Burnley – Chelsea Tip Premier League, Matchday 12 on Saturday, 22/11/25 at 13:30 CET
According to our computer-generated Burnley Chelsea forecast, the Londoners should clearly prevail. And it is precisely on this prediction that I will bet a free bet that is also easy for you to redeem.
Even from the point of view of a neutral betting expert like me, there are good reasons to assume that the Blues will actually hold their own against the relegation candidate on his own playing surface.
After all, Enzo Maresca’s team is the one that generates the highest goal threat in the league with an xG value of 20.7. They also lead the Premier League in both shots on goal and big chances. It is impossible for the Clarets to stop this force of nature!
Burnley vs. Chelsea AI Predictions:
If our Burnley Chelsea AI prediction is to be trusted, then do it right! The suggestion Chelsea: Over 1.5 goals at odds around 1.60 at Bet365 is great anyway. Maybe even one or the other Blues goal could be added.
Burnley is the barn door of the league. They have only kept two clean sheets in their last 31 Premier League games and have suffered at least one brace in five of their last six games alone.
Since Chelsea is probably England’s best offense, there could even be the possibility of a hat-trick or even a four-goal haul this time.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Win Burnley |
Draw |
Win Chelsea |
| 16.1% |
20.5% |
63.4% |
Joao Pedro scores is basically a good selection at odds around 2.20. Especially since the Portuguese is on the verge of netting in his third Premier League game in a row.
The only thing holding me back from declaring this proposal a first-class Burnley Chelsea tip is the fact that Joao Pedro has never scored in four games against the Clarets.
Victory Chelsea without conceding a goal at odds around 2.40 is last but not least the riskiest, but by no means the worst prediction.
Especially since Burnley have the fewest shots (90), the lowest expected goal value (xG, 8.3), the lowest possession (38.6%), the most shots allowed (192) and the highest expected goals conceded (xGA, 24.0) this Premier League season.
What you need to consider when betting on Burnley vs. Chelsea
- No team has a lower expected goals (xG) record after eleven games than Burnley with 8.30 xG (0.75 xG per 90 minutes).
- Chelsea (5.27 xG) is one of the six teams with over 5.0 xG from set pieces. Only Arsenal (10) scored more goals from set-pieces than the Blues (8).
- Burnley conceded three of the four home goals before half-time this season.
- Eight of Chelsea’s last nine away games this season have ended with over 2.5 goals in total.
- Despite playing in central midfield, Enzo Fernandez (Chelsea) has scored 4.59 xG this Premier League season. Only four other players have a higher xG value.
