Mainz – Hoffenheim Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 11 on Friday, 21/11/2025 at 20:30 CET
Just as I’m happy that the Betano promo code exists, TSG fans hate the international break that is now coming to an end. They would have loved to see their boys continue their victory march without interruption.
According to my Mainz Hoffenheim tip, however, the break will not have upset the Kraichgau team. The recent victory over RBL was simply too strong for that.
Would you like more good betting reasons to reach for the sports betting app? No Bundesliga team has scored more points away from home than “Hoffe”, and their away win odds have been made extremely generous this Friday. Of course, I’ll strike right away!
For me, the only real opponent of my Mainz Hoffenheim prediction is the direct comparison – and that’s exactly what should give TSG fans little courage.
Surprisingly, Hoffenheim have won only two of the last ten Bundesliga duels with FSV Mainz 05 (2 draws, 6 defeats) and have only picked up eight of a possible 30 points in this period.
A look at Mainz’s home games is even clearer: Rheinhessen have won all of their last four league home games against TSG – with an impressive aggregate score of 9-1 and three clean sheets.
Mainz – Hoffenheim Prediction & Betting
I deliberately head for a betting provider with Paysafecard for my Mainz Hoffenheim tip – on the one hand because of the great betting odds and on the other hand because of the uncomplicated means of payment. There I will put my betting plans into action.
I choose over 2.5 goals at odds around 1.62 because our internal data model predicts an xG value of 2.90 and thus almost exactly three goals. I even think this assessment is a bit too conservative!
Furthermore, I can also be enthusiastic about the selection Hoffenheim: Over 1.5 goals at values around 2.05 – also because the offensive power of the Kraichgau team can easily be proven.
TSG is one of only five Bundesliga teams to score an average of over 2 goals per game this season – 2.10 to be precise.
What you need to know about Mainz vs. Hoffenheim betting
- Mainz (5 points) occupy the last two places in the Bundesliga table after ten games together with Heidenheim.
- TSG Hoffenheim equalled FC Bayern Munich’s away record in the 2025/26 season with 13 points from five away games.
- Mainz are considered favourites, as they have won four home games in a row against Hoffenheim.
- Only Bayern players Michael Olise (36), Harry Kane (34) and Luis Diaz (32) have had more shots on goal in the Bundesliga than Hoffenheim’s Fisnik Asllani (26).
Mainz – Hoffenheim: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Mainz Hoffenheim AI prediction is even more aggressive than I am in some respects. You’ve heard two TSG goals from me? Our digital competition even goes one step further.
It recommends the selection Hoffenheim: Over 2.5 goals, which will give you a hammer rate of about 4.20 if successful.
And if you have the necessary willingness to take risks, this could actually be something for you. After all, the Kraichgau team have already cracked this mark with their own hands in every single one of their last three Bundesliga games.
Grischa Prömel trifft is another idea of our AI, which is not only well founded, but also promises a nice payout with odds around 5.00.
I also trust this player bet because he is on a run right now: For the first time since May 2022, Prömel has scored in two consecutive Bundesliga games.
What’s more, Harry Kane is the only player in the league with at least 300 minutes of play who is involved in goals with a higher frequency than TSG’s midfield engine (every 65 minutes).
The best odds for Mainz vs. Hoffenheim
Now let’s take a look at the betting markets together to see what the Mainz Hoffenheim odds look like and what tendencies the bookies are setting.
The price structure seems surprisingly balanced – a real indication that both teams are assessed on an equal footing.
For a victory of Mainz you currently receive a 2.45, which indicates a slight outsider role, but by no means a small chance.
The bookmakers see Mainz ahead especially if they determine the pace of the game and act more consistently in the final third.
The draw is valued at 3.60 – a market that often becomes interesting when two teams have a similar structure and could neutralize each other tactically. This is exactly what could happen here.
After all, predicting Hoffenheim as the winner promises plenty of “value” at values around 2.70, especially because of the offensive power and the ability to set quick accents in transition situations.
The bottom line is that the Mainz Hoffenheim odds still provide a narrow picture – perfect for anyone looking for small odds shifts or value between two teams that are almost equally rated.
Mainz vs Hoffenheim Match Analysis:
Mainz and Hoffenheim meet in a trend-setting duel that is of enormous importance for both teams – albeit for completely different reasons.
For the Rheinhessen, currently in 17th place, it is about finally finding a way out of the relegation zone and getting the season back on track.
Hoffenheim, on the other hand, sees this game as an opportunity to consolidate their place in the upper region of the table and climb further up.
Both teams will act with offensive intentions. Mainz and Hoffenheim also have the lowest PPDA values in the Bundesliga – a clear indication of aggressive run-ups and high pressing on both sides.
Mainz will stay true to their line and try to disrupt Hoffenheim’s build-up play early on and thus force chances.
Hoffenheim, on the other hand, who also rely on early ball wins and look stable in possession, want to use this intensity to steer the game directly in their own direction.
What is particularly interesting is how similar the two teams are in terms of pressing: they lead the league in terms of ball wins in the final third, and the difference between them is only 0.01 in this metric.
That’s exactly why the game is likely to be decided in the centre – where the pressing mechanisms take effect and rhythm control is created. Whoever gains the upper hand in midfield and sets the pace has the best cards to win this intense match.
Mainz Form Check
Mainz continue to search for the form that led them to sixth place last season – and the central question remains how much Bo Henriksen’s team will suffer from the additional burden of European matches.
The early problems are clearly reflected in the table: Mainz is in 17th place with only five points.
Despite decent values in the offensive third – an average of 28.60 ball contacts in the opponent’s penalty area – the Rheinhessen hardly manage to convert this presence into goals.
This is also reflected in the clear xG underperformance value of -2.24 and a weak chance conversion rate of only 8.4 %.
Defensively, the misery continues: Mainz have conceded at least one goal in 21 Bundesliga games in a row and remain particularly vulnerable when opponents switch quickly.
In pressing, on the other hand, the team shows clear strengths. With a PPDA of 10.2 and an average of 14 pressing sequences per game, Mainz is one of the most aggressive teams in the league, only Hoffenheim and Dortmund are higher.
But this approach does not constantly lead to dangerous offensive actions – the effort clearly exceeds the return. Mainz remains a team that invests a lot, but has not yet found a way to convert its intensity into points.
Hoffenheim form check
Hoffenheim are currently the most in-form team in the Bundesliga. Four wins in a row – including an impressive 3-1 after coming from behind against RB Leipzig – underline the stability of Christian Ilzer’s team.
Everything is also going according to plan away from home: Hoffenheim are unbeaten in nine games away from home across all competitions.
The figures prove this strong phase. With an expected goal value (xG) of 1.68 per game on average, Hoffenheim ranks fourth in the league.
The chance conversion rate of 16.26 % is also one of the top four teams and shows how efficiently the guests use their opportunities.
In addition, there is a clear approach to play: over 52% possession on average and an extremely high pressing pressure, visible in the league’s lowest 9.8 PPDA.
This combination of dominance, intensity and resilience is what makes Hoffenheim so dangerous at the moment. Particularly noteworthy is the ability to turn games around after falling behind – a strong indication of mental stability.
Sixth place is therefore more than deserved, and if this form continues, a serious attack on the Europa League places is absolutely realistic.
