opinion.
In order to go to the 2026 World Cup with justified hopes (current title odds in the Interwetten app: 13.0), the four-time world champions must not only first qualify for the finals.
After all, it is at least as important that consistently good performances and results are needed to push their backs again after a rather mediocre qualification so far.
After the latest performances, there is a risk of dwindling some belief within the team that they can set themselves very big goals in the coming summer.
In this respect, my Luxembourg Germany forecast naturally also resonates with a certain amount of hope that the German national team will finally get its act together.
However, I can also base my assumptions on the AI forecasts presented in more detail below, which make a favorite victory appear to be a largely watertight box with a probability of around 90 percent.
Luxembourg vs. Germany AI Predictions:
In general, I can report an almost unusually large number of similarities with artificial intelligence in the Luxembourg Germany AI forecast. So the minimum three German goals needed for my prediction don’t seem to be the big problem.
From a calculated DFB xGoals value of 3.62, the AI derives the tip Over 3.5 German goals. If the German team takes at least as many shots as in the first leg, it will return the ample double stake.
Even the predicted victory of the favorites to nil at a rather meager odds of just under 1.60 would play directly into the hands of my own tip.
Since Luxembourg has only scored a single goal after four qualifying games, a successfully defended clean sheet seems to be quite obvious.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Luxembourg |
Draw |
Victory Germany |
| 3.6% |
7.2% |
89.2% |
In view of the clearly expected conditions, it is almost as obvious that artificial intelligence prefers to pounce on goalscorer bets in its further forecasts.
Should Nick Woltemade score again for the DFB team after his first goal in Northern Ireland, the best bookmakers will return around 1.85 times the stake.
A brace at odds of 2.65 then slowly makes the ex-Stuttgart player interesting for high rollers; a hat-trick that is not even completely absurd is then even quoted with a smooth 10.0.
With El Mala, however, the AI also has the possible newcomer of German football on the bill: With a goal rate of 2.50, however, a goal by the Cologne player seems to be too low.
What you need to know about Luxembourg vs. Germany betting
- Luxembourg has won only one of eight games in 2025, against Sweden (1-0) in March. The 2024 calendar year was similar, with only Kazakhstan defeated in the national team’s ten games (2-1).
- Four-time world champions Germany needed a first international goal from Newcastle’s Nick Woltemade to beat Northern Ireland (0-1) in their final group game. It took Germany 70 minutes to force Northern Ireland goalkeeper Bailey Peacock-Farrell to make a first save.
- The last time Germany was rated with similar odds away from home was in the qualifying phase for the 2022 World Cup against Armenia. The Germans won 4-1 and thus recorded their seventh consecutive victory under former coach Hansi Flick.
- Both David Raum and Florian Wirtz have already scored a direct free-kick goal for the Germans in the current qualifying campaign.
